TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ TEX

Globe Life Field is live · 1.35×

BOS @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:05p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 7 mph slight_out 97°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+8 ↑

7:05p

+6 ↑

8:05p

+6 ↑

9:05p

+5 ↑

10:05p

+5 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +8

Best of game Nick Sogard conv 14 · vs Gore ⟷ Corey Seager conv 30 · vs Bennett → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK MacKenzie Gore LHP · TEX

leak 77

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nick Sogard — D ●●○○○

2 Willson Contreras — C ●●○○○

3 Wilyer Abreu — C ●●○○○

FADE Jake Bennett LHP · BOS

leak 3

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · stingy — thin edge

1 Corey Seager — C ●●●●●

2 Joc Pederson — C+ ●●●●○

3 Jake Burger — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Corey Seager vs Bennett — 0.206 · 91.8 · 10.9% 41.7% 19.0% F B O C 59

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ COOL vs Bennett — 0.250 · 92.1 · 9.5% 33.3% 22.5% F B O C+ 61

· TEX Jake Burger vs Bennett Edge — 0.193 · 90.0 · 9.8% 16.7% 26.8% F B O C 55

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Bennett Edge — 0.199 · 89.0 · 7.6% 16.7% 21.0% F B O C 51

· BOS Willson Contreras vs Gore Edge — 0.240 · 89.7 · 10.5% 0.0% 22.1% F B O C 58

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Gore — 0.208 · 89.9 · 10.3% 9.1% 11.8% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Bennett Edge — 0.171 · 88.9 · 7.0% 16.7% 13.0% F B O D 46

· BOS Nick Sogard vs Gore Edge — 0.137 · 86.8 · 6.2% 18.2% 10.5% F B O D 42

· TEX Evan Carter vs Bennett — 0.126 · 88.0 · 6.4% 16.7% 6.2% F B O D 39

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Gore — 0.156 · 89.8 · 9.0% 10.0% 8.2% F B O D 47

· BOS Caleb Durbin vs Gore Edge — 0.135 · 83.4 · 4.9% 9.1% 8.9% F B O D 37

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Gore Edge — 0.145 · 87.7 · 7.5% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 42

· TEX Josh Jung COOL vs Bennett Edge — 0.143 · 90.4 · 7.0% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 41

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Bennett — 0.150 · 92.2 · 8.7% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 44

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs Bennett — 0.041 · 84.5 · — 0.0% 4.9% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.8% ← leak BRK 28.0% OFF 13.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Willson Contreras R Edge

10.7% 13.6% 22.0% 12.9% C 58 —

Wilyer Abreu L

11.7% 15.4% 10.9% 12.4% C 54 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Jarren Duran L

11.8% 7.9% 6.3% 9.6% D 47 —

127

Andruw Monasterio R Edge

6.7% 6.1% 10.0% 6.8% D 42 —

129

Nick Sogard S Edge

5.4% 3.1% 3.4% 4.5% D 42 —

170

Caleb Durbin R Edge

3.5% 1.9% 2.4% 3.0% D 37 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.8% usage) carries Gore's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 63.9% ← leak OFF 26.3% BRK 9.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Joc Pederson L

13.9% 3.0% 14.1% 11.3% C+ 61 —

Corey Seager L

14.4% 18.2% 13.6% 14.9% C 59 —

Jake Burger R Edge

11.6% 17.1% 11.4% 12.2% C 55 —

Wyatt Langford R Edge

5.7% 10.3% 9.5% 7.2% C 51 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Ezequiel Duran R Edge

7.4% 0.0% 6.4% 6.2% D 46 —

113

Brandon Nimmo L

7.6% 6.3% 15.6% 9.5% D 44 —

141

Josh Jung R Edge

8.2% 3.3% 3.2% 6.1% D 41 —

160

Evan Carter L

7.3% 0.0% 3.8% 5.3% D 39 —

224

Nicky Lopez L

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 20 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.9% usage) carries Bennett's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Sogard Pederson Seager Burger Langford Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Gore fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Corey Seager — · 59

Joc Pederson — · 61

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof retractable

Park 1.04× Wind 7 mph slight_out 97°F retractable

↑

7 mph · slight_out

97°F

7:05p · peak

↑

6 mph · slight_out

96°F

8:05p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

94°F

9:05p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

92°F

10:05p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

91°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.35× 97°F, wind 7 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs MacKenzie Gore · LHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.02 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 58 C — WARM 25 0.240 89.7 10.5% 24.1%vs LHP 405 18.9% 0.0% 22.1% 3

2 Wilyer Abreu 54 C — WARM 46 0.208 89.9 10.3% 15.0%vs LHP 406 15.8% 9.1% 11.8% 30

3 Jarren Duran 47 D — · 87 0.156 89.8 9.0% 10.0%vs LHP 401 13.8% 10.0% 8.2% 24

4 Andruw Monasterio 42 D — COOL 127 0.145 87.7 7.5% 16.1%vs LHP 390 10.0% 0.0% 12.1% 6

5 Nick Sogard 42 D — WARM 129 0.137 86.8 6.2% 28.6%vs LHP 387 12.8% 18.2% 10.5% 26

6 Caleb Durbin 37 D — WARM 170 0.135 83.4 4.9% 14.8%vs LHP 376 8.5% 9.1% 8.9% 23

vs Jake Bennett · LHP 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 61 C+ — COOL 13 0.250 92.1 9.5% 24.8% 396 23.2% 33.3% 22.5% 15

2 Corey Seager 59 C — · 20 0.206 91.8 10.9% 25.0%vs LHP 397 18.7% 41.7% 19.0% 39

3 Jake Burger 55 C — WARM 37 0.193 90.0 9.8% 37.5%vs LHP 402 16.2% 16.7% 26.8% 22

4 Wyatt Langford 51 C — WARM 55 0.199 89.0 7.6% 12.5%vs LHP 401 15.3% 16.7% 21.0% 23

5 Ezequiel Duran 46 D — · 92 0.171 88.9 7.0% 16.0%vs LHP 397 13.0% 16.7% 13.0% 35

6 Brandon Nimmo 44 D — COOL 113 0.150 92.2 8.7% 14.7%vs LHP 404 9.3% 0.0% 7.2% 29

7 Josh Jung 41 D — COOL 141 0.143 90.4 7.0% 13.3%vs LHP 386 9.7% 0.0% 9.1% 9

8 Evan Carter 39 D — WARM 160 0.126 88.0 6.4% 0.0%vs LHP 380 7.4% 16.7% 6.2% 16

9 Nicky Lopez 20 D — COOL 224 0.041 84.5 — 0.0%vs LHP 397 1.8% 0.0% 4.9% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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