TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ CHC

Wrigley Field is live · 1.12×

ATL @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 7:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.12× Wind 5 mph in 70°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

6:40p

-1 ↑

7:40p

+0 ↑

8:40p

+0 ↑

9:40p

+0 ↑

10:40p

the 8:40p window peaks +0

Best of game Matt Olson conv 21 · vs Imanaga ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 33 · vs Ritchie → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Shota Imanaga LHP · CHC

leak 96

1.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.88 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson — B ●●●○○

2 Drake Baldwin — C ●●○○○

3 Austin Riley — C ●●○○○

FADE JR Ritchie RHP · ATL

leak 86

1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.52 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong — B ●●●●●

2 Michael Busch — C ●●○○○

3 Alex Bregman — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 35.5% · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Ritchie Edge — 0.290 · 90.7 · 10.9% 30.8% 35.5% F B O B 76

· ATL Matt Olson vs Imanaga — 0.257 · 92.8 · 11.8% 15.4% 26.5% F B O B 71

· CHC Michael Busch vs Ritchie Edge — 0.156 · 88.4 · 9.1% 16.7% 15.5% F B O C 55

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Imanaga — 0.172 · 91.6 · 10.9% 15.4% 15.8% F B O C 59

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Ritchie — 0.185 · 88.0 · 7.1% 15.4% 14.5% F B O C 54

· ATL Austin Riley vs Imanaga Edge — 0.143 · 91.3 · 10.7% 15.4% 13.9% F B O C 54

· ATL Ronald Acuna vs Imanaga Edge — 0.187 · 90.0 · 10.7% 0.0% 25.0% F B O C 54

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Imanaga — 0.196 · 90.4 · 9.8% 0.0% 17.6% F B O C 53

· CHC Ian Happ vs Ritchie Edge — 0.191 · 89.5 · 10.1% 0.0% 15.6% F B O C 59

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Ritchie — 0.206 · 88.5 · 9.8% 0.0% 15.1% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs Imanaga Edge — 0.159 · 87.1 · 6.0% 8.3% 11.6% F B O D 48

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Imanaga — 0.152 · 90.4 · 8.2% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 48

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Imanaga — 0.121 · 87.7 · 7.2% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 45

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Imanaga Edge — 0.116 · 86.5 · 5.9% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 39

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Ritchie — 0.126 · 87.0 · 7.0% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 45

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Ritchie — 0.091 · 85.9 · 3.7% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 46.8% ← leak OFF 33.5% BRK 19.7% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Matt Olson L

16.1% 11.3% 12.5% 14.5% B 71 —

Neutral · 4

Drake Baldwin L

12.2% 6.8% 16.8% 12.6% C 59 —

Ronald Acuna R Edge

11.4% 10.8% 15.3% 12.1% C 54 —

Austin Riley R Edge

12.6% 7.1% 13.0% 12.0% C 54 —

Michael Harris L

6.5% 12.2% 12.8% 9.6% C 53 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.0% 2.3% 1.5% 3.8% D 48 —

Mike Yastrzemski L

7.4% 7.1% 6.6% 7.1% D 48 —

Dominic Smith L

5.6% 2.4% 7.1% 5.4% D 45 —

154

Mauricio Dubon R Edge

2.6% 3.9% 5.5% 3.6% D 39 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.8% usage) carries Imanaga's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 48.4% BRK 34.3% OFF 17.3% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

11.8% 17.4% 12.0% 13.4% B 76 —

Neutral · 4

Ian Happ S Edge

14.5% 13.6% 3.5% 11.4% C 59 —

Seiya Suzuki R

11.7% 9.0% 10.3% 10.6% C 59 —

Michael Busch L Edge

12.0% 5.4% 1.8% 9.1% C 55 —

Alex Bregman R

4.1% 8.0% 9.1% 5.6% C 54 —

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

101

Carson Kelly R

6.9% 3.4% 4.2% 5.6% D 45 —

173

Nico Hoerner R

1.7% 0.8% 1.8% 1.5% D 36 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Ritchie's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Baldwin Riley Crow-Armstrong Busch Bregman

Legend

attack side — vs Imanaga fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Pete Crow-Armstrong — · 76

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.12× Wind 5 mph in 70°F open

-1

↑

5 mph · in

71°F

6:40p

-1

↑

5 mph · in

71°F

7:40p

↑

4 mph · in

70°F

8:40p · peak

↑

4 mph · in

70°F

9:40p

↑

4 mph · in

70°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.12× 70°F, wind 5 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shota Imanaga · LHP 1.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.88 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 71 B — · 3 0.257 92.8 11.8% 23.4%vs LHP 406 22.9% 15.4% 26.5% 33

2 Drake Baldwin 59 C — COOL 21 0.172 91.6 10.9% 26.9%vs LHP 402 15.9% 15.4% 15.8% 37

3 Ronald Acuna 54 C — · 41 0.187 90.0 10.7% 20.0%vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 43

4 Austin Riley 54 C — · 45 0.143 91.3 10.7% 8.3%vs LHP 410 9.3% 15.4% 13.9% 28

5 Michael Harris 53 C — COOL 48 0.196 90.4 9.8% 25.0%vs LHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 17.6% 37

6 Ozzie Albies 48 D — COOL 73 0.159 87.1 6.0% 13.3%vs LHP 387 13.2% 8.3% 11.6% 37

7 Mike Yastrzemski 48 D — COOL 75 0.152 90.4 8.2% 0.0%vs LHP 391 7.3% 0.0% 10.4% 18

8 Dominic Smith 45 D — COOL 99 0.121 87.7 7.2% 0.0%vs LHP 392 7.8% 0.0% 10.0% 4

9 Mauricio Dubon 39 D — · 154 0.116 86.5 5.9% 9.1%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 37

vs JR Ritchie · RHP 1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.52 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 76 B — WARM 2 0.290 90.7 10.9% 28.4%vs RHP 397 23.0% 30.8% 35.5% 36

2 Ian Happ 59 C — WARM 22 0.191 89.5 10.1% 23.8%vs RHP 402 16.7% 0.0% 15.6% 20

3 Seiya Suzuki 59 C — · 23 0.206 88.5 9.8% 18.2%vs RHP 406 15.6% 0.0% 15.1% 33

4 Michael Busch 55 C — · 40 0.156 88.4 9.1% 12.8%vs RHP 403 13.2% 16.7% 15.5% 29

5 Alex Bregman 54 C — WARM 44 0.185 88.0 7.1% 18.6%vs RHP 389 12.8% 15.4% 14.5% 38

6 Carson Kelly 45 D — COOL 101 0.126 87.0 7.0% 9.3%vs RHP 403 8.3% 0.0% 8.5% 23

7 Nico Hoerner 36 D — WARM 173 0.091 85.9 3.7% 6.2%vs RHP 383 5.4% 0.0% 8.1% 44

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

13 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.