Today · 2026-09-16

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⭐ Today's Slate

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🥇 Golden Slate 5 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#2 Pete Crow-Armstrong vs JR Ritchie FIP 5.49 HR/FB 20.0% #4 Aaron Judge vs Zebby Matthews FIP 5.04 HR/FB 27.0% #5 Ben Rice vs Zebby Matthews FIP 5.04 HR/FB 21.0% #12 Pro pick vs Zebby Matthews FIP 5.04 HR/FB 21.0% #15 Pro pick vs Mason Adams FIP 5.82 HR/FB 42.9%

📦 STACK Zebby Matthews FIP 5.04 HR/FB 27.0% → #4 Aaron Judge, #5 Ben Rice, #12 Pro pick

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-09-15. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

92.9% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Roster	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Last HR	Last 5	Due	BvP	BP	Weather
1	Kyle Schwarber (L)	84	·	●	WSH Bullpen Proxy PHI @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🟢 A	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	45	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%16.6% Avg EV92.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-09-15 OffJackson Kent Exit Velo98.3 mph Angle33.0° Distance366 ft StadiumNationals Park	○○○○●	0.0×	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.1% HR/91.40 FIP4.81 IP1329.6 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+17 Weather · Nationals Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp77°F Wind5 mph S Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+17 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 43 HR Note77°F, wind 5 mph S (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
2	Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) ³	76	·	●	JR Ritchie (RHP) ATL @ CHC · Wrigley Field	7:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	42	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-09-14 OffAJ Smith-Shawver Exit Velo95.8 mph Angle31.0° Distance373 ft StadiumWrigley Field	○○○●○	0.3×	·	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.9% HR/91.14 FIP4.19 IP1250.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-25 Weather · Wrigley Field mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70°F Wind5 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-25 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 41 HR Note70°F, wind 5 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
3	Matt Olson (L) ³	71	·	●	Shota Imanaga (LHP) ATL @ CHC · Wrigley Field	7:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	39	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%11.8% Avg EV92.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-09-13 OffTanner Banks Exit Velo101.9 mph Angle30.0° Distance400 ft StadiumTruist Park	●○●○○	0.7×	1	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.4% HR/91.57 FIP4.84 IP1110.5 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-26 Weather · Wrigley Field mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70°F Wind5 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-26 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 39 HR Note70°F, wind 5 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
4	Aaron Judge (R) ⁵	68	·	●	Zebby Matthews (RHP) NYY @ MIN · Target Field	1:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	18	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls10 BBE Barrel%14.9% Avg EV94.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-09-14 OffA.J. Minter Exit Velo104.2 mph Angle36.0° Distance415 ft StadiumTarget Field	○○○○●	0.0×	·	MIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.7% HR/91.23 FIP4.41 IP1315.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-29 Weather · Target Field cool air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65°F Wind6 mph SE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-29 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note65°F, wind 6 mph SE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
5	Ben Rice (L) ⁴	68	·	●	Zebby Matthews (RHP) NYY @ MIN · Target Field	1:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	38	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%12.4% Avg EV92.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-09-13 OffChristian Scott Exit Velo95.3 mph Angle40.0° Distance333 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	○●●○○	0.7×	1	MIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.7% HR/91.23 FIP4.41 IP1315.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-28 Weather · Target Field cool air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65°F Wind6 mph SE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-28 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 37 HR Note65°F, wind 6 mph SE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
6	Pro pick (R) ³	68	·	●	Robbie Ray (LHP) SD @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%11.1% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.7% HR/91.09 FIP4.13 IP1259.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+2 Weather · Coors Field warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind6 mph NW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+2 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 37 HR Note80°F, wind 6 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
7	Pro pick (L) ³	67	·	●	Zack Wheeler (RHP) PHI @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%11.6% Avg EV95.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.2% HR/91.19 FIP3.81 IP1307.2 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+24 Weather · Nationals Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp77°F Wind5 mph S Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+24 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 30 HR Note77°F, wind 5 mph S (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
8	Pro pick (L) ³	65	·	●	Cristian Javier (RHP) KC @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%10.4% Avg EV91.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	HOU Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.34 FIP4.67 IP1319.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+5 Weather · Minute Maid Park hot air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp87°F Wind5 mph ESE Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+5 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 24 HR Note87°F, wind 5 mph ESE (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
9	Pro pick (R) ³	64	·	●	Brady Basso (LHP) ATH @ TB · Tropicana Field	6:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%8.9% Avg EV92.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	ATH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.1% HR/91.50 FIP4.93 IP1357.6 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+0 Weather · Tropicana Field neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 40 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
10	Pro pick (L) ³	63	·	●	Zebby Matthews (RHP) NYY @ MIN · Target Field	1:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%11.7% Avg EV91.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	MIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.7% HR/91.23 FIP4.41 IP1315.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-26 Weather · Target Field cool air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65°F Wind6 mph SE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-26 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 28 HR Note65°F, wind 6 mph SE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
11	Pro pick (L) ³	65	·	●	WSH Bullpen Proxy PHI @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🔵 C+	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%11.0% Avg EV90.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.1% HR/91.40 FIP4.81 IP1329.6 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+24 Weather · Nationals Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp77°F Wind5 mph S Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+24 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 28 HR Note77°F, wind 5 mph S (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
12	Pro pick (R) ³	61	·	●	Keider Montero (RHP) DET @ TOR · Rogers Centre	3:07p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	DET Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.4% HR/91.07 FIP4.07 IP1399.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-8 Weather · Rogers Centre warm air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp75°F Wind3 mph NNW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-8 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 32 HR Note75°F, wind 3 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
13	Pro pick (R) ³	60	·	●	Mason Adams (RHP) SD @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%9.6% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.40 FIP4.89 IP1348.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+6 Weather · Coors Field warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind6 mph NW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+6 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 28 HR Note80°F, wind 6 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
