TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ NYM

Suppressed air · 0.98×

BAL @ NYM

Citi Field · 7:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind 5 mph out 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

7:10p

+4 ↑

8:10p

+3 ↑

9:10p

+4 ↑

10:10p

+4 ↑

11:10p

the 7:10p window peaks +4

Best of game Francisco Lindor conv 29 · vs Bassitt ⟷ Pete Alonso conv 26 · vs Stock → edge: Juan Soto

ATTACK Chris Bassitt RHP · BAL

leak 77

1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · leakiest side of this game

1 Francisco Lindor — C ●●●●○

2 Juan Soto — C+ ●●●●○

3 Brett Baty — D ●●○○○

FADE Robert Stock RHP · NYM

leak 3

0.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.96 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Alonso — C+ ●●●●○

2 Coby Mayo — C ●●●●○

3 Gunnar Henderson — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Juan Soto: 13.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Bassitt Edge — 0.210 · 91.2 · 7.0% 33.3% 24.0% F B O C 54

· NYM Juan Soto ✶ vs Bassitt Edge — 0.253 · 92.5 · 8.6% 25.0% 29.0% F B O C+ 60

· BAL Pete Alonso COOL vs Stock — 0.229 · 93.8 · 10.5% 30.8% 21.0% F B O C+ 60

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Stock — 0.237 · 91.4 · 10.1% 33.3% 18.2% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· NYM Brett Baty HOT vs Bassitt Edge — 0.135 · 90.2 · 7.4% 12.5% 13.9% F B O D 42

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Bassitt Edge — 0.139 · 88.7 · 6.0% 16.7% 8.6% F B O D 41

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Bassitt — 0.130 · 89.6 · 5.9% 16.7% 7.5% F B O D 39

· NYM Jared Young vs Bassitt Edge — 0.163 · 90.0 · 6.2% 12.5% 10.5% F B O D 42

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Stock Edge — 0.179 · 89.2 · 7.7% 7.7% 10.2% F B O D 45

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Bassitt — 0.167 · 90.4 · 9.0% 0.0% 17.7% F B O D 43

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Bassitt Edge — 0.129 · 89.4 · 6.2% 0.0% 13.8% F B O D 36

· BAL Samuel Basallo COOL vs Stock Edge — 0.183 · 90.4 · 9.8% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 47

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Stock Edge — 0.148 · 88.1 · 9.0% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 43

· BAL Jackson Holliday COOL vs Stock Edge — 0.111 · 87.0 · 7.1% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 35

· NYM Marcus Semien vs Bassitt — 0.125 · 86.7 · 5.7% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 36

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Stock Edge — 0.127 · 88.1 · 5.6% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 77.6% BRK 12.1% OFF 8.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Pete Alonso R

15.2% 10.1% 16.3% 13.8% C+ 60 —

Coby Mayo R

10.9% 15.1% 15.2% 12.9% C 58 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Samuel Basallo L Edge

14.2% 9.6% 11.5% 12.2% D 47 —

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

7.5% 7.8% 6.7% 7.4% D 45 —

121

Colton Cowser L Edge

11.7% 13.7% 3.8% 10.1% D 43 —

181

Jackson Holliday L Edge

7.0% 5.2% 6.1% 6.4% D 35 —

189

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.1% 7.8% 0.0% 4.0% D 34 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Stock's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 64.4% ← leak BRK 30.8% OFF 4.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Juan Soto L Edge

18.1% 11.5% 5.8% 13.9% C+ 60 —

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.4% 5.7% 6.3% 9.2% C 54 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

114

Francisco Alvarez R

14.8% 15.9% 14.8% 15.2% D 43 —

126

Brett Baty L Edge

9.0% 15.4% 5.4% 9.7% D 42 —

130

Jared Young L Edge

7.0% 5.8% 9.8% 7.1% D 42 —

143

Carson Benge L Edge

6.0% 7.5% 6.8% 6.5% D 41 —

158

Bo Bichette R

5.7% 9.8% 0.0% 6.3% D 39 —

171

A.J. Ewing L Edge

7.1% 11.4% 2.0% 7.3% D 36 —

177

Marcus Semien R

8.8% 1.7% 5.4% 6.1% D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.4% usage) carries Bassitt's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Soto Lindor Baty

Legend

attack side — vs Bassitt fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Francisco Lindor — · 54

Juan Soto — · 60

Pete Alonso — · 60

Coby Mayo — · 58

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.98× Wind 5 mph out 72°F open

↑

5 mph · out

76°F

7:10p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

75°F

8:10p

↑

4 mph · out

74°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · out

74°F

10:10p

↑

4 mph · out

73°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 72°F, wind 5 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Robert Stock · RHP 0.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.96 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 60 C+ — COOL 16 0.229 93.8 10.5% 30.9%vs RHP 402 21.9% 30.8% 21.0% 33

2 Coby Mayo 58 C — · 31 0.237 91.4 10.1% 15.2%vs RHP 411 18.8% 33.3% 18.2% 31

3 Samuel Basallo 47 D — COOL 83 0.183 90.4 9.8% 25.9%vs RHP 399 13.3% 0.0% 11.5% 20

4 Gunnar Henderson 45 D — COOL 98 0.179 89.2 7.7% 17.4%vs RHP 393 14.1% 7.7% 10.2% 27

5 Colton Cowser 43 D — WARM 121 0.148 88.1 9.0% 20.7%vs RHP 412 14.3% 0.0% 8.8% 11

6 Jackson Holliday 35 D — COOL 181 0.111 87.0 7.1% 14.0%vs RHP 389 4.4% 0.0% 7.1% 32

7 Leody Taveras 34 D — COOL 189 0.127 88.1 5.6% 12.1%vs RHP 403 4.6% 0.0% 6.9% 12

vs Chris Bassitt · RHP 1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto ✶ 60 C+ — · 15 0.253 92.5 8.6% 31.2%vs RHP 401 20.6% 25.0% 29.0% 38

2 Francisco Lindor 54 C — · 42 0.210 91.2 7.0% 22.4%vs RHP 390 16.5% 33.3% 24.0% 36

3 Francisco Alvarez 43 D — WARM 114 0.167 90.4 9.0% 28.6%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 17.7% 17

4 Brett Baty 42 D — HOT 126 0.135 90.2 7.4% 13.9%vs RHP 396 7.0% 12.5% 13.9% 19

5 Jared Young 42 D — · 130 0.163 90.0 6.2% 18.4%vs RHP 396 7.2% 12.5% 10.5% 26

6 Carson Benge 41 D — COOL 143 0.139 88.7 6.0% 14.8%vs RHP 395 11.1% 16.7% 8.6% 31

7 Bo Bichette 39 D — WARM 158 0.130 89.6 5.9% 11.6%vs RHP 388 10.3% 16.7% 7.5% 36

8 A.J. Ewing 36 D — WARM 171 0.129 89.4 6.2% 15.4%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 32

9 Marcus Semien 36 D — WARM 177 0.125 86.7 5.7% 13.4%vs RHP 391 9.7% 0.0% 6.9% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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