TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ PIT

Suppressed air · 0.90×

MIL @ PIT

PNC Park · 6:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 2 mph cross 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

6:40p

-3 ↑

7:40p

-3 ↑

8:40p

-3 ↑

9:40p

-3 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -2

Best of game Jake Bauers conv 32 · vs Jones ⟷ Ryan O'Hearn conv 27 · vs Henderson → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Jared Jones RHP · PIT

leak 84

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Bauers — C ●●●●●

2 William Contreras — D ●●●●○

3 Jackson Chourio — C ●●●○○

FADE Logan Henderson RHP · MIL

leak 82

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ryan O'Hearn — D ●●●●○

2 Bryan Reynolds — D ●●○○○

3 Brandon Lowe — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: 13.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 37.5% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ vs Jones Edge — 0.229 · 92.4 · 10.4% 37.5% 26.5% F B O C 56

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Jones — 0.200 · 91.7 · 9.9% 25.0% 18.4% F B O C 50

· PIT Oneil Cruz COOL vs Henderson Edge — 0.205 · 94.8 · 11.6% 8.3% 15.3% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· MIL William Contreras HOT vs Jones — 0.147 · 90.4 · 8.3% 40.0% 14.7% F B O D 43

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn COOL vs Henderson Edge — 0.186 · 89.3 · 7.6% 33.3% 20.2% F B O D 43

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Jones Edge — 0.162 · 93.3 · 9.8% 18.2% 18.4% F B O D 44

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Jones Edge — 0.176 · 90.1 · 7.8% 18.2% 16.8% F B O D 43

· PIT Bryan Reynolds HOT vs Henderson Edge — 0.163 · 91.1 · 9.9% 16.7% 10.8% F B O D 42

· PIT Brandon Lowe COOL vs Henderson Edge — 0.216 · 90.9 · 9.7% 11.1% 14.2% F B O D 48

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Jones Edge — 0.146 · 89.1 · 8.7% 12.5% 9.2% F B O D 39

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Jones — 0.137 · 88.9 · 5.8% 11.1% 8.5% F B O D 34

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Henderson Edge — 0.086 · 85.6 · 4.2% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 23

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Jones Edge — 0.092 · 86.9 · 5.0% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 27

· MIL Sal Frelick vs Jones Edge — 0.091 · 86.1 · 4.4% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 46.2% ← leak BRK 42.3% OFF 11.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.5% 13.1% 12.2% 13.8% C 56 —

Jackson Chourio R

12.9% 11.0% 9.3% 11.8% C 50 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

105

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

13.8% 12.3% 5.3% 12.2% D 44 —

117

Brice Turang L Edge

8.2% 10.0% 2.8% 7.7% D 43 —

118

William Contreras R

8.7% 9.9% 2.1% 8.3% D 43 —

157

Christian Yelich L Edge

9.4% 8.2% 11.1% 9.3% D 39 —

188

Joey Ortiz R

4.7% 5.1% 0.0% 4.4% D 34 —

215

David Hamilton L Edge

3.2% 5.3% 0.0% 3.3% D 27 —

218

Sal Frelick L Edge

2.1% 4.3% 0.0% 2.4% D 26 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.2% usage) carries Jones's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 62.1% OFF 34.8% BRK 3.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Oneil Cruz L Edge

15.8% 11.9% 18.0% 15.7% C 50 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Brandon Lowe L Edge

14.7% 8.6% 7.7% 11.3% D 48 —

115

Ryan O'Hearn L Edge

7.8% 3.3% 6.8% 7.1% D 43 —

128

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

12.7% 7.9% 13.1% 11.8% D 42 —

222

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.1% D 23 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Henderson's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Chourio Mitchell Turang Contreras O'Hearn Reynolds

Legend

attack side — vs Jones fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Jake Bauers — · 56

Jackson Chourio — · 50

Ryan O'Hearn — · 43

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.90× Wind 2 mph cross 76°F open

-2

↑

2 mph · cross

82°F

6:40p · peak

-3

↑

1 mph · in

79°F

7:40p

-3

↑

1 mph · in

76°F

8:40p

-3

↑

1 mph · in

74°F

9:40p

-3

↑

2 mph · cross

71°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.90× 76°F, wind 2 mph NE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jared Jones · RHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 56 C — · 35 0.229 92.4 10.4% 28.1%vs RHP 401 20.2% 37.5% 26.5% 18

2 Jackson Chourio 50 C — COOL 59 0.200 91.7 9.9% 19.5%vs RHP 400 17.3% 25.0% 18.4% 41

3 Garrett Mitchell 44 D — WARM 105 0.162 93.3 9.8% 26.3%vs RHP 417 8.4% 18.2% 18.4% 23

4 Brice Turang 43 D — COOL 117 0.176 90.1 7.8% 24.6%vs RHP 406 11.2% 18.2% 16.8% 28

5 William Contreras 43 D — HOT 118 0.147 90.4 8.3% 15.7%vs RHP 408 11.9% 40.0% 14.7% 27

6 Christian Yelich 39 D — COOL 157 0.146 89.1 8.7% 20.0%vs RHP 397 8.8% 12.5% 9.2% 24

7 Joey Ortiz 34 D — WARM 188 0.137 88.9 5.8% 18.9%vs RHP 392 8.0% 11.1% 8.5% 22

8 David Hamilton 27 D — COOL 215 0.092 86.9 5.0% 5.6%vs RHP 386 4.2% 0.0% 6.7% 14

9 Sal Frelick 26 D — WARM 218 0.091 86.1 4.4% 6.0%vs RHP 396 3.4% 0.0% 6.7% 23

vs Logan Henderson · RHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Oneil Cruz 50 C — COOL 61 0.205 94.8 11.6% 38.9%vs RHP 414 21.5% 8.3% 15.3% 26

2 Brandon Lowe 48 D — COOL 70 0.216 90.9 9.7% 25.3%vs RHP 390 17.3% 11.1% 14.2% 26

3 Ryan O'Hearn 43 D — COOL 115 0.186 89.3 7.6% 22.9%vs RHP 385 14.1% 33.3% 20.2% 8

4 Bryan Reynolds 42 D — HOT 128 0.163 91.1 9.9% 14.1%vs RHP 407 10.9% 16.7% 10.8% 35

5 Jake Mangum 23 D — WARM 222 0.086 85.6 4.2% 8.1%vs RHP 393 4.0% 0.0% 6.9% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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