Susceptible Pitchers
The most HR-prone arms in baseball right now - a top-50 composite ranking using official season HR/IP, FanGraphs season stats, THR scored-pool results, and weekly report movement.
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-07-21T17:02:23-04:00
HR Susceptibility Rankings · 2026-07-21
| # | Pitcher | 7d Rank |
Tier
Based on composite susceptibility score. 🔥 Extreme: 75+ ⚠️ High: 55–74 📊 Elevated: 35–54 📉 Moderate: <35 |
Score
Composite 0–100 score: HR/FB% — 30% HR/IP — 25% Total HRs — 20% FIP-xFIP gap — 15% Pool HR rate — 10% Normalized across 543 qualified pitchers. |
Score +/- Change in composite susceptibility score versus the same as-of report 7 days earlier. The THR scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date; validated snapshots preserve the full pre-game view. | HRs | IP |
HR/IP
Home runs allowed divided by innings pitched, derived from official season HR and IP columns. League avg: 0.134. Above .167 equals 1.5 HR/9. Above .222 equals 2.0 HR/9. |
HR/FB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | Gap | Pool |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Luis Morales
ATH
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | -0.8 | 5 | 12.0 | 0.417 | 31.2% | 11.32 | 11.32 | 7.98 | +3.34 | 4/17 | |
| 2 |
Dean Kremer
BAL
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | -2.5 | 9 75th | 25.0 | 0.360 | 31.0% | 6.35 | 6.35 | 3.48 | +2.87 | 7/33 | |
| 3 |
Chris Roycroft
STL
🎯
|
+1 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 5 | 16.3 | 0.307 | 45.5% | 7.69 | 7.69 | 4.75 | +2.94 | · | |
| 4 |
Jameson Taillon
CHC
🎯
|
+1 | ⚠️ High | -0.3 | 22 99th | 71.0 | 0.310 | 23.2% | 6.49 | 6.49 | 4.55 | +1.94 | 18/123 | |
| 5 |
Steven Cruz
KC
🎯
|
-2 | ⚠️ High | -0.9 | 9 75th | 33.0 | 0.273 | 34.6% | 5.76 | 5.76 | 3.44 | +2.32 | 4/15 | |
| 6 |
Jeffrey Springs
ATH
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | -0.7 | 26 100th | 98.7 | 0.263 | 20.2% | 5.98 | 5.98 | 4.59 | +1.39 | 30/158 | |
| 7 |
Luis Curvelo
TEX
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 5 | 10.7 | 0.467 | 26.3% | 8.76 | 8.76 | 5.45 | +3.31 | · | |
| 8 |
Ken Waldichuk
WSH
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 10.3 | 0.388 | 33.3% | 8.39 | 8.39 | 5.16 | +3.23 | · | |
| 9 |
Zack Littell
WSH
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | -0.1 | 25 100th | 94.3 | 0.265 | 18.7% | 6.35 | 6.35 | 5.12 | +1.23 | 23/126 | |
| 10 |
Taijuan Walker
PHI
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | -0.8 | 8 | 22.7 | 0.352 | 24.2% | 7.82 | 7.82 | 5.51 | +2.31 | 4/18 | |
| 11 |
Kodai Senga
NYM
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | -0.4 | 12 86th | 40.0 | 0.300 | 27.9% | 7.00 | 7.00 | 4.78 | +2.22 | 9/79 | |
| 12 |
Hurston Waldrep
ATL
|
+3 | ⚠️ High | -0.4 | 3 | 10.7 | 0.280 | 37.5% | 8.48 | 8.48 | 6.00 | +2.48 | 1/9 | |
| 13 |
Brady Singer
CIN
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | -0.7 | 22 99th | 99.7 | 0.221 | 22.2% | 5.52 | 5.52 | 4.20 | +1.32 | 26/151 | |
