TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.12×

SD @ COL

Coors Field · 8:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 6 mph cross 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

6:40p

+2 ↑

7:40p

+5 ↑

8:40p

+5 ↑

9:40p

+4 ↑

10:40p

the 8:40p window peaks +5

Best of game Manny Machado conv 34 · vs Adams ⟷ Hunter Goodman conv 23 · vs Ray → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Mason Adams RHP · COL

leak 100

2.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.23 · leakiest side of this game

1 Manny Machado — C+ ●●●●●

2 Jackson Merrill — C ●●●○○

3 Ty France — C ●●○○○

FADE Robbie Ray LHP · SF

leak 72

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Hunter Goodman — C+ ●●●●○

2 Cole Carrigg — D ●●●○○

3 Mickey Moniak — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 15.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Manny Machado vs Adams — 0.194 · 90.4 · 9.6% 36.4% 31.6% F B O C+ 60

· — Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Ray Edge — 0.284 · 90.1 · 11.1% 20.0% 26.2% F B O C+ 68

· SD Jackson Merrill HOT vs Adams Edge — 0.189 · 91.4 · 10.9% 16.7% 21.9% F B O C 58

· — Mickey Moniak COOL vs Ray — 0.242 · 89.4 · 8.9% 14.3% 18.2% F B O C 57

· SD Ty France vs Adams — 0.215 · 92.0 · 9.6% 10.0% 20.4% F B O C 57

· SD Fernando Tatis vs Adams — 0.173 · 93.0 · 10.8% 0.0% 25.3% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· — Cole Carrigg vs Ray Edge — 0.182 · 87.4 · 6.5% 25.0% 14.7% F B O D 48

· — Kyle Karros vs Ray Edge — 0.161 · 89.3 · 8.3% 14.3% 10.9% F B O D 47

· — Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Ray Edge — 0.123 · 87.5 · 7.3% 11.1% 8.5% F B O D 41

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Adams Edge — 0.078 · 87.0 · 5.1% 9.1% 8.5% F B O D 34

· SD Freddy Fermin vs Adams — 0.112 · 87.7 · 6.1% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 38

· SD Xander Bogaerts COOL vs Adams — 0.100 · 89.3 · 7.2% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 39

· — Jake Mccarthy vs Ray — 0.190 · 85.5 · 6.7% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 46

· — Tj Rumfield vs Ray — 0.156 · 84.2 · 6.3% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 42

· — Troy Johnston COOL vs Ray — 0.115 · 89.7 · 4.3% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 59.2% ← leak BRK 30.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Manny Machado R

12.1% 5.8% 10.0% C+ 60 —

Jackson Merrill L Edge

14.4% 12.2% 12.6% C 58 —

Ty France R

8.5% 11.2% 9.6% C 57 —

Fernando Tatis R

11.3% 13.8% 12.6% C 51 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

156

Xander Bogaerts R

6.6% 4.0% 5.6% D 39 —

163

Freddy Fermin R

3.4% 4.5% 4.0% D 38 —

187

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

3.0% 2.0% 2.8% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.2% usage) carries Adams's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.0% ← leak BRK 35.1% OFF 18.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Hunter Goodman R Edge

17.3% 14.9% 6.8% 15.0% C+ 68 —

Mickey Moniak L

8.7% 18.3% 1.7% 9.3% C 57 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Cole Carrigg S Edge

4.7% 2.7% 6.2% 4.7% D 48 —

Kyle Karros R Edge

9.3% 4.3% 10.0% 8.1% D 47 —

Jake Mccarthy L

6.5% 2.6% 6.8% 5.5% D 46 —

124

Tj Rumfield L

5.6% 3.1% 4.5% 4.7% D 42 —

144

Ezequiel Tovar R Edge

5.9% 7.7% 6.1% 6.6% D 41 —

182

Troy Johnston L

2.8% 2.2% 1.5% 2.3% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.0% usage) carries Ray's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Machado Merrill France Goodman Moniak Carrigg

Legend

attack side — vs Adams fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Manny Machado — · 60

Hunter Goodman — · 68

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.02× Wind 6 mph cross 80°F open

-1

↑

6 mph · cross

80°F

6:40p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

78°F

7:40p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

76°F

8:40p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

74°F

9:40p

↑

4 mph · out

72°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.12× 80°F, wind 6 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Mason Adams · RHP 2.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.23 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado 60 C+ — WARM 14 0.194 90.4 9.6% 26.7%vs RHP 397 18.1% 36.4% 31.6% 31

2 Jackson Merrill 58 C — HOT 28 0.189 91.4 10.9% 20.6%vs RHP 410 16.1% 16.7% 21.9% 40

3 Ty France 57 C — WARM 33 0.215 92.0 9.6% 25.4%vs RHP 390 15.1% 10.0% 20.4% 23

4 Fernando Tatis 51 C — WARM 53 0.173 93.0 10.8% 17.3%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 25.3% 35

5 Xander Bogaerts 39 D — COOL 156 0.100 89.3 7.2% 14.9%vs RHP 400 7.1% 0.0% 11.0% 32

6 Freddy Fermin 38 D — WARM 163 0.112 87.7 6.1% 6.2%vs RHP 382 2.0% 0.0% 12.0% 7

7 Jake Cronenworth 34 D — COOL 187 0.078 87.0 5.1% 9.1%vs RHP 382 3.0% 9.1% 8.5% 28

vs Robbie Ray · LHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 68 C+ — COOL 6 0.284 90.1 11.1% 35.5%vs LHP 408 23.6% 20.0% 26.2% 30

2 Mickey Moniak 57 C — COOL 34 0.242 89.4 8.9% 16.7%vs LHP 416 16.5% 14.3% 18.2% 15

3 Cole Carrigg 48 D — WARM 69 0.182 87.4 6.5% 11.1%vs LHP 405 10.9% 25.0% 14.7% 30

4 Kyle Karros 47 D — WARM 85 0.161 89.3 8.3% 11.1%vs LHP 418 10.8% 14.3% 10.9% 18

5 Jake Mccarthy 46 D — WARM 91 0.190 85.5 6.7% 18.2%vs LHP 415 10.0% 0.0% 10.8% 39

6 Tj Rumfield 42 D — · 124 0.156 84.2 6.3% 11.8%vs LHP 412 10.0% 0.0% 8.1% 35

7 Ezequiel Tovar 41 D — COOL 144 0.123 87.5 7.3% 5.1%vs LHP 404 7.9% 11.1% 8.5% 17

8 Troy Johnston 35 D — COOL 182 0.115 89.7 4.3% 8.0%vs LHP 411 2.0% 0.0% 6.4% 13

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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