Susceptible Pitchers
The most HR-prone arms in baseball right now - a top-50 composite ranking using official season HR/IP, FanGraphs season stats, THR scored-pool results, and weekly report movement.
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-07-11T11:00:29-04:00
HR Susceptibility Rankings · 2026-07-11
| # | Pitcher | 7d Rank |
Tier
Based on composite susceptibility score. 🔥 Extreme: 75+ ⚠️ High: 55–74 📊 Elevated: 35–54 📉 Moderate: <35 |
Score
Composite 0–100 score: HR/FB% — 30% HR/IP — 25% Total HRs — 20% FIP-xFIP gap — 15% Pool HR rate — 10% Normalized across 526 qualified pitchers. |
Score +/- Change in composite susceptibility score versus the same as-of report 7 days earlier. The THR scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date; validated snapshots preserve the full pre-game view. | HRs | IP |
HR/IP
Home runs allowed divided by innings pitched, derived from official season HR and IP columns. League avg: 0.134. Above .167 equals 1.5 HR/9. Above .222 equals 2.0 HR/9. |
HR/FB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | Gap | Pool |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Dean Kremer
BAL
🎯
|
+1 | 🔥 Extreme | +5.0 | 9 77th | 21.3 | 0.423 | 34.6% | 6.95 | 6.95 | 3.36 | +3.59 | 7/26 | |
| 2 |
Shane Bieber
TOR
🎯
|
-1 | 🔥 Extreme | +2.0 | 6 | 13.0 | 0.462 | 31.6% | 9.38 | 9.38 | 5.66 | +3.72 | 4/14 | |
| 3 |
Steven Cruz
KC
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | -2.0 | 9 77th | 29.3 | 0.307 | 36.0% | 6.12 | 6.12 | 3.46 | +2.66 | 4/15 | |
| 4 |
Luis Morales
ATH
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +2.9 | 5 | 12.0 | 0.417 | 31.2% | 11.32 | 11.32 | 7.98 | +3.34 | 4/17 | |
| 5 |
Jameson Taillon
CHC
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +1.8 | 22 100th | 71.0 | 0.310 | 23.2% | 6.49 | 6.49 | 4.55 | +1.94 | 16/115 | |
| 6 |
Kodai Senga
NYM
🎯
|
+1 | ⚠️ High | +1.4 | 12 88th | 37.7 | 0.318 | 30.0% | 7.16 | 7.16 | 4.67 | +2.49 | 9/79 | |
| 7 |
Jeffrey Springs
ATH
🎯
|
+2 | ⚠️ High | +2.3 | 26 100th | 98.7 | 0.263 | 20.2% | 5.98 | 5.98 | 4.59 | +1.39 | 29/151 | |
| 8 |
Ken Waldichuk
WSH
🎯
|
-2 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 10.3 | 0.388 | 33.3% | 8.39 | 8.39 | 5.16 | +3.23 | · | |
| 9 |
Luis Curvelo
TEX
🎯
|
-1 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 5 | 10.7 | 0.467 | 26.3% | 8.76 | 8.76 | 5.45 | +3.31 | · | |
| 10 |
Taijuan Walker
PHI
🎯
|
+1 | ⚠️ High | +2.8 | 8 | 22.7 | 0.352 | 24.2% | 7.82 | 7.82 | 5.51 | +2.31 | 4/18 | |
| 11 |
Hurston Waldrep
ATL
|
+1 | ⚠️ High | +3.3 | 3 | 10.7 | 0.280 | 37.5% | 8.48 | 8.48 | 6.00 | +2.48 | 1/9 | |
| 12 |
Brady Singer
CIN
|
+1 | ⚠️ High | +2.1 | 21 99th | 92.3 | 0.228 | 22.6% | 5.70 | 5.70 | 4.31 | +1.39 | 25/142 | |
| 13 |
Aaron Bummer
ATL
|
-3 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 6 | 16.7 | 0.359 | 30.0% | 8.24 | 8.24 | 5.44 | +2.80 | · | |
| 14 |
Max Scherzer
