2026
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15-Day HR Leaders
1 Esmerlyn Valdez 5 HRs · 2 James Wood 5 HRs · 3 Cole Young 4 HRs · 4 Eugenio Suárez 4 HRs · 5 Chase DeLauter 4 HRs · 6 Lane Thomas 4 HRs · 7 Jose Altuve 4 HRs · 8 Jordan Walker 4 HRs · 9 Jake Bauers 4 HRs · 10 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 11 Nolan Arenado 4 HRs · 12 Shohei Ohtani 4 HRs 1 Esmerlyn Valdez 5 HRs · 2 James Wood 5 HRs · 3 Cole Young 4 HRs · 4 Eugenio Suárez 4 HRs · 5 Chase DeLauter 4 HRs · 6 Lane Thomas 4 HRs · 7 Jose Altuve 4 HRs · 8 Jordan Walker 4 HRs · 9 Jake Bauers 4 HRs · 10 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 11 Nolan Arenado 4 HRs · 12 Shohei Ohtani 4 HRs
Susceptible Pitchers
The most HR-prone arms in baseball right now - a top-50 composite ranking using official season HR/IP, FanGraphs season stats, THR scored-pool results, and weekly report movement.
Top 50 pitchers · 7-day movement vs prior report
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-07-19T11:00:33-04:00
HR Susceptibility Rankings · 2026-07-19
50 pitchers · Top 10 flagged on slate · 538 qualified · trend compares to 7 days earlier
# Pitcher 7d Rank Tier ? Based on composite susceptibility score.

🔥 Extreme: 75+
⚠️ High: 55–74
📊 Elevated: 35–54
📉 Moderate: <35 		Score ? Composite 0–100 score:

HR/FB% — 30%
HR/IP — 25%
Total HRs — 20%
FIP-xFIP gap — 15%
Pool HR rate — 10%

Normalized across 538 qualified pitchers. 		Score +/- ? Change in composite susceptibility score versus the same as-of report 7 days earlier. The THR scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date; validated snapshots preserve the full pre-game view. HRs IP HR/IP ? Home runs allowed divided by innings pitched, derived from official season HR and IP columns. League avg: 0.134.

