TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ MIN

Suppressed air · 0.95×

NYY @ MIN

Target Field · 1:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 6 mph in 65°F Roof open

Hourly window

-6 ↑

12:40p

-6 ↑

1:40p

-6 ↑

2:40p

-6 ↑

3:40p

-5 ↑

4:40p

conditions build late — the 4:40p window peaks -5

Best of game Josh Bell conv 21 · vs Rodón ⟷ Ben Rice conv 29 · vs Matthews → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Carlos Rodón LHP · NYY

leak 99

0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · leakiest side of this game

1 Josh Bell — D ●●●○○

2 Kody Clemens — C ●●●○○

3 Ryan Jeffers — D ●●○○○

FADE Zebby Matthews RHP · MIN

leak 96

1.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.94 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ben Rice — C+ ●●●●●

2 Luis García Jr. — C+ ●●●●○

3 Aaron Judge — C+ ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 14.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 27.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ COOL vs Matthews Edge — 0.265 · 92.0 · 12.4% 27.3% 31.3% F B O C+ 68

· NYY Luis García Jr. vs Matthews Edge — 0.259 · 91.7 · 11.7% 25.0% 29.7% F B O C+ 63

· NYY Aaron Judge COOL vs Matthews — 0.272 · 94.0 · 14.9% 16.7% 34.0% F B O C+ 68

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Rodón — 0.228 · 92.2 · 8.8% 16.7% 21.7% F B O C 53

· NYY Spencer Jones COOL vs Matthews Edge — 0.183 · 94.1 · 12.9% 10.0% 11.9% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· NYY Cody Bellinger vs Matthews Edge — 0.166 · 89.1 · 8.3% 33.3% 15.8% F B O D 49

· MIN Josh Bell HOT vs Rodón Edge — 0.171 · 89.8 · 8.1% 27.3% 14.8% F B O D 45

· NYY Austin Wells vs Matthews Edge — 0.134 · 89.4 · 8.5% 18.2% 14.5% F B O D 44

· NYY Anthony Volpe HOT vs Matthews — 0.092 · 88.0 · 6.8% 20.0% 12.1% F B O D 37

· MIN Ryan Jeffers vs Rodón Edge — 0.220 · 88.9 · 8.6% 11.1% 11.3% F B O D 47

· NYY George Lombard Jr. COOL vs Matthews — 0.127 · 85.8 · 8.3% 11.1% 9.3% F B O D 41

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Matthews Edge — 0.139 · 90.4 · 9.8% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 41

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Rodón Edge — 0.161 · 89.8 · 8.6% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 41

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Rodón Edge — 0.090 · 87.0 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 28

· MIN Ryan Kreidler vs Rodón Edge — 0.146 · 88.2 · 7.1% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 36

· MIN Luke Keaschall COOL vs Rodón Edge — 0.111 · 85.5 · 4.7% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.2% ← leak BRK 33.7% OFF 13.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Aaron Judge R

19.7% 22.2% 21.4% 20.9% C+ 68 —

Ben Rice L Edge

16.6% 12.3% 10.4% 14.3% C+ 68 —

Luis García Jr. L Edge

13.1% 17.9% 6.7% 12.8% C+ 63 —

Spencer Jones L Edge

21.6% 2.5% 15.8% 15.0% C 52 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Cody Bellinger L Edge

4.3% 11.2% 7.9% 6.5% D 49 —

106

Austin Wells L Edge

9.8% 4.1% 0.0% 6.8% D 44 —

137

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

11.4% 3.7% 8.8% 9.0% D 41 —

140

George Lombard Jr. R

4.0% 13.6% 0.0% 6.4% D 41 —

167

Anthony Volpe R

5.6% 2.0% 6.7% 4.3% D 37 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.2% usage) carries Matthews's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 59.2% BRK 24.8% OFF 14.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kody Clemens L

9.6% 18.3% 11.3% 11.8% C 53 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Ryan Jeffers R Edge

12.6% 9.7% 6.7% 11.1% D 47 —

Josh Bell S Edge

10.8% 11.9% 5.7% 10.0% D 45 —

145

Royce Lewis R Edge

13.1% 6.7% 11.4% 11.1% D 41 —

176

Ryan Kreidler R Edge

9.2% 5.4% 6.2% 7.6% D 36 —

213

Luke Keaschall R Edge

4.4% 2.6% 0.0% 3.4% D 29 —

214

Austin Martin R Edge

3.8% 2.1% 0.0% 3.1% D 28 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Rodón's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Judge Rice Jr. Bellinger Wells Volpe Clemens Bell

Legend

attack side — vs Rodón fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Ben Rice — · 68

Luis García Jr. — · 63

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 12:40p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 6 mph in 65°F open

-6

↑

5 mph · in

74°F

12:40p

-6

↑

5 mph · in

74°F

1:40p

-6

↑

5 mph · in

74°F

2:40p

-6

↑

5 mph · in

74°F

3:40p

-5

↑

4 mph · in

73°F

4:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.95× 65°F, wind 6 mph SE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Zebby Matthews · RHP 1.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.94 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Aaron Judge 68 C+ — COOL 4 0.272 94.0 14.9% 32.4%vs RHP 404 22.4% 16.7% 34.0% 10

2 Ben Rice ✶ 68 C+ — COOL 5 0.265 92.0 12.4% 31.1%vs RHP 393 23.9% 27.3% 31.3% 30

3 Luis García Jr. 63 C+ — WARM 10 0.259 91.7 11.7% 34.2%vs RHP 398 14.5% 25.0% 29.7% 26

4 Spencer Jones 52 C — COOL 52 0.183 94.1 12.9% 17.1%vs RHP 395 12.5% 10.0% 11.9% 22

5 Cody Bellinger 49 D — WARM 64 0.166 89.1 8.3% 12.8%vs RHP 376 11.7% 33.3% 15.8% 39

6 Austin Wells 44 D — · 106 0.134 89.4 8.5% 16.4%vs RHP 380 9.2% 18.2% 14.5% 19

7 Ryan Mcmahon 41 D — COOL 137 0.139 90.4 9.8% 17.2%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 24

8 George Lombard Jr. 41 D — COOL 140 0.127 85.8 8.3% 18.8%vs RHP 366 11.1% 11.1% 9.3% 22

9 Anthony Volpe 37 D — HOT 167 0.092 88.0 6.8% 6.7%vs RHP 381 3.4% 20.0% 12.1% 13

vs Carlos Rodón · LHP 0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 53 C — COOL 47 0.228 92.2 8.8% 18.5%vs LHP 390 18.3% 16.7% 21.7% 32

2 Ryan Jeffers 47 D — · 84 0.220 88.9 8.6% 14.3%vs LHP 397 15.2% 11.1% 11.3% 27

3 Josh Bell 45 D — HOT 96 0.171 89.8 8.1% 14.6%vs LHP 407 12.4% 27.3% 14.8% 28

4 Royce Lewis 41 D — COOL 145 0.161 89.8 8.6% 15.4%vs LHP 402 13.2% 0.0% 8.4% 25

5 Ryan Kreidler 36 D — WARM 176 0.146 88.2 7.1% 13.3%vs LHP 409 3.8% 0.0% 7.4% 8

6 Luke Keaschall 29 D — COOL 213 0.111 85.5 4.7% 2.6%vs LHP 378 6.8% 0.0% 5.5% 35

7 Austin Martin 28 D — COOL 214 0.090 87.0 4.5% 7.4%vs LHP 394 2.9% 0.0% 7.5% 3

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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