TOR
|
+2 | ⚠️ High | +2.9 | 9 77th | 26.7 | 0.337 | 22.5% | 7.83 | 7.83 | 5.79 | +2.04 | 10/44 | |
| 15 |
Ryan Weiss
HOU
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +1.4 | 8 | 26.0 | 0.308 | 27.6% | 7.15 | 7.15 | 4.89 | +2.26 | 2/18 | |
| 16 | +1 | ⚠️ High | +1.7 | 22 100th | 93.7 | 0.235 | 21.0% | 6.27 | 6.27 | 4.96 | +1.31 | 16/115 | ||
| 17 |
Edward Cabrera
CHC
|
+1 | ⚠️ High | +1.6 | 17 96th | 75.0 | 0.227 | 25.0% | 5.56 | 5.56 | 4.03 | +1.53 | 16/122 | |
| 18 |
Valente Bellozo
COL
|
-4 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 5 | 13.7 | 0.365 | 27.8% | 8.62 | 8.62 | 5.93 | +2.69 | · | |
| 19 |
Zack Littell
WSH
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +2.0 | 22 100th | 84.7 | 0.260 | 17.6% | 6.29 | 6.29 | 5.22 | +1.07 | 20/120 | |
| 20 |
Roki Sasaki
LAD
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +1.6 | 19 98th | 82.7 | 0.230 | 22.1% | 5.82 | 5.82 | 4.46 | +1.36 | 14/119 | |
| 21 |
Trey Gibson
BAL
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +2.3 | 7 | 32.7 | 0.214 | 29.2% | 6.48 | 6.48 | 4.85 | +1.63 | 8/43 | |
| 22 |
Mike Burrows
HOU
|
+3 | 📊 Elevated | +2.3 | 21 99th | 99.3 | 0.211 | 17.9% | 5.53 | 5.53 | 4.62 | +0.91 | 24/144 | |
| 23 |
Miles Mikolas
WSH
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +2.0 | 20 98th | 90.0 | 0.222 | 19.2% | 5.56 | 5.56 | 4.47 | +1.09 | 9/77 | |
| 24 |
Aaron Nola
PHI
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +1.8 | 20 98th | 94.3 | 0.212 | 19.2% | 4.88 | 4.88 | 3.84 | +1.04 | 20/150 | |
| 25 |
Cole Ragans
KC
|
+1 | 📊 Elevated | +1.9 | 10 82th | 39.3 | 0.254 | 23.3% | 5.67 | 5.67 | 4.07 | +1.60 | 11/71 | |
| 26 |
Tanner Bibee
CLE
|
+4 | 📊 Elevated | +2.0 | 22 100th | 109.7 | 0.201 | 17.6% | 5.05 | 5.05 | 4.22 | +0.83 | 23/166 | |
| 27 |
Zac Gallen
AZ
|
+1 | 📊 Elevated | +1.2 | 21 99th | 101.7 | 0.206 | 18.8% | 5.73 | 5.73 | 4.76 | +0.97 | 17/168 | |
| 28 | -6 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 4 | 11.7 | 0.342 | 25.0% | 7.94 | 7.94 | 5.63 | +2.31 | · | ||
| 29 |
Tony Santillan
CIN
|
-2 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 9 77th | 31.3 | 0.288 | 24.3% | 6.31 | 6.31 | 4.42 | +1.89 | · | |
| 30 |
Shota Imanaga
CHC
|
+2 | 📊 Elevated | +1.9 | 21 99th | 106.7 | 0.197 | 16.5% | 4.64 | 4.64 | 3.94 | +0.70 | 27/180 | |
| 31 |
Zebby Matthews
MIN
|
+8 | 📊 Elevated | +2.4 | 13 90th | 60.3 | 0.216 | 18.8% | 5.16 | 5.16 | 4.14 | +1.02 | 16/73 | |
| 32 |
Griffin Jax
TB
|
+5 | 📊 Elevated | +1.6 | 12 88th | 65.0 | 0.185 | 24.5% | 4.52 | 4.52 | 3.30 | +1.22 | 12/106 | |
| 33 |
Ryan Weathers
NYY
|
+2 | 📊 Elevated | +1.3 | 17 96th | 96.3 | 0.177 | 21.2% | 4.14 | 4.14 | 3.14 | +1.00 | 16/155 | |
| 34 |
Tanner Gordon
COL
|
+12 | 📊 Elevated | +3.0 | 11 85th | 45.3 | 0.243 | 18.3% | 5.07 | 5.07 | 3.98 | +1.09 | 8/41 | |
| 35 |
Nathan Eovaldi
TEX
|
+3 | 📊 Elevated | +1.2 | 19 98th | 115.0 | 0.165 | 19.8% | 4.07 | 4.07 | 3.23 | +0.84 | 16/156 | |