14	Pro pick (L) ³	60	·	●	Chris Bassitt (RHP) BAL @ NYM · Citi Field	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%8.6% Avg EV92.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.4% HR/91.06 FIP4.10 IP1301.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+21 Weather · Citi Field warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72°F Wind5 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+21 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 25 HR Note72°F, wind 5 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
15	Pro pick (R) ³	60	·	●	Robert Stock (RHP) BAL @ NYM · Citi Field	7:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%10.5% Avg EV93.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	NYM Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.15 FIP4.16 IP1498.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+23 Weather · Citi Field warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72°F Wind5 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+23 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 35 HR Note72°F, wind 5 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
16	Pro pick (L) ³	60	·	●	Zack Wheeler (RHP) PHI @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%8.2% Avg EV89.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.2% HR/91.19 FIP3.81 IP1307.2 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+21 Weather · Nationals Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp77°F Wind5 mph S Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+21 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceblend · 1 HR Note77°F, wind 5 mph S (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
17	Pro pick (L) ³	59	·	●	Daniel Lynch IV (LHP) KC @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%9.9% Avg EV94.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	KC Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.9% HR/91.26 FIP4.67 IP1311.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+7 Weather · Minute Maid Park hot air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp87°F Wind5 mph ESE Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+7 · Neutral Spray Sourceblend · 3 HR Note87°F, wind 5 mph ESE (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
18	Pro pick (S) ³	59	·	●	Blake Snell (LHP) LAD @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	6:40p	🟠 C	SHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%7.5% Avg EV94.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.20 FIP4.00 IP1287.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+1 Weather · Great American Ball Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp85°F Wind4 mph NW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+1 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 27 HR Note85°F, wind 4 mph NW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
19	Pro pick (L) ³	59	·	●	Jake Bennett (LHP) BOS @ TEX · Globe Life Field	8:05p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV91.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	BOS Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.6% HR/90.97 FIP3.70 IP1320.4 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+3 Weather · Globe Life Field hot air · light partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp97°F Wind7 mph SSE Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+3 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note97°F, wind 7 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
20	Pro pick (L) ³	59	·	●	Shota Imanaga (LHP) ATL @ CHC · Wrigley Field	7:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls37 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV91.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.4% HR/91.57 FIP4.84 IP1110.5 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-27 Weather · Wrigley Field mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70°F Wind5 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-27 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note70°F, wind 5 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
21	Pro pick (S) ³	59	·	●	JR Ritchie (RHP) ATL @ CHC · Wrigley Field	7:40p	🟠 C	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls20 BBE Barrel%10.1% Avg EV89.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.9% HR/91.14 FIP4.19 IP1250.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-25 Weather · Wrigley Field mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70°F Wind5 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-25 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note70°F, wind 5 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
22	Pro pick (R) ³	59	·	●	JR Ritchie (RHP) ATL @ CHC · Wrigley Field	7:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%9.8% Avg EV88.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.9% HR/91.14 FIP4.19 IP1250.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-27 Weather · Wrigley Field mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70°F Wind5 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-27 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 24 HR Note70°F, wind 5 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
23	Pro pick (R) ³	58	·	●	MacKenzie Gore (LHP) BOS @ TEX · Globe Life Field	8:05p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls3 BBE Barrel%10.5% Avg EV89.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TEX Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.23 FIP4.14 IP1269.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+13 Weather · Globe Life Field hot air · light partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp97°F Wind7 mph SSE Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+13 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 26 HR Note97°F, wind 7 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
24	Pro pick (R) ³	58	·	●	Max Scherzer (RHP) DET @ TOR · Rogers Centre	3:07p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%10.3% Avg EV89.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.5% HR/91.02 FIP3.85 IP1250.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-7 Weather · Rogers Centre warm air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp75°F Wind3 mph NNW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-7 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note75°F, wind 3 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
25	Pro pick (L) ³	58	·	●	Merrill Kelly (RHP) MIA @ AZ · Chase Field	9:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%11.8% Avg EV92.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	AZ Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.11 FIP4.29 IP1308.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+2 Weather · Chase Field hot air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp82°F Wind4 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+2 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note82°F, wind 4 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
26	Pro pick (L) ³	58	·	●	Mason Adams (RHP) SD @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls40 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV91.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.40 FIP4.89 IP1348.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+14 Weather · Coors Field warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind6 mph NW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+14 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 24 HR Note80°F, wind 6 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
27	Pro pick (L) ³	58	·	●	Max Scherzer (RHP) DET @ TOR · Rogers Centre	3:07p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%11.7% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.5% HR/91.02 FIP3.85 IP1250.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-8 Weather · Rogers Centre warm air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp75°F Wind3 mph NNW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-8 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note75°F, wind 3 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
28	Pro pick (R) ³	58	·	●	Nick Martinez (RHP) ATH @ TB · Tropicana Field	6:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls4 BBE Barrel%10.0% Avg EV91.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.21 FIP4.06 IP1281.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Tropicana Field neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
29	Pro pick (R) ³	58	·	●	Robert Stock (RHP) BAL @ NYM · Citi Field	7:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%10.1% Avg EV91.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	NYM Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.15 FIP4.16 IP1498.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+27 Weather · Citi Field warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72°F Wind5 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+27 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR Note72°F, wind 5 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
30	Pro pick (R) ³	57	·	●	Nick Martinez (RHP) ATH @ TB · Tropicana Field	6:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%8.0% Avg EV89.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.21 FIP4.06 IP1281.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Tropicana Field neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

