2026
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15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs 1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 6 HRs · 2 Byron Buxton 5 HRs · 3 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 4 Shohei Ohtani 5 HRs · 5 Wyatt Langford 5 HRs · 6 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 7 Bo Bichette 5 HRs · 8 Dansby Swanson 4 HRs · 9 Ben Rice 4 HRs · 10 Kazuma Okamoto 4 HRs · 11 Zach Neto 4 HRs · 12 Jac Caglianone 4 HRs
Susceptible Pitchers
The most HR-prone arms in baseball right now - a top-50 composite ranking using official season HR/IP, FanGraphs season stats, LongDong scored-pool results, and weekly report movement.
Top 50 pitchers · 7-day movement vs prior report
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-06-25T11:00:43-04:00
HR Susceptibility Rankings · 2026-06-25
50 pitchers · Top 10 flagged on slate · 499 qualified · trend compares to 7 days earlier
# Pitcher 7d Rank Tier ? Based on composite susceptibility score.

🔥 Extreme: 75+
⚠️ High: 55–74
📊 Elevated: 35–54
📉 Moderate: <35 		Score ? Composite 0–100 score:

HR/FB% — 30%
HR/IP — 25%
Total HRs — 20%
FIP-xFIP gap — 15%
Pool HR rate — 10%

Normalized across 499 qualified pitchers. 		Score +/- ? Change in composite susceptibility score versus the same as-of report 7 days earlier. The LongDong scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date; validated snapshots preserve the full pre-game view. HRs IP HR/IP ? Home runs allowed divided by innings pitched, derived from official season HR and IP columns. League avg: 0.13.

