TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ CIN

Great American Ball Park is live · 1.28×

LAD @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 6:40p · 12 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 4 mph out 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

6:40p

+6 ↑

7:40p

+3 ↑

8:40p

+1 ↑

9:40p

+1 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +8

Best of game Mookie Betts conv 26 · vs Abbott ⟷ Elly De La Cruz conv 38 · vs Snell → edge: Elly De La Cruz

ATTACK Andrew Abbott LHP · CIN

leak 80

1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · leakiest side of this game

1 Mookie Betts — C ●●●●○

2 Kyle Tucker — C ●●●●○

3 Freddie Freeman — D ●○○○○

FADE Blake Snell LHP · LAD

leak 3

0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.34 · stingy — thin edge

1 Elly De La Cruz — C ●●●●●

2 Eugenio Suarez — D ●●○○○

3 Tyler Stephenson — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Elly De La Cruz: Match 25.3% · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Elly De La Cruz ✶ HOT vs Snell Edge — 0.230 · 94.7 · 7.5% 50.0% 25.3% F B O C 59

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Abbott Edge — 0.183 · 90.2 · 8.0% 30.8% 20.3% F B O C 55

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Abbott — 0.149 · 88.8 · 7.3% 30.8% 16.4% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Snell Edge — 0.221 · 88.4 · 6.5% 0.0% 21.7% F B O D 44

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Abbott — 0.154 · 89.4 · 8.1% 8.3% 10.8% F B O D 48

· LAD Tommy Edman COOL vs Abbott Edge — 0.130 · 87.4 · 6.5% 8.3% 10.4% F B O D 44

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Snell Edge — 0.173 · 91.1 · 6.6% 9.1% 7.7% F B O D 43

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez HOT vs Abbott Edge — 0.159 · 90.4 · 9.3% 0.0% 16.2% F B O D 47

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Snell Edge — 0.154 · 88.3 · 5.7% 0.0% 14.4% F B O D 39

· CIN Sal Stewart COOL vs Snell Edge — 0.205 · 90.2 · 6.6% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 47

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Snell — 0.201 · 88.4 · 5.8% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 44

· CIN Dane Myers vs Snell Edge — 0.107 · 89.3 · 3.8% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.0% ← leak BRK 32.7% OFF 19.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Mookie Betts R Edge

8.3% 5.8% 8.7% 7.8% C 55 —

Kyle Tucker L

8.4% 5.0% 1.2% 6.2% C 50 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Freddie Freeman L

8.5% 7.3% 7.5% 8.0% D 48 —

Teoscar Hernandez R Edge

10.4% 10.9% 11.9% 10.8% D 47 —

110

Tommy Edman S Edge

5.2% 2.8% 6.8% 5.1% D 44 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.0% usage) carries Abbott's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 49.4% BRK 32.9% OFF 17.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

20.3% 12.3% 8.8% 15.9% C 59 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Sal Stewart R Edge

14.5% 10.6% 8.2% 12.4% D 47 —

103

Eugenio Suarez R Edge

14.4% 7.4% 4.3% 12.0% D 44 —

104

Jj Bleday L

11.9% 5.8% 6.2% 9.4% D 44 —

122

Tyler Stephenson R Edge

16.1% 6.8% 4.0% 12.4% D 43 —

153

Matt Mclain R Edge

10.4% 9.4% 3.6% 9.4% D 39 —

200

Dane Myers R Edge

3.7% 4.7% 4.0% 4.1% D 32 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Snell's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Betts Tucker Cruz

Legend

attack side — vs Abbott fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Elly De La Cruz — · 59

Mookie Betts — · 55

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 4 mph out 85°F open

↑

4 mph · out

91°F

6:40p · peak

↑

4 mph · slight_out

90°F

7:40p

↑

4 mph · cross

88°F

8:40p

↑

3 mph · in

85°F

9:40p

↑

2 mph · in

82°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.28× 85°F, wind 4 mph NW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andrew Abbott · LHP 1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.27 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mookie Betts 55 C — WARM 38 0.183 90.2 8.0% 12.2%vs LHP 389 13.0% 30.8% 20.3% 38

2 Kyle Tucker 50 C — WARM 60 0.149 88.8 7.3% 10.5%vs LHP 391 9.2% 30.8% 16.4% 34

3 Freddie Freeman 48 D — COOL 74 0.154 89.4 8.1% 14.7%vs LHP 399 9.6% 8.3% 10.8% 20

4 Teoscar Hernandez 47 D — HOT 77 0.159 90.4 9.3% 23.3%vs LHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 30

5 Tommy Edman 44 D — COOL 110 0.130 87.4 6.5% 27.3%vs LHP 396 8.2% 8.3% 10.4% 33

vs Blake Snell · LHP 0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.34 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz ✶ 59 C — HOT 19 0.230 94.7 7.5% 41.7%vs LHP 404 18.3% 50.0% 25.3% 29

2 Sal Stewart 47 D — COOL 82 0.205 90.2 6.6% 27.6%vs LHP 397 16.9% 0.0% 11.8% 32

3 Eugenio Suarez 44 D — WARM 103 0.221 88.4 6.5% 28.6%vs LHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 21.7% 24

4 Jj Bleday 44 D — COOL 104 0.201 88.4 5.8% 19.2%vs LHP 389 15.4% 0.0% 10.5% 22

5 Tyler Stephenson 43 D — · 122 0.173 91.1 6.6% 8.0%vs LHP 392 10.0% 9.1% 7.7% 24

6 Matt Mclain 39 D — COOL 153 0.154 88.3 5.7% 24.0%vs LHP 391 10.0% 0.0% 14.4% 18

7 Dane Myers 32 D — WARM 200 0.107 89.3 3.8% 14.3%vs LHP 384 5.9% 0.0% 6.5% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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