Susceptible Pitchers

The most HR-prone arms in baseball right now - a top-50 composite ranking using official season HR/IP, FanGraphs season stats, THR scored-pool results, and weekly report movement.

Date Top 50 pitchers · 7-day movement vs prior report

Historical Snapshot

Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.

refresh_17 - 2026-07-10T17:00:56-04:00

HR Susceptibility Rankings · 2026-07-10

50 pitchers · Top 10 flagged on slate · 524 qualified · trend compares to 7 days earlier

#	Pitcher	7d Rank	Tier ? Based on composite susceptibility score. 🔥 Extreme: 75+ ⚠️ High: 55–74 📊 Elevated: 35–54 📉 Moderate: <35	Score ? Composite 0–100 score: HR/FB% — 30% HR/IP — 25% Total HRs — 20% FIP-xFIP gap — 15% Pool HR rate — 10% Normalized across 524 qualified pitchers.	Score +/- ? Change in composite susceptibility score versus the same as-of report 7 days earlier. The THR scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date; validated snapshots preserve the full pre-game view.	HRs	IP	HR/IP ? Home runs allowed divided by innings pitched, derived from official season HR and IP columns. League avg: 0.133. Above .167 equals 1.5 HR/9. Above .222 equals 2.0 HR/9.	HR/FB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	Gap	Pool
1	Shane Bieber TOR 🎯	+2	🔥 Extreme	80	+10.0	6	13.0	0.462	31.6%	9.38	9.38	5.66	+3.72	3/8
2	Dean Kremer BAL 🎯	-1	🔥 Extreme	79	+4.1	9 78th	21.3	0.423	34.6%	6.95	6.95	3.36	+3.59	7/26
3	Steven Cruz KC 🎯	-1	⚠️ High	71	-2.9	9 78th	29.3	0.307	36.0%	6.12	6.12	3.46	+2.66	4/15
4	Luis Morales ATH 🎯	EVEN	⚠️ High	71	+2.2	5	12.0	0.417	31.2%	11.32	11.32	7.98	+3.34	4/17
5	Jameson Taillon CHC 🎯	EVEN	⚠️ High	66	+1.3	22 100th	71.0	0.310	23.2%	6.49	6.49	4.55	+1.94	16/115
6	Kodai Senga NYM 🎯	+1	⚠️ High	65	+1.0	12 89th	37.7	0.318	30.0%	7.16	7.16	4.67	+2.49	9/79
7	Jeffrey Springs ATH 🎯	+2	⚠️ High	64	+1.7	26 100th	98.7	0.263	20.2%	5.98	5.98	4.59	+1.39	29/151
8	Ken Waldichuk WSH 🎯	-2	⚠️ High	64	+0.0	4	10.3	0.388	33.3%	8.39	8.39	5.16	+3.23	·
9	Luis Curvelo TEX 🎯	-1	⚠️ High	64	+0.0	5	10.7	0.467	26.3%	8.76	8.76	5.45	+3.31	·
10	Brady Singer CIN 🎯	EVEN	⚠️ High	62	+1.4	21 99th	85.0	0.247	23.6%	5.93	5.93	4.35	+1.58	25/142
11	Hurston Waldrep ATL	+2	⚠️ High	62	+3.0	3	10.7	0.280	37.5%	8.48	8.48	6.00	+2.48	1/9
12	Taijuan Walker PHI	EVEN	⚠️ High	62	+2.0	8	22.7	0.352	24.2%	7.82	7.82	5.51	+2.31	4/18
13	Aaron Bummer ATL	-2	⚠️ High	60	+0.0	6	16.7	0.359	30.0%	8.24	8.24	5.44	+2.80	·
14	Max Scherzer TOR	+2	⚠️ High	60	+2.1	9 78th	26.7	0.337	22.5%	7.83	7.83	5.79	+2.04	10/44
15	Ryan Weiss HOU	EVEN	⚠️ High	59	+1.1	8	26.0	0.308	27.6%	7.15	7.15	4.89	+2.26	2/18
16	Merrill Kelly AZ	+2	⚠️ High	58	+1.4	21 99th	87.0	0.241	20.8%	6.39	6.39	5.06	+1.33	16/115
17	Edward Cabrera CHC	EVEN	⚠️ High	58	+1.2	17 96th	75.0	0.227	25.0%	5.56	5.56	4.03	+1.53	16/122
18	Valente Bellozo COL	-4	⚠️ High	58	+0.0	5	13.7	0.365	27.8%	8.62	8.62	5.93	+2.69	·
19	Zack Littell WSH	EVEN	⚠️ High	57	+1.5	22 100th	84.7	0.260	17.6%	6.29	6.29	5.22	+1.07	20/120
20	Roki Sasaki LAD	EVEN	⚠️ High	56	+1.2	19 98th	82.7	0.230	22.1%	5.82	5.82	4.46	+1.36	14/119
21	Trey Gibson BAL	EVEN	📊 Elevated	55	+1.7	7	32.7	0.214	29.2%	6.48	6.48	4.85	+1.63	8/43
22	Mike Burrows HOU	+3	📊 Elevated	54	+1.7	21 99th	99.3	0.211	17.9%	5.53	5.53	4.62	+0.91	24/144
23	Miles Mikolas WSH	EVEN	📊 Elevated	54	+1.6	20 98th	90.0	0.222	19.2%	5.56	5.56	4.47	+1.09	9/77
24	Cole Ragans KC	+2	📊 Elevated	53	+1.4	10 83th	39.3	0.254	23.3%	5.67	5.67	4.07	+1.60	11/71