Above .167 equals 1.5 HR/9.
Above .222 equals 2.0 HR/9. 		HR/FB% ERA FIP xFIP Gap Pool
1
Luis Morales ATH 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 74 +0.0 5 12.0 0.417 31.2% 11.32 11.32 7.98 +3.34 4/17
2
Steven Cruz KC 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 70 +0.0 8 78th 23.0 0.348 38.1% 6.76 6.76 3.66 +3.10 ·
3
Dean Kremer BAL 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 70 +0.0 4 11.0 0.364 33.3% 5.51 5.51 2.49 +3.02 2/9
4
Jameson Taillon CHC 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 70 +0.0 22 100th 71.0 0.310 23.2% 6.49 6.49 4.55 +1.94 16/115
5
Ken Waldichuk WSH 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 65 +0.0 4 10.3 0.388 33.3% 8.39 8.39 5.16 +3.23 ·
6
Luis Curvelo TEX 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 65 +0.0 5 10.7 0.467 26.3% 8.76 8.76 5.45 +3.31 ·
7
David Sandlin CWS 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 64 +0.0 4 13.0 0.308 33.3% 6.61 6.61 4.05 +2.56 3/18
8
Taijuan Walker PHI 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 64 +0.0 8 78th 22.7 0.352 24.2% 7.82 7.82 5.51 +2.31 4/18
9
Kodai Senga NYM 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 64 +0.0 9 83th 27.3 0.330 28.1% 7.58 7.58 5.13 +2.45 9/79
10
Jeffrey Springs ATH 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 63 +0.4 21 100th 84.0 0.250 19.6% 5.63 5.63 4.36 +1.27 27/128
11
Zack Littell WSH
EVEN ⚠️ High 63 +0.0 21 100th 74.0 0.284 18.4% 6.61 6.61 5.32 +1.29 18/111
12
Brady Singer CIN
EVEN ⚠️ High 62 -0.5 18 99th 75.7 0.238 22.8% 5.83 5.83 4.37 +1.46 21/117
13
Max Scherzer TOR
EVEN ⚠️ High 62 +0.0 9 83th 26.7 0.337 22.5% 7.83 7.83 5.79 +2.04 10/44
14
Aaron Bummer ATL
EVEN ⚠️ High 62 +0.0 6 16.7 0.359 30.0% 8.24 8.24 5.44 +2.80 ·
15
Edward Cabrera CHC
EVEN ⚠️ High 61 +0.2 17 98th 75.0 0.227 25.0% 5.56 5.56 4.03 +1.53 16/122
16
Ryan Weiss HOU
EVEN ⚠️ High 61 +0.0 8 78th 26.0 0.308 27.6% 7.15 7.15 4.89 +2.26 2/18
17
Trevor Martin TB
EVEN ⚠️ High 60 +0.0 4 10.7 0.374 28.6% 8.57 8.57 5.75 +2.82 ·
18
Jonathan Hernández LAD
EVEN ⚠️ High 60 +0.0 5 15.3 0.327 31.2% 7.73 7.73 5.11 +2.62 ·
19
Valente Bellozo COL
EVEN ⚠️ High 59 +0.0 5 13.7 0.365 27.8% 8.62 8.62 5.93 +2.69 ·
20
Ryan Weathers NYY
EVEN ⚠️ High 56 -0.3 17 98th 84.7 0.201 22.7% 4.41 4.41 3.19 +1.22 14/130
21
Mike Burrows HOU
EVEN ⚠️ High 56 -0.1 18 99th 84.3 0.214 18.8% 5.49 5.49 4.49 +1.00 21/127
22
Cole Ragans KC
EVEN ⚠️ High 56 +0.0 10 87th 39.3 0.254 23.3% 5.67 5.67 4.07 +1.60 11/71
23
Andrew Kittredge BAL
EVEN ⚠️ High 56 +0.0 4 17.7 0.226 36.4% 5.30 5.30 3.33 +1.97 ·
24
Justin Lawrence PIT
EVEN ⚠️ High 55 +0.0 8 78th 30.0 0.267 28.6% 6.98 6.98 4.97 +2.01 ·
25
Merrill Kelly AZ
EVEN 📊 Elevated 54 -0.3 17 98th 76.0 0.224 18.7% 6.26 6.26 5.22 +1.04 10/93
26
Eric Lauer TOR
EVEN 📊 Elevated 54 -0.2 16 97th 63.3 0.253 16.3% 6.29 6.29 5.42 +0.87 14/88
27
Tony Santillan CIN
EVEN 📊 Elevated 54 +0.0 9 83th 31.3 0.288 24.3% 6.31 6.31 4.42 +1.89 ·
28
Aaron Nola PHI
EVEN 📊 Elevated 53 +0.0 16 97th 78.0 0.205 19.3% 4.82 4.82 3.81 +1.01 17/128
29
Nathan Eovaldi TEX
EVEN 📊 Elevated 53 -0.2 17 98th 97.0 0.175 21.0% 4.43 4.43 3.45 +0.98 13/130
30
Miles Mikolas WSH
EVEN 📊 Elevated 52 +0.0 16 97th 73.7 0.217 19.3% 5.50 5.50 4.43 +1.07 4/61
31
Germán Márquez SD
+1 📊 Elevated 51 +0.0 9 83th 32.3 0.279 19.6% 6.49 6.49 5.09 +1.40 6/54
32
Tanner Bibee CLE
-1 📊 Elevated 51 -0.1 18 99th 92.7 0.194 16.8% 4.87 4.87 4.14 +0.73 18/148
33
Matthew Liberatore STL
EVEN 📊 Elevated 51 +0.0 15 96th 75.0 0.200 18.8% 4.95 4.95 4.01 +0.94 15/121
34
Bryan Abreu HOU
EVEN 📊 Elevated 51 +0.0 6 25.7 0.233 28.6% 7.04 7.04 5.28 +1.76 ·
35
Emmet Sheehan LAD
+10 📊 Elevated 50 +0.7 14 95th 71.0 0.197 17.1% 4.53 4.53 3.77 +0.76 20/105
36
Brandon Sproat MIL
-1 📊 Elevated 50 -0.2 13 93th 71.7 0.181 20.6% 5.00 5.00 4.02 +0.98 18/132
37
Hunter Dobbins STL
-1 📊 Elevated 50 +0.0 3 17.3 0.173 27.3% 4.42 4.42 3.16 +1.26 4/16
38
Andrew Painter PHI
-1 📊 Elevated 50 +0.0 14 95th 64.3 0.218 16.5% 5.59 5.59 4.82 +0.77 19/114
39
Grant Holmes ATL
EVEN 📊 Elevated 50 +0.0 14 95th 78.0 0.179 19.2% 5.33 5.33 4.46 +0.87 19/127
40
Spencer Strider ATL
EVEN 📊 Elevated 50 +0.0 9 83th 37.7 0.239 19.1% 5.48 5.48 4.33 +1.15 12/70
41
Gavin Williams CLE
-3 📊 Elevated 50 -0.1 16 97th 100.0 0.160 20.5% 3.94 3.94 3.08 +0.86 13/147
42
Jacob deGrom TEX
+2 📊 Elevated 50 +0.3 15 96th 81.3 0.185 17.9% 3.80 3.80 3.02 +0.78 18/123
43
Shota Imanaga CHC
-1 📊 Elevated 50 +0.1 17 98th 91.0 0.187 15.7% 4.55 4.55 3.97 +0.58 24/154
44
Foster Griffin WSH
-3 📊 Elevated 50 -0.1 16 97th 96.0 0.167 18.0% 4.36 4.36 3.64 +0.72 16/108
45
Zac Gallen AZ
-2 📊 Elevated 49 +0.0 16 97th 83.3 0.192 17.6% 5.48 5.48 4.69 +0.79 14/138
46
Ryne Nelson AZ
EVEN 📊 Elevated 49 +0.0 18 99th 88.3 0.204 14.8% 5.19 5.19 4.69 +0.50 14/120
47
Griffin Canning SD
EVEN 📊 Elevated 49 +0.0 8 78th 41.0 0.195 24.2% 5.56 5.56 4.28 +1.28 8/70
48
Ryan Helsley BAL
EVEN 📊 Elevated 49 +0.0 3 13.3 0.226 30.0% 5.56 5.56 3.80 +1.76 ·
49
Michael Lorenzen COL
EVEN 📊 Elevated 49 +0.3 15 96th 81.7 0.184 18.5% 5.08 5.08 4.24 +0.84 13/133
50
Luis Gil NYY
EVEN 📊 Elevated 48 +0.0 6 24.0 0.250 21.4% 6.94 6.94 5.51 +1.43 3/27
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How this works: The susceptibility score is a composite ranking using real season stats from FanGraphs: HR/FB% (30%), official HR/IP (25%), total HRs allowed (20%), and FIP-xFIP gap (15%), plus a 10% boost for pitchers who give up HRs to batters in our scored pool. FanGraphs season columns come from the loaded season cache or a validated snapshot; the LongDong scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date. Historical reconstructed views are directional only unless a validated pre-game snapshot is available. Pitchers qualify with at least 2 starts or 10 IP (499 qualify in this view). The top 10 are flagged with a 🎯 icon directly on the main slate table — so you never miss a soft matchup.

Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.

Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)
LD 3.3.16 · build 516
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