Above .167 equals 1.5 HR/9.
Above .222 equals 2.0 HR/9. 		HR/FB% ERA FIP xFIP Gap Pool
1
Luis Morales ATH 🎯
+1 ⚠️ High 68 -0.8 5 12.0 0.417 31.2% 11.32 11.32 7.98 +3.34 4/17
2
Chris Roycroft STL 🎯
+2 ⚠️ High 68 +0.0 5 14.3 0.350 45.5% 8.12 8.12 4.77 +3.35 ·
3
Dean Kremer BAL 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 66 -2.4 9 76th 25.0 0.360 31.0% 6.35 6.35 3.48 +2.87 7/33
4
Shane Bieber TOR 🎯
-3 ⚠️ High 66 -3.9 7 17.7 0.395 30.4% 8.52 8.52 5.40 +3.12 4/23
5
Steven Cruz KC 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 64 -0.9 9 76th 32.3 0.279 34.6% 5.81 5.81 3.45 +2.36 4/15
6
Jameson Taillon CHC 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 64 -0.4 22 99th 71.0 0.310 23.2% 6.49 6.49 4.55 +1.94 16/115
7
Jeffrey Springs ATH 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 62 -0.7 26 100th 98.7 0.263 20.2% 5.98 5.98 4.59 +1.39 29/151
8
Luis Curvelo TEX 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 61 +0.0 5 10.7 0.467 26.3% 8.76 8.76 5.45 +3.31 ·
9
Ken Waldichuk WSH 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 60 +0.0 4 10.3 0.388 33.3% 8.39 8.39 5.16 +3.23 ·
10
Kodai Senga NYM 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 60 -0.4 12 87th 38.7 0.310 28.6% 7.00 7.00 4.66 +2.34 9/79
11
Taijuan Walker PHI
EVEN ⚠️ High 59 -0.8 8 22.7 0.352 24.2% 7.82 7.82 5.51 +2.31 4/18
12
Hurston Waldrep ATL
+2 ⚠️ High 57 -0.4 3 10.7 0.280 37.5% 8.48 8.48 6.00 +2.48 1/9
13
Zack Littell WSH
+4 ⚠️ High 57 -0.1 23 100th 88.3 0.260 18.1% 6.20 6.20 5.05 +1.15 23/126
14
Brady Singer CIN
-2 ⚠️ High 57 -0.7 22 99th 99.7 0.221 22.2% 5.52 5.52 4.20 +1.32 26/151
15
Max Scherzer TOR
-2 ⚠️ High 57 -0.8 9 76th 26.7 0.337 22.5% 7.83 7.83 5.79 +2.04 10/44
16
Aaron Nola PHI
EVEN ⚠️ High 57 -0.3 24 100th 105.3 0.228 20.7% 5.10 5.10 3.85 +1.25 22/158
17
Merrill Kelly AZ
-2 ⚠️ High 57 -0.5 23 100th 98.3 0.234 21.1% 6.25 6.25 4.94 +1.31 17/122
18
Aaron Bummer ATL
EVEN ⚠️ High 57 +0.0 6 16.7 0.359 30.0% 8.24 8.24 5.44 +2.80 ·
19
Ryan Weiss HOU
EVEN ⚠️ High 56 -0.3 8 26.0 0.308 27.6% 7.15 7.15 4.89 +2.26 2/18
20
Edward Cabrera CHC
EVEN ⚠️ High 55 -0.4 17 96th 75.0 0.227 25.0% 5.56 5.56 4.03 +1.53 16/122
21
Valente Bellozo COL
EVEN 📊 Elevated 55 +0.0 5 13.7 0.365 27.8% 8.62 8.62 5.93 +2.69 ·
22
Tyler Ferguson CHC
EVEN 📊 Elevated 54 +0.0 4 10.7 0.374 26.7% 6.23 6.23 3.56 +2.67 ·
23
Mike Burrows HOU
EVEN 📊 Elevated 52 -0.5 21 98th 99.3 0.211 17.9% 5.53 5.53 4.62 +0.91 24/144
24
Roki Sasaki LAD
EVEN 📊 Elevated 52 -0.6 19 98th 88.3 0.215 20.7% 5.57 5.57 4.40 +1.17 14/127
25
Trey Gibson BAL
EVEN 📊 Elevated 51 -0.7 7 32.7 0.214 29.2% 6.48 6.48 4.85 +1.63 8/43
26
Miles Mikolas WSH
+1 📊 Elevated 51 -0.4 20 98th 93.7 0.213 19.0% 5.50 5.50 4.47 +1.03 9/77
27
Cole Ragans KC
-1 📊 Elevated 51 -0.5 10 80th 39.3 0.254 23.3% 5.67 5.67 4.07 +1.60 11/71
28
Zac Gallen AZ
EVEN 📊 Elevated 50 -0.3 21 98th 101.7 0.206 18.8% 5.73 5.73 4.76 +0.97 17/168
29
Shota Imanaga CHC