| 36 |
Eric Lauer
TOR
|
+5 | 📊 Elevated | +1.8 | 18 97th | 75.3 | 0.239 | 15.0% | 6.16 | 6.16 | 5.54 | +0.62 | 15/104 | |
| 37 | -6 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 5 | 17.3 | 0.289 | 25.0% | 7.49 | 7.49 | 5.53 | +1.96 | · | ||
| 38 |
Phil Maton
CHC
|
-5 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 6 | 28.3 | 0.212 | 30.0% | 5.87 | 5.87 | 4.22 | +1.65 | · | |
| 39 |
JP Sears
SD
|
-10 | 📊 Elevated | -2.3 | 4 | 15.3 | 0.261 | 21.1% | 6.09 | 6.09 | 4.63 | +1.46 | 5/23 | |
| 40 |
Justin Lawrence
PIT
|
-6 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 8 | 34.7 | 0.231 | 26.7% | 6.58 | 6.58 | 4.93 | +1.65 | · | |
| 41 |
Mitchell Parker
WSH
|
-5 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 11 85th | 44.0 | 0.250 | 22.4% | 5.51 | 5.51 | 4.00 | +1.51 | · | |
| 42 |
Gavin Williams
CLE
|
+1 | 📊 Elevated | +1.1 | 18 97th | 116.3 | 0.155 | 20.5% | 3.84 | 3.84 | 3.01 | +0.83 | 15/172 | |
| 43 |
David Sandlin
CWS
|
+5 | 📊 Elevated | +1.5 | 4 | 19.0 | 0.211 | 26.7% | 5.36 | 5.36 | 3.86 | +1.50 | 3/25 | |
| 44 |
Spencer Strider
ATL
|
NEW | 📊 Elevated | +2.2 | 9 77th | 37.7 | 0.239 | 19.1% | 5.48 | 5.48 | 4.33 | +1.15 | 12/70 | |
| 45 |
Bryan Abreu
HOU
|
-5 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 7 | 30.0 | 0.233 | 25.9% | 6.68 | 6.68 | 5.05 | +1.63 | · | |
| 46 |
Brandon Eisert
CWS
|
NEW | 📊 Elevated | +2.2 | 6 | 27.3 | 0.220 | 22.2% | 4.54 | 4.54 | 3.23 | +1.31 | 4/23 | |
| 47 |
Andrew Painter
PHI
|
NEW | 📊 Elevated | +2.1 | 14 92th | 64.3 | 0.218 | 16.5% | 5.59 | 5.59 | 4.82 | +0.77 | 19/114 | |
| 48 | NEW | 📊 Elevated | +1.6 | 15 94th | 89.0 | 0.169 | 20.3% | 4.69 | 4.69 | 3.80 | +0.89 | 18/155 | ||
| 49 |
Charlie Barnes
LAD
|
-7 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 3 | 12.0 | 0.250 | 27.3% | 7.48 | 7.48 | 5.66 | +1.82 | · | |
| 50 |
Luis Gil
NYY
|
NEW | 📊 Elevated | +1.4 | 6 | 24.0 | 0.250 | 21.4% | 6.94 | 6.94 | 5.51 | +1.43 | 3/27 |
How this works:
The susceptibility score is a composite ranking using
real season stats from FanGraphs: HR/FB% (30%), official HR/IP (25%), total HRs allowed (20%),
and FIP-xFIP gap (15%), plus a 10% boost for pitchers who give up HRs to batters in our scored pool.
FanGraphs season columns come from the loaded season cache or a validated snapshot; the THR scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date.
Historical reconstructed views are directional only unless a validated pre-game snapshot is available.
Pitchers qualify with at least 2 starts or 10 IP (526 qualify in this view).
The top 10 are flagged with a 🎯 icon
directly on the main slate table — so you never miss a soft matchup.
Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.
Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)
Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.
Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)