TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.10×

AZ @ COL

Coors Field · 8:40p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 5 mph slight_out 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

6:40p

+1 ↑

7:40p

+1 ↑

8:40p

+1 ↑

9:40p

+1 ↑

10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · +1 FIT

Best of game Hunter Goodman conv 30 · vs Soroka ⟷ Nolan Arenado conv 37 · vs Freeland → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Michael Soroka RHP · AZ

leak 29

0.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.59 · leakiest side of this game

1 Hunter Goodman — C+ ●●●●●

2 Cole Carrigg — D ●●●○○

3 Kyle Karros — D ●●○○○

FADE Kyle Freeland LHP · COL

leak 24

1.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.95 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Arenado — C ●●●●●

2 Corbin Carroll — C+ ●●●●○

3 Gabriel Moreno — C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: Match 29.7% · 14D pace 30.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Freeland Edge — 0.208 · 85.0 · 8.1% 45.5% 29.5% F B O C 58

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Soroka — 0.283 · 90.0 · 10.9% 30.0% 29.7% F B O C+ 64

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Freeland — 0.230 · 91.8 · 11.2% 30.0% 23.1% F B O C+ 62

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Freeland Edge — 0.174 · 89.2 · 9.0% 30.0% 20.2% F B O C 53

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Freeland Edge — 0.187 · 90.2 · 9.8% 0.0% 15.0% F B O C 52

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Soroka Edge — 0.241 · 89.6 · 8.7% 0.0% 14.8% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· COL Cole Carrigg vs Soroka Edge — 0.190 · 87.9 · 6.7% 15.4% 18.7% F B O D 44

· COL Kyle Karros vs Soroka — 0.162 · 89.5 · 8.2% 18.2% 11.9% F B O D 44

· COL Connor Norby HOT vs Soroka — 0.135 · 87.2 · 7.8% 11.1% 7.4% F B O D 38

· AZ Tim Tawa COOL vs Freeland Edge — 0.151 · 90.5 · 10.2% 10.0% 8.1% F B O D 48

· AZ Jordan Lawlar vs Freeland Edge — 0.187 · 87.5 · 9.0% 0.0% 13.6% F B O D 48

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs Soroka Edge — 0.193 · 85.3 · 6.7% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 38

· AZ Jose Fernandez COOL vs Freeland Edge — 0.090 · 88.0 · 6.3% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 36

· COL Zac Veen COOL vs Soroka Edge — 0.170 · 86.5 · 8.6% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 39

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Freeland Edge — 0.126 · 87.4 · 5.7% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 38

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Soroka Edge — 0.150 · 84.2 · 6.3% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 33

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Freeland Edge — 0.111 · 87.4 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 35

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Soroka Edge — 0.116 · 89.7 · 4.2% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Kyle Freeland — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Michael Soroka — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Carroll Arenado Moreno Goodman Carrigg Karros

Legend

attack side — vs Soroka fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Nolan Arenado — · 58

Hunter Goodman — · 64

Corbin Carroll — · 62

Gabriel Moreno — · 53

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.00× Wind 5 mph slight_out 80°F open

↑

2 mph · slight_out

70°F

6:40p · peak

↑

2 mph · slight_out

70°F

7:40p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

70°F

8:40p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

70°F

9:40p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

70°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.10× 80°F, wind 5 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kyle Freeland · LHP 1.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.95 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 62 C+ — · 15 0.230 91.8 11.2% 18.2%vs LHP 402 14.2% 30.0% 23.1% 23

2 Nolan Arenado 58 C — WARM 27 0.208 85.0 8.1% 32.3%vs LHP 389 17.2% 45.5% 29.5% 31

3 Gabriel Moreno 53 C — · 56 0.174 89.2 9.0% 14.3%vs LHP 399 12.1% 30.0% 20.2% 35

4 Ketel Marte 52 C — COOL 67 0.187 90.2 9.8% 27.3%vs LHP 408 13.9% 0.0% 15.0% 43

5 Jordan Lawlar 48 D — WARM 92 0.187 87.5 9.0% 17.6%vs LHP 392 13.3% 0.0% 13.6% 20

6 Tim Tawa 48 D — COOL 98 0.151 90.5 10.2% 0.0%vs LHP 399 8.9% 10.0% 8.1% 28

7 Ildemaro Vargas 38 D — COOL 178 0.126 87.4 5.7% 17.6%vs LHP 396 4.3% 0.0% 9.4% 20

8 Jose Fernandez 36 D — COOL 193 0.090 88.0 6.3% 7.5% 409 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% 3

9 Geraldo Perdomo 35 D — COOL 202 0.111 87.4 5.1% 3.6%vs LHP 383 5.7% 0.0% 7.5% 34

vs Michael Soroka · RHP 0.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.59 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 64 C+ — COOL 10 0.283 90.0 10.9% 35.0%vs RHP 408 23.8% 30.0% 29.7% 30

2 Mickey Moniak 51 C — WARM 75 0.241 89.6 8.7% 21.8%vs RHP 416 16.0% 0.0% 14.8% 19

3 Cole Carrigg 44 D — WARM 128 0.190 87.9 6.7% 17.5%vs RHP 407 9.8% 15.4% 18.7% 36

4 Kyle Karros 44 D — WARM 132 0.162 89.5 8.2% 18.2%vs RHP 418 11.3% 18.2% 11.9% 33

5 Zac Veen 39 D — COOL 167 0.170 86.5 8.6% 16.7%vs RHP 407 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 10

6 Jake Mccarthy 38 D — WARM 173 0.193 85.3 6.7% 15.1%vs RHP 415 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 47

7 Connor Norby 38 D — HOT 182 0.135 87.2 7.8% 11.8%vs RHP 395 6.8% 11.1% 7.4% 30

8 Tj Rumfield 33 D — COOL 215 0.150 84.2 6.3% 12.0%vs RHP 412 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 34

9 Troy Johnston 30 D — COOL 235 0.116 89.7 4.2% 4.0%vs RHP 411 1.9% 0.0% 6.2% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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