TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ TB

Playable air · 1.06×

ATH @ TB

Tropicana Field · 6:40p · 11 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 33 · vs Basso ⟷ Zack Gelof conv 29 · vs Martinez → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Brady Basso LHP · ATH

leak 55

0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.59 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero — C+ ●●●●●

2 Nick Fortes — D ●●○○○

3 Yandy Diaz — D ●○○○○

FADE Nick Martinez RHP · TB

leak 52

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.47 · stingy — thin edge

1 Zack Gelof — C ●●●●●

2 Lawrence Butler — D ●●●○○

3 Henry Bolte — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 12.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Basso Edge — 0.251 · 92.8 · 8.9% 33.3% 32.4% F B O C+ 64

· ATH Zack Gelof HOT vs Martinez — 0.209 · 89.3 · 8.0% 33.3% 25.5% F B O C 57

· ATH Shea Langeliers COOL vs Martinez — 0.231 · 91.9 · 10.0% 0.0% 20.3% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Martinez Edge — 0.157 · 89.7 · 7.5% 25.0% 18.3% F B O D 48

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Martinez — 0.123 · 90.8 · 7.1% 25.0% 13.4% F B O D 45

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Basso Edge — 0.108 · 85.3 · 3.5% 20.0% 12.1% F B O D 34

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Martinez Edge — 0.103 · 86.5 · 3.5% 14.3% 7.8% F B O D 34

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Basso Edge — 0.162 · 91.1 · 6.6% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 40

· TB Jonny Deluca COOL vs Basso Edge — 0.152 · 85.4 · 4.4% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 37

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Martinez Edge — 0.138 · 88.3 · 6.4% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 40

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Basso — 0.048 · 83.6 · — 0.0% 5.0% F B O D 18

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 65.4% ← leak OFF 26.3% BRK 8.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Shea Langeliers R

16.4% 4.8% 15.6% 14.4% C 58 —

Zack Gelof R

10.5% 14.3% 6.2% 9.4% C 57 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Lawrence Butler L Edge

8.7% 4.6% 10.0% 8.1% D 48 —

Henry Bolte R

7.7% 3.6% 9.1% 7.6% D 45 —

149

Carlos Cortes L Edge

7.7% 6.2% 2.9% 6.1% D 40 —

193

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

1.3% 2.5% 2.4% 1.8% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.4% usage) carries Martinez's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 62.4% ← leak BRK 34.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R Edge

15.5% 10.8% 12.9% C+ 64 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

147

Yandy Diaz R Edge

5.6% 10.9% 7.2% D 40 —

166

Jonny Deluca R Edge

4.0% 3.2% 3.3% D 37 —

186

Nick Fortes R Edge

2.6% 1.7% 2.1% D 34 —

225

Chandler Simpson L

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 18 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.4% usage) carries Basso's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Gelof Butler Bolte Caminero Fortes

Legend

attack side — vs Basso fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Junior Caminero — · 64

Zack Gelof — · 57

Lawrence Butler — · 48

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.06× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.06× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nick Martinez · RHP 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.47 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shea Langeliers 58 C — COOL 30 0.231 91.9 10.0% 23.3%vs RHP 417 20.0% 0.0% 20.3% 4

2 Zack Gelof 57 C — HOT 32 0.209 89.3 8.0% 25.5%vs RHP 398 20.3% 33.3% 25.5% 33

3 Lawrence Butler 48 D — WARM 67 0.157 89.7 7.5% 23.5%vs RHP 406 9.9% 25.0% 18.3% 30

4 Henry Bolte 45 D — WARM 97 0.123 90.8 7.1% 11.5%vs RHP 397 11.4% 25.0% 13.4% 25

5 Carlos Cortes 40 D — COOL 149 0.138 88.3 6.4% 16.4%vs RHP 400 4.8% 0.0% 8.7% 22

6 Jeff Mcneil 34 D — COOL 193 0.103 86.5 3.5% 11.8%vs RHP 380 6.1% 14.3% 7.8% 39

vs Brady Basso · LHP 0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.59 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 64 C+ — · 9 0.251 92.8 8.9% 33.3%vs LHP 415 25.9% 33.3% 32.4% 35

2 Yandy Diaz 40 D — · 147 0.162 91.1 6.6% 21.6%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 42

3 Jonny Deluca 37 D — COOL 166 0.152 85.4 4.4% 8.7%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 21

4 Nick Fortes 34 D — COOL 186 0.108 85.3 3.5% 5.0%vs LHP 390 5.3% 20.0% 12.1% 9

5 Chandler Simpson 18 D — COOL 225 0.048 83.6 — 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 42

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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