EVEN 📊 Elevated 50 -0.5 22 99th 111.7 0.197 16.7% 4.63 4.63 3.91 +0.72 27/180
30
Trevor Martin TB
EVEN 📊 Elevated 50 +0.0 4 11.7 0.342 25.0% 7.94 7.94 5.63 +2.31 ·
31
Justin Lawrence PIT
+2 📊 Elevated 49 +0.0 9 76th 36.3 0.248 28.1% 6.92 6.92 5.08 +1.84 ·
32
Tony Santillan CIN
+2 📊 Elevated 49 +0.0 9 76th 31.3 0.288 24.3% 6.31 6.31 4.42 +1.89 ·
33
Mason Englert TB
+2 📊 Elevated 49 +0.4 9 76th 35.7 0.252 18.4% 5.39 5.39 4.25 +1.14 5/17
34
Tanner Bibee CLE
-2 📊 Elevated 49 -0.4 22 99th 116.0 0.190 16.7% 4.99 4.99 4.30 +0.69 23/175
35
Zebby Matthews MIN
-4 📊 Elevated 49 -0.7 14 91th 66.0 0.212 19.2% 5.18 5.18 4.15 +1.03 16/73
36
Tanner Gordon COL
EVEN 📊 Elevated 48 -0.6 12 87th 50.3 0.239 18.2% 5.16 5.16 4.10 +1.06 8/41
37
Eric Lauer TOR
EVEN 📊 Elevated 48 -0.4 18 97th 75.3 0.239 15.0% 6.16 6.16 5.54 +0.62 15/104
38
Nathan Eovaldi TEX
EVEN 📊 Elevated 47 -0.3 19 98th 115.0 0.165 19.8% 4.07 4.07 3.23 +0.84 16/156
39
Tim Hill NYY
EVEN 📊 Elevated 47 +0.0 8 38.0 0.211 29.6% 5.89 5.89 4.26 +1.63 ·
40
Jonathan Hernández LAD
+1 📊 Elevated 47 +0.0 5 17.3 0.289 25.0% 7.49 7.49 5.53 +1.96 ·
41
Ryan Weathers NYY
-1 📊 Elevated 46 -0.5 17 96th 102.0 0.167 20.7% 3.96 3.96 3.05 +0.91 16/164
42
Mitchell Parker WSH
+2 📊 Elevated 46 +0.0 11 84th 44.0 0.250 22.4% 5.51 5.51 4.00 +1.51 ·
43
Walker Buehler SD
-1 📊 Elevated 46 -0.4 16 95th 91.0 0.176 20.3% 4.91 4.91 3.98 +0.93 18/162
44
Brandon Sproat MIL
-1 📊 Elevated 46 -0.4 15 93th 83.3 0.180 20.5% 5.08 5.08 4.11 +0.97 20/166
45
Gavin Williams CLE
+1 📊 Elevated 46 -0.1 18 97th 116.3 0.155 20.5% 3.84 3.84 3.01 +0.83 18/187
46
Germán Márquez SD
-1 📊 Elevated 46 -0.4 11 84th 44.3 0.248 18.6% 6.31 6.31 5.16 +1.15 8/67
47
Phil Maton CHC
+3 📊 Elevated 46 +0.0 6 28.3 0.212 30.0% 5.87 5.87 4.22 +1.65 ·
48
Justin Sterner ATH
NEW 📊 Elevated 46 +0.0 11 84th 43.0 0.256 21.2% 5.48 5.48 4.04 +1.44 ·
49
Spencer Strider ATL
-2 📊 Elevated 46 -0.5 9 76th 37.7 0.239 19.1% 5.48 5.48 4.33 +1.15 12/70
50
Andrew Painter PHI
-1 📊 Elevated 45 -0.5 14 91th 64.3 0.218 16.5% 5.59 5.59 4.82 +0.77 19/114
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How this works: The susceptibility score is a composite ranking using real season stats from FanGraphs: HR/FB% (30%), official HR/IP (25%), total HRs allowed (20%), and FIP-xFIP gap (15%), plus a 10% boost for pitchers who give up HRs to batters in our scored pool. FanGraphs season columns come from the loaded season cache or a validated snapshot; the THR scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date. Historical reconstructed views are directional only unless a validated pre-game snapshot is available. Pitchers qualify with at least 2 starts or 10 IP (538 qualify in this view). The top 10 are flagged with a 🎯 icon directly on the main slate table — so you never miss a soft matchup.

Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.

Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)
THR 3.3.112 · build 618
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