TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ CLE

Suppressed air · 0.95×

CWS @ CLE

Progressive Field · 1:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 7 mph in 78°F Roof open

Hourly window

-9 ↑

1:10p

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2:10p

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3:10p

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4:10p

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5:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · -9 FIT

Best of game Travis Bazzana conv 26 · vs Kay ⟷ Kyle Teel conv 24 · vs Messick → edge: Colson Montgomery

ATTACK Anthony Kay LHP · CWS

leak 89

1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · leakiest side of this game

1 Travis Bazzana — D ●●●●○

2 Brayan Rocchio — D ●●●○○

3 Jo Adell — D ●●○○○

FADE Parker Messick LHP · CLE

leak 67

0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Teel — D ●●●●○

2 Colson Montgomery — C ●●●○○

3 Miguel Vargas — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Colson Montgomery: 12.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Colson Montgomery ✶ COOL vs Messick — 0.217 · 88.8 · 8.0% 16.7% 25.7% F B O C 51

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Messick Edge — 0.226 · 90.2 · 8.3% 16.7% 17.5% F B O C 51

· CWS Randal Grichuk vs Messick Edge — 0.280 · 91.6 · 7.5% 0.0% 27.5% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Kay — 0.147 · 87.9 · 6.2% 41.7% 11.3% F B O D 44

· CWS Kyle Teel vs Messick — 0.169 · 84.1 · 8.4% 28.6% 18.8% F B O D 43

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Kay Edge — 0.127 · 86.9 · 4.9% 23.1% 13.2% F B O D 38

· CLE Jo Adell COOL vs Kay Edge — 0.160 · 90.1 · 8.5% 15.4% 12.3% F B O D 47

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Messick Edge — 0.130 · 87.3 · 4.8% 7.7% 13.4% F B O D 32

· CLE David Fry COOL vs Kay Edge — 0.161 · 85.9 · 7.2% 0.0% 17.2% F B O D 42

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Kay — 0.067 · 83.6 · 1.8% 7.1% 5.5% F B O D 24

· CWS Brenton Doyle vs Messick Edge — 0.086 · 88.2 · 5.6% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 30

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Messick — 0.182 · 87.5 · 5.4% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 37

· CLE Angel Genao COOL vs Kay Edge — 0.091 · 91.1 · 5.9% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 35

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Kay Edge — 0.132 · 88.6 · 5.7% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 34

· CLE Austin Hedges COOL vs Kay Edge — 0.119 · 86.0 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 36

· CWS Luisangel Acuna vs Messick Edge — 0.036 · 88.4 · 4.0% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 22

· CLE Petey Halpin COOL vs Kay — 0.095 · 85.6 · 6.5% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 61.4% ← leak OFF 23.4% BRK 15.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Colson Montgomery L

13.2% 14.3% 9.7% 12.6% C 51 —

Miguel Vargas R Edge

15.0% 12.8% 10.4% 13.4% C 51 —

Randal Grichuk R Edge

7.4% 25.0% 10.8% 11.0% C 50 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

116

Kyle Teel L

21.9% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% D 43 —

169

Tristan Peters L

7.7% 1.7% 3.9% 5.7% D 37 —

196

Chase Meidroth R Edge

4.3% 4.8% 4.8% 4.5% D 32 —

205

Brenton Doyle R Edge

4.8% 9.5% 7.1% 6.2% D 30 —

223

Luisangel Acuna R Edge

3.3% 0.0% 4.8% 3.2% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.4% usage) carries Messick's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 57.5% ← leak BRK 28.4% OFF 14.1% Overall Score

Long shots · 9 — below the fade line

Jo Adell R Edge

8.7% 7.9% 10.2% 8.7% D 47 —

107

Travis Bazzana L

5.5% 2.8% 2.3% 4.4% D 44 —

125

David Fry R Edge

9.0% 4.0% 0.0% 6.6% D 42 —

161

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.8% 3.7% 0.9% 3.0% D 38 —

175

Austin Hedges R Edge

3.7% 2.3% 14.3% 4.2% D 36 —

180

Angel Genao S Edge

4.8% 5.6% 0.0% 4.3% D 35 —

185

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 34 —

192

Petey Halpin L

4.2% 6.7% 7.4% 5.4% D 34 —

221

Steven Kwan L

0.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 24 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.5% usage) carries Kay's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Montgomery Vargas Grichuk Teel Adell Bazzana Rocchio

Legend

attack side — vs Kay fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kyle Teel — · 43

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 7 mph in 78°F open

-9

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10 mph · in

82°F

1:10p · peak

-9

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10 mph · in

82°F

2:10p

-9

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10 mph · in

82°F

3:10p

-9

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10 mph · in

82°F

4:10p

-9

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10 mph · in

81°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.95× 78°F, wind 7 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Parker Messick · LHP 0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Colson Montgomery ✶ 51 C — COOL 54 0.217 88.8 8.0% 31.2%vs LHP 397 21.4% 16.7% 25.7% 20

2 Miguel Vargas 51 C — COOL 56 0.226 90.2 8.3% 27.9%vs LHP 392 19.7% 16.7% 17.5% 36

3 Randal Grichuk 50 C — WARM 58 0.280 91.6 7.5% 24.3%vs LHP 387 13.2% 0.0% 27.5% 16

4 Kyle Teel 43 D — WARM 116 0.169 84.1 8.4% 25.0% 399 17.6% 28.6% 18.8% 14

5 Tristan Peters 37 D — · 169 0.182 87.5 5.4% 9.1%vs LHP 377 10.7% 0.0% 9.7% 31

6 Chase Meidroth 32 D — WARM 196 0.130 87.3 4.8% 23.1%vs LHP 382 7.6% 7.7% 13.4% 26

7 Brenton Doyle 30 D — WARM 205 0.086 88.2 5.6% 16.7%vs LHP 405 5.2% 0.0% 10.0% 2

8 Luisangel Acuna 22 D — WARM 223 0.036 88.4 4.0% 0.0%vs LHP 416 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 2

vs Anthony Kay · LHP 1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jo Adell 47 D — COOL 81 0.160 90.1 8.5% 32.4%vs LHP 416 14.0% 15.4% 12.3% 35

2 Travis Bazzana 44 D — WARM 107 0.147 87.9 6.2% 4.2%vs LHP 394 12.6% 41.7% 11.3% 30

3 David Fry 42 D — COOL 125 0.161 85.9 7.2% 21.1%vs LHP 384 7.1% 0.0% 17.2% 13

4 Brayan Rocchio 38 D — COOL 161 0.127 86.9 4.9% 10.8%vs LHP 384 8.5% 23.1% 13.2% 34

5 Austin Hedges 36 D — COOL 175 0.119 86.0 5.8% 9.1%vs LHP 387 6.2% 0.0% 7.6% 12

6 Angel Genao 35 D — COOL 180 0.091 91.1 5.9% 15.4% 394 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 27

7 Jose Ramirez 34 D — COOL 185 0.132 88.6 5.7% 15.2%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 38

8 Petey Halpin 34 D — COOL 192 0.095 85.6 6.5% 0.0%vs LHP 410 2.8% 0.0% 5.5% 11

9 Steven Kwan 24 D — COOL 221 0.067 83.6 1.8% 0.0%vs LHP 367 2.2% 7.1% 5.5% 46

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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