2026
Pricing
Sign In
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
Susceptible Pitchers
The most HR-prone arms in baseball right now - a top-50 composite ranking using official season HR/IP, FanGraphs season stats, LongDong scored-pool results, and weekly report movement.
Top 50 pitchers · 7-day movement vs prior report
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_17 - 2026-06-16T17:00:37-04:00
HR Susceptibility Rankings · 2026-06-16
50 pitchers · Top 10 flagged on slate · 484 qualified · trend compares to 7 days earlier
# Pitcher 7d Rank Tier ? Based on composite susceptibility score.

🔥 Extreme: 75+
⚠️ High: 55–74
📊 Elevated: 35–54
📉 Moderate: <35 		Score ? Composite 0–100 score:

HR/FB% — 30%
HR/IP — 25%
Total HRs — 20%
FIP-xFIP gap — 15%
Pool HR rate — 10%

Normalized across 484 qualified pitchers. 		Score +/- ? Change in composite susceptibility score versus the same as-of report 7 days earlier. The LongDong scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date; validated snapshots preserve the full pre-game view. HRs IP HR/IP ? Home runs allowed divided by innings pitched, derived from official season HR and IP columns. League avg: 0.126.

Above .167 equals 1.5 HR/9.
Above .222 equals 2.0 HR/9. 		HR/FB% ERA FIP xFIP Gap Pool
1
Luis Morales ATH 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 73 +0.0 5 12.0 0.417 31.2% 11.32 11.32 7.98 +3.34 4/17
2
Jameson Taillon CHC 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 70 +0.0 22 100th 71.0 0.310 23.2% 6.49 6.49 4.55 +1.94 16/115
3
Steven Cruz KC 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 70 +0.0 7 77th 19.7 0.355 38.9% 6.96 6.96 3.76 +3.20 ·
4
Dean Kremer BAL 🎯
+1 ⚠️ High 70 +0.0 4 11.0 0.364 33.3% 5.51 5.51 2.49 +3.02 2/9
5
Brady Singer CIN 🎯
-1 ⚠️ High 69 -0.3 18 100th 63.7 0.283 26.1% 6.38 6.38 4.40 +1.98 21/101
6
Luis Curvelo TEX 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 65 +0.0 5 10.7 0.467 26.3% 8.76 8.76 5.45 +3.31 ·
7
Ken Waldichuk WSH 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 65 +0.0 4 10.3 0.388 33.3% 8.39 8.39 5.16 +3.23 ·
8
Jonathan Hernández LAD 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 64 +0.0 4 11.7 0.342 36.4% 8.02 8.02 5.04 +2.98 ·
9
Taijuan Walker PHI 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 64 +0.0 8 81th 22.7 0.352 24.2% 7.82 7.82 5.51 +2.31 4/18
10
David Sandlin CWS 🎯
EVEN ⚠️ High 64 +0.0 4 13.0 0.308 33.3% 6.61 6.61 4.05 +2.56 3/18
11
Edward Cabrera CHC
EVEN ⚠️ High 63 +0.0 16 98th 65.7 0.244 27.1% 5.65 5.65 3.88 +1.77 13/106
12
Max Scherzer TOR
+1 ⚠️ High 62 +1.0 9 85th 26.7 0.337 22.5% 7.83 7.83 5.79 +2.04 10/44
13
Aaron Bummer ATL
-1 ⚠️ High 61 +0.0 6 16.7 0.359 30.0% 8.24 8.24 5.44 +2.80 ·
14
Ryan Weiss HOU
EVEN ⚠️ High 61 +0.0 8 81th 26.0 0.308 27.6% 7.15 7.15 4.89 +2.26 2/18
15
Tony Santillan CIN
EVEN ⚠️ High 60 +0.0 9 85th 27.3 0.330 27.3% 6.89 6.89 4.49 +2.40 ·
16
Trevor Martin TB
EVEN ⚠️ High 59 +0.0 4 10.7 0.374 28.6% 8.57 8.57 5.75 +2.82 ·
17
Valente Bellozo COL
EVEN ⚠️ High 59 +0.0 5 13.7 0.365 27.8% 8.62 8.62 5.93 +2.69 ·
18
Eric Lauer TOR
EVEN ⚠️ High 58 -0.6 15 98th 51.7 0.290 17.9% 6.57 6.57 5.34 +1.23 13/79
19
Mike Burrows HOU
EVEN ⚠️ High 57 +0.1 18 100th 83.3 0.216 19.1% 5.54 5.54 4.49 +1.05 20/120
20
Ryan Weathers NYY
+1 ⚠️ High 56 +0.3 16 98th 78.3 0.204 22.5% 4.52 4.52 3.27 +1.25 13/115
21
Cole Ragans KC
-1 ⚠️ High 56 +0.0 10 89th 39.3 0.254 23.3% 5.67 5.67 4.07 +1.60 11/71
22
Jeffrey Springs ATH
+3 📊 Elevated 54 +0.7 16 98th 76.7 0.209 17.2% 5.09 5.09 4.27 +0.82 24/122
23
Merrill Kelly AZ
-1 📊 Elevated 53 -0.4 15 98th 65.0 0.231 19.2% 6.38 6.38 5.25 +1.13 8/79
24
Mitchell Parker WSH