25	Aaron Nola PHI	-1	📊 Elevated	53	+1.0	20 98th	94.3	0.212	19.2%	4.88	4.88	3.84	+1.04	17/142
26	Tanner Bibee CLE	+4	📊 Elevated	53	+1.5	22 100th	109.7	0.201	17.6%	5.05	5.05	4.22	+0.83	23/166
27	Zac Gallen AZ	+1	📊 Elevated	53	+0.9	21 99th	101.7	0.206	18.8%	5.73	5.73	4.76	+0.97	17/168
28	Trevor Martin TB	-6	📊 Elevated	53	+0.0	4	11.7	0.342	25.0%	7.94	7.94	5.63	+2.31	·
29	Tony Santillan CIN	-2	📊 Elevated	52	+0.0	9 78th	31.3	0.288	24.3%	6.31	6.31	4.42	+1.89	·
30	Nathan Eovaldi TEX	+1	📊 Elevated	51	+0.9	19 98th	109.0	0.174	20.7%	4.25	4.25	3.30	+0.95	16/156
31	Shota Imanaga CHC	+2	📊 Elevated	51	+1.3	21 99th	106.7	0.197	16.5%	4.64	4.64	3.94	+0.70	25/171
32	Zebby Matthews MIN	+7	📊 Elevated	51	+2.2	13 91th	60.3	0.216	18.8%	5.16	5.16	4.14	+1.02	15/64
33	Griffin Jax TB	+5	📊 Elevated	50	+1.2	12 89th	65.0	0.185	24.5%	4.52	4.52	3.30	+1.22	12/106
34	Ryan Weathers NYY	+2	📊 Elevated	50	+0.8	17 96th	96.3	0.177	21.2%	4.14	4.14	3.14	+1.00	14/147
35	Tanner Gordon COL	+10	📊 Elevated	50	+2.8	11 86th	45.3	0.243	18.3%	5.07	5.07	3.98	+1.09	7/33
36	Jonathan Hernández LAD	-4	📊 Elevated	50	+0.0	5	17.3	0.289	25.0%	7.49	7.49	5.53	+1.96	·
37	JP Sears SD	-8	📊 Elevated	50	-2.1	4	15.3	0.261	21.1%	6.09	6.09	4.63	+1.46	4/16
38	Phil Maton CHC	-4	📊 Elevated	49	+0.0	6	28.3	0.212	30.0%	5.87	5.87	4.22	+1.65	·
39	Justin Lawrence PIT	-4	📊 Elevated	49	+0.0	8	34.7	0.231	26.7%	6.58	6.58	4.93	+1.65	·
40	Eric Lauer TOR	+1	📊 Elevated	49	+1.3	18 97th	75.3	0.239	15.0%	6.16	6.16	5.54	+0.62	15/104
41	Mitchell Parker WSH	-4	📊 Elevated	49	+0.0	11 86th	44.0	0.250	22.4%	5.51	5.51	4.00	+1.51	·
42	Bryan Abreu HOU	-2	📊 Elevated	48	+0.0	7	30.0	0.233	25.9%	6.68	6.68	5.05	+1.63	·
43	David Sandlin CWS	+4	📊 Elevated	48	+1.1	4	19.0	0.211	26.7%	5.36	5.36	3.86	+1.50	3/25
44	Spencer Strider ATL	NEW	📊 Elevated	48	+1.6	9 78th	37.7	0.239	19.1%	5.48	5.48	4.33	+1.15	12/70
45	Charlie Barnes LAD	-3	📊 Elevated	48	+0.0	3	12.0	0.250	27.3%	7.48	7.48	5.66	+1.82	·
46	Gavin Williams CLE	+2	📊 Elevated	47	+0.8	17 96th	109.3	0.156	20.5%	3.91	3.91	3.07	+0.84	15/172
47	Walker Buehler SD	NEW	📊 Elevated	47	+1.2	15 94th	89.0	0.169	20.3%	4.69	4.69	3.80	+0.89	18/155
48	Brandon Eisert CWS	NEW	📊 Elevated	47	+1.6	6	27.3	0.220	22.2%	4.54	4.54	3.23	+1.31	4/23
49	Andrew Painter PHI	NEW	📊 Elevated	47	+1.5	14 93th	64.3	0.218	16.5%	5.59	5.59	4.82	+0.77	19/114
50	Justin Topa MIN	-7	📊 Elevated	47	+0.0	5	21.0	0.238	26.3%	6.67	6.67	4.99	+1.68	·

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44 more waiting in the on-deck circle

How this works: The susceptibility score is a composite ranking using real season stats from FanGraphs: HR/FB% (30%), official HR/IP (25%), total HRs allowed (20%), and FIP-xFIP gap (15%), plus a 10% boost for pitchers who give up HRs to batters in our scored pool. FanGraphs season columns come from the loaded season cache or a validated snapshot; the THR scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date. Historical reconstructed views are directional only unless a validated pre-game snapshot is available. Pitchers qualify with at least 2 starts or 10 IP (524 qualify in this view). The top 10 are flagged with a 🎯 icon directly on the main slate table — so you never miss a soft matchup.

Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.

Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)

The full target list is behind the plate

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