| 14 |
Max Scherzer
TOR
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | -0.8 | 9 75th | 26.7 | 0.337 | 22.5% | 7.83 | 7.83 | 5.79 | +2.04 | 10/44 | |
| 15 |
Aaron Bummer
ATL
|
+3 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 6 | 16.7 | 0.359 | 30.0% | 8.24 | 8.24 | 5.44 | +2.80 | · | |
| 16 |
Aaron Nola
PHI
|
+1 | ⚠️ High | -0.3 | 24 100th | 105.3 | 0.228 | 20.7% | 5.10 | 5.10 | 3.85 | +1.25 | 22/158 | |
| 17 | -1 | ⚠️ High | -0.5 | 23 99th | 98.3 | 0.234 | 21.1% | 6.25 | 6.25 | 4.94 | +1.31 | 17/122 | ||
| 18 |
Ryan Weiss
HOU
|
+1 | ⚠️ High | -0.4 | 8 | 26.0 | 0.308 | 27.6% | 7.15 | 7.15 | 4.89 | +2.26 | 2/18 | |
| 19 |
Edward Cabrera
CHC
|
+1 | ⚠️ High | -0.4 | 17 96th | 75.0 | 0.227 | 25.0% | 5.56 | 5.56 | 4.03 | +1.53 | 16/122 | |
| 20 |
Valente Bellozo
COL
|
+1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 5 | 13.7 | 0.365 | 27.8% | 8.62 | 8.62 | 5.93 | +2.69 | · | |
| 21 |
Shane Bieber
TOR
|
-9 | 📊 Elevated | -3.9 | 7 | 23.7 | 0.295 | 25.9% | 6.91 | 6.91 | 4.84 | +2.07 | 4/23 | |
| 22 |
Tyler Ferguson
CHC
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 4 | 10.7 | 0.374 | 26.7% | 6.23 | 6.23 | 3.56 | +2.67 | · | |
| 23 |
Nathan Eovaldi
TEX
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | -0.2 | 22 99th | 119.0 | 0.185 | 21.6% | 4.39 | 4.39 | 3.32 | +1.07 | 18/163 | |
| 24 |
Mike Burrows
HOU
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | -0.5 | 21 98th | 99.3 | 0.211 | 17.9% | 5.53 | 5.53 | 4.62 | +0.91 | 24/144 | |
| 25 |
Roki Sasaki
LAD
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | -0.6 | 19 98th | 88.3 | 0.215 | 20.7% | 5.57 | 5.57 | 4.40 | +1.17 | 14/127 | |
| 26 |
Trey Gibson
BAL
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | -0.6 | 7 | 32.7 | 0.214 | 29.2% | 6.48 | 6.48 | 4.85 | +1.63 | 8/43 | |
| 27 |
Miles Mikolas
WSH
|
+1 | 📊 Elevated | -0.4 | 20 98th | 93.7 | 0.213 | 19.0% | 5.50 | 5.50 | 4.47 | +1.03 | 9/77 | |
| 28 |
Cole Ragans
KC
|
-1 | 📊 Elevated | -0.5 | 10 80th | 39.3 | 0.254 | 23.3% | 5.67 | 5.67 | 4.07 | +1.60 | 11/71 | |
| 29 |
Gavin Williams
CLE
|
+2 | 📊 Elevated | -0.1 | 21 98th | 122.3 | 0.172 | 21.9% | 3.94 | 3.94 | 2.94 | +1.00 | 18/187 | |
| 30 |
Zac Gallen
AZ
|
-1 | 📊 Elevated | -0.3 | 21 98th | 101.7 | 0.206 | 18.8% | 5.73 | 5.73 | 4.76 | +0.97 | 17/168 | |
| 31 | +1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 4 | 11.7 | 0.342 | 25.0% | 7.94 | 7.94 | 5.63 | +2.31 | · | ||
| 32 |
Zebby Matthews
MIN
|
-2 | 📊 Elevated | -1.0 | 15 93th | 69.3 | 0.216 | 19.2% | 5.29 | 5.29 | 4.23 | +1.06 | 17/82 | |
| 33 |
Justin Lawrence
PIT
|
+1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 9 75th | 36.3 | 0.248 | 28.1% | 6.92 | 6.92 | 5.08 | +1.84 | · | |
| 34 |
Tony Santillan
CIN
|
+1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 9 75th | 31.3 | 0.288 | 24.3% | 6.31 | 6.31 | 4.42 | +1.89 | · | |
| 35 | +2 | 📊 Elevated | +0.3 | 9 75th | 35.7 | 0.252 | 18.4% | 5.39 | 5.39 | 4.25 | +1.14 | 5/17 | ||