EVEN 📊 Elevated 53 +0.0 10 89th 36.3 0.275 23.8% 5.57 5.57 3.80 +1.77 ·
25
Griffin Canning SD
+1 📊 Elevated 53 +0.4 8 81th 36.0 0.222 25.8% 5.71 5.71 4.16 +1.55 8/70
26
Zack Littell WSH
+4 📊 Elevated 53 +0.6 16 98th 65.0 0.246 15.8% 6.21 6.21 5.44 +0.77 15/105
27
Justin Slaten BOS
EVEN 📊 Elevated 52 +0.0 4 14.3 0.280 28.6% 5.67 5.67 3.56 +2.11 ·
28
Nick Lodolo CIN
-5 📊 Elevated 52 -0.9 9 85th 37.7 0.239 22.0% 6.57 6.57 5.16 +1.41 6/41
29
Matt Strahm KC
EVEN 📊 Elevated 52 +0.0 8 81th 23.7 0.338 20.5% 6.99 6.99 5.17 +1.82 ·
30
Shota Imanaga CHC
-2 📊 Elevated 52 -0.4 17 99th 85.7 0.198 16.7% 4.67 4.67 3.94 +0.73 20/130
31
Erick Fedde CWS
EVEN 📊 Elevated 52 +0.0 14 96th 62.0 0.226 17.5% 6.10 6.10 5.18 +0.92 12/81
32
Germán Márquez SD
EVEN 📊 Elevated 52 +0.0 9 85th 32.3 0.279 19.6% 6.49 6.49 5.09 +1.40 6/54
33
Miles Mikolas WSH
EVEN 📊 Elevated 51 +0.0 14 96th 61.0 0.230 19.4% 5.67 5.67 4.53 +1.14 4/61
34
Kyle Freeland COL
EVEN 📊 Elevated 51 +0.1 14 96th 62.3 0.225 18.9% 5.49 5.49 4.43 +1.06 10/105
35
Tanner Bibee CLE
EVEN 📊 Elevated 51 +0.2 17 99th 87.3 0.195 16.7% 4.91 4.91 4.21 +0.70 17/134
36
Brandon Sproat MIL
+1 📊 Elevated 51 +0.2 12 93th 62.3 0.193 20.7% 5.45 5.45 4.39 +1.06 17/115
37
Foster Griffin WSH
+2 📊 Elevated 51 +0.7 15 98th 82.7 0.181 18.5% 4.65 4.65 3.82 +0.83 14/95
38
Nathan Eovaldi TEX
-2 📊 Elevated 51 +0.0 15 98th 84.3 0.178 20.0% 4.60 4.60 3.67 +0.93 13/123
39
Spencer Strider ATL
+1 📊 Elevated 50 +0.3 9 85th 37.7 0.239 19.1% 5.48 5.48 4.33 +1.15 12/70
40
Hunter Dobbins STL
NEW 📊 Elevated 50 +4.2 3 17.3 0.173 27.3% 4.42 4.42 3.16 +1.26 4/16
41
Robert Gasser MIL
-3 📊 Elevated 50 +0.0 6 24.3 0.247 19.4% 5.95 5.95 4.73 +1.22 8/35
42
Aaron Nola PHI
-1 📊 Elevated 50 +0.3 14 96th 73.0 0.192 18.4% 4.70 4.70 3.83 +0.87 15/114
43
Matthew Liberatore STL
+1 📊 Elevated 50 +0.6 14 96th 73.3 0.191 18.4% 4.87 4.87 4.00 +0.87 13/107
44
Grant Holmes ATL
-2 📊 Elevated 49 +0.0 13 95th 71.3 0.182 18.8% 5.18 5.18 4.32 +0.86 16/105
45
Ryne Nelson AZ
+1 📊 Elevated 49 +0.4 17 99th 81.7 0.208 14.7% 5.28 5.28 4.79 +0.49 14/120
46
Andrew Kittredge BAL
-3 📊 Elevated 49 +0.0 3 15.7 0.191 33.3% 4.68 4.68 3.09 +1.59 ·
47
Kodai Senga NYM
-2 📊 Elevated 49 +0.0 5 19.7 0.254 22.7% 6.25 6.25 4.69 +1.56 5/54
48
Luis Gil NYY
-1 📊 Elevated 49 +0.0 6 24.0 0.250 21.4% 6.94 6.94 5.51 +1.43 3/27
49
Zebby Matthews MIN
NEW 📊 Elevated 49 +3.2 8 81th 35.7 0.224 16.7% 5.31 5.31 4.49 +0.82 9/34
50
Justin Topa MIN
-2 📊 Elevated 48 +0.0 5 21.0 0.238 26.3% 6.67 6.67 4.99 +1.68 ·
🎯
Six home runs to freedom

The full target list is behind the plate

Sign up to see every susceptible pitcher ranked and scored — know exactly which arms to attack.

⚾ Unlock tonight's full slate → Pro Already have an account? Sign in
44 more waiting in the on-deck circle
How this works: The susceptibility score is a composite ranking using real season stats from FanGraphs: HR/FB% (30%), official HR/IP (25%), total HRs allowed (20%), and FIP-xFIP gap (15%), plus a 10% boost for pitchers who give up HRs to batters in our scored pool. FanGraphs season columns come from the loaded season cache or a validated snapshot; the LongDong scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date. Historical reconstructed views are directional only unless a validated pre-game snapshot is available. Pitchers qualify with at least 2 starts or 10 IP (484 qualify in this view). The top 10 are flagged with a 🎯 icon directly on the main slate table — so you never miss a soft matchup.

Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.

Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)
LD 3.3.16 · build 501
⚾

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.