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Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

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Full board + 6-pick cards — Pro

Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

17.6%

▲ +1.4 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 16.9% prior 15d

Yesterday · 2026-09-15

31 HRs

25%

8 caught / 31 HRs

in top 50

#1 Kyle Schwarber

28.0%

🟡

#3 Junior Caminero

32.4%

🔵

#6 Yordan Alvarez

17.0%

🔵

#13 Pete Alonso

25.1%

🔵

#14 Coby Mayo

31.7%

🔵

#21 Ronald Acuña Jr.

28.2%

🟠

#37 Fernando Tatís

27.6%

🟠

#39 Spencer Torkelson

24.8%

🟠

Missed

Christian Encarnacion-Strand Drake Baldwin Andrés Chaparro Teoscar Hernández Jeremy Peña +18 more

7-Day Streaks

top 50 pool

🔥 Hot

Coby Mayo ×3 Kazuma Okamoto ×3 Max Muncy ×3 Elly De La Cruz ×2 Eugenio Suárez ×2

❄️ Cold

Colson Montgomery 0 of 6d Cal Raleigh 0 of 5d Riley Greene 0 of 5d Spencer Jones 0 of 5d Sal Stewart 0 of 4d

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 19.3%

B 20.1%

C+ 17.3%

C 13.9%

D 9.1%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Today · 2026-09-16

The free preview stops at 5. Tonight's board doesn't.

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.