| 36 |
Tanner Bibee
CLE
|
-3 | 📊 Elevated | -0.5 | 22 99th | 116.0 | 0.190 | 16.7% | 4.99 | 4.99 | 4.30 | +0.69 | 23/183 | |
| 37 |
Shota Imanaga
CHC
|
-1 | 📊 Elevated | -0.7 | 22 99th | 118.7 | 0.185 | 15.8% | 4.50 | 4.50 | 3.92 | +0.58 | 27/189 | |
| 38 |
Eric Lauer
TOR
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | -0.5 | 18 97th | 75.3 | 0.239 | 15.0% | 6.16 | 6.16 | 5.54 | +0.62 | 15/104 | |
| 39 |
Tomoyuki Sugano
COL
|
+1 | 📊 Elevated | -0.4 | 19 98th | 93.3 | 0.204 | 16.5% | 5.52 | 5.52 | 4.79 | +0.73 | 18/148 | |
| 40 |
Tanner Gordon
COL
|
-1 | 📊 Elevated | -0.7 | 13 89th | 56.0 | 0.232 | 17.3% | 5.17 | 5.17 | 4.24 | +0.93 | 8/41 | |
| 41 | EVEN | 📊 Elevated | -0.4 | 12 86th | 48.0 | 0.250 | 18.8% | 6.38 | 6.38 | 5.21 | +1.17 | 9/75 | ||
| 42 | +1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 5 | 17.3 | 0.289 | 25.0% | 7.49 | 7.49 | 5.53 | +1.96 | · | ||
| 43 |
Mitchell Parker
WSH
|
+3 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 11 83th | 44.0 | 0.250 | 22.4% | 5.51 | 5.51 | 4.00 | +1.51 | · | |
| 44 |
Ryan Weathers
NYY
|
-2 | 📊 Elevated | -0.5 | 17 96th | 102.0 | 0.167 | 20.7% | 3.96 | 3.96 | 3.05 | +0.91 | 17/173 | |
| 45 | -1 | 📊 Elevated | -0.3 | 16 95th | 91.0 | 0.176 | 20.3% | 4.91 | 4.91 | 3.98 | +0.93 | 18/162 | ||
| 46 |
Brandon Sproat
MIL
|
-1 | 📊 Elevated | -0.4 | 15 93th | 83.3 | 0.180 | 20.5% | 5.08 | 5.08 | 4.11 | +0.97 | 20/166 | |
| 47 |
Ryan Feltner
COL
|
+2 | 📊 Elevated | -0.1 | 14 91th | 69.0 | 0.203 | 18.4% | 5.56 | 5.56 | 4.64 | +0.92 | 19/123 | |
| 48 |
Justin Sterner
ATH
|
NEW | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 11 83th | 43.0 | 0.256 | 21.2% | 5.48 | 5.48 | 4.04 | +1.44 | · | |
| 49 |
Tim Hill
NYY
|
NEW | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 8 | 39.3 | 0.204 | 28.6% | 5.90 | 5.90 | 4.36 | +1.54 | · | |
| 50 |
Kyle Freeland
COL
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | -0.1 | 18 97th | 91.0 | 0.198 | 16.5% | 4.73 | 4.73 | 4.03 | +0.70 | 16/152 |
How this works:
The susceptibility score is a composite ranking using
real season stats from FanGraphs: HR/FB% (30%), official HR/IP (25%), total HRs allowed (20%),
and FIP-xFIP gap (15%), plus a 10% boost for pitchers who give up HRs to batters in our scored pool.
FanGraphs season columns come from the loaded season cache or a validated snapshot; the THR scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date.
Historical reconstructed views are directional only unless a validated pre-game snapshot is available.
Pitchers qualify with at least 2 starts or 10 IP (543 qualify in this view).
The top 10 are flagged with a 🎯 icon
directly on the main slate table — so you never miss a soft matchup.
Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.
Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)
Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.
Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)