TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.15×

PHI @ WSH

Nationals Park · 6:45p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.15× Wind 5 mph out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

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6:45p

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7:45p

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8:45p

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9:45p

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the 6:45p window peaks +10

Best of game Cj Abrams conv 23 · vs Wheeler ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 40 · vs Proxy → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Zack Wheeler RHP · PHI

leak 92

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cj Abrams — C+ ●●●●○

2 Keibert Ruiz — D ●●○○○

3 James Wood — C+ ●●○○○

FADE WSH Bullpen Proxy · WSH

leak 66

1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber — A ●●●●●

2 Trea Turner — C ●●○○○

3 Bryce Harper — C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 37.8% · 14D pace 41.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs Proxy — 0.279 · 92.4 · 16.6% 41.7% 37.8% F B O A 84

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Wheeler Edge — 0.230 · 89.7 · 8.2% 25.0% 21.0% F B O C+ 60

· PHI Trea Turner vs Proxy — 0.144 · 88.3 · 6.5% 16.7% 12.1% F B O C 50

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Proxy — 0.229 · 90.5 · 11.0% 8.3% 19.2% F B O C+ 65

· WSH James Wood COOL vs Wheeler Edge — 0.254 · 95.1 · 11.6% 0.0% 24.2% F B O C+ 67

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Wheeler Edge — 0.182 · 88.8 · 7.9% 0.0% 14.1% F B O C 50

· PHI Brandon Marsh vs Proxy — 0.148 · 89.2 · 8.1% 0.0% 11.3% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Wheeler Edge — 0.172 · 88.0 · 5.8% 14.3% 15.2% F B O D 47

· PHI Justin Crawford vs Proxy — 0.088 · 87.2 · 1.5% 12.5% 8.5% F B O D 35

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Wheeler — 0.149 · 90.3 · 7.8% 10.0% 10.6% F B O D 48

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Proxy — 0.142 · 90.6 · 6.1% 10.0% 10.3% F B O D 48

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Wheeler — 0.140 · 87.6 · 6.2% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 42

· WSH Nasim Nunez vs Wheeler Edge — 0.034 · 85.1 · 2.4% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 26

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Proxy — 0.135 · 89.8 · 5.8% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 43

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Proxy — 0.141 · 89.2 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 45

· WSH Jorbit Vivas COOL vs Wheeler Edge — 0.091 · 82.8 · 4.7% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for WSH Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 61.8% ← leak BRK 22.9% OFF 15.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

James Wood L Edge

19.4% 27.4% 9.3% 20.1% C+ 67 —

Cj Abrams L Edge

10.4% 9.6% 10.3% 10.1% C+ 60 —

Daylen Lile L Edge

9.5% 13.6% 3.8% 9.4% C 50 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Dylan Crews R

7.0% 14.5% 8.3% 8.7% D 48 —

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

7.0% 4.0% 1.6% 5.0% D 47 —

133

Jacob Young R

7.1% 4.2% 2.7% 5.8% D 42 —

184

Jorbit Vivas L Edge

3.4% 3.6% 2.6% 3.3% D 35 —

219

Nasim Nunez S Edge

1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% D 26 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.8% usage) carries Wheeler's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Turner Abrams Ruiz

Legend

attack side — vs Wheeler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kyle Schwarber — · 84

Cj Abrams — · 60

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 1.15× Wind 5 mph out 77°F open

+10

↑

5 mph · out

83°F

6:45p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

82°F

7:45p

+10

↑

5 mph · out

81°F

8:45p

+10

↑

5 mph · out

79°F

9:45p

+10

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5 mph · out

77°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.15× 77°F, wind 5 mph S (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs WSH Bullpen Proxy 1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 84 A — · 1 0.279 92.4 16.6% 31.4% 403 24.1% 41.7% 37.8% 30

2 Bryce Harper 65 C+ — · 11 0.229 90.5 11.0% 23.3% 403 17.8% 8.3% 19.2% 25

3 Trea Turner 50 C — · 89 0.144 88.3 6.5% 12.2% 390 12.7% 16.7% 12.1% 35

4 Brandon Marsh 50 C — · 90 0.148 89.2 8.1% 15.2% 391 10.6% 0.0% 11.3% 19

5 Alec Bohm 48 D — WARM 102 0.142 90.6 6.1% 11.9% 394 10.1% 10.0% 10.3% 26

6 Bryson Stott 45 D — · 135 0.141 89.2 5.9% 7.4% 393 7.2% 0.0% 9.5% 25

7 J.T. Realmuto 43 D — WARM 152 0.135 89.8 5.8% 12.0% 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 20

8 Justin Crawford 35 D — WARM 201 0.088 87.2 1.5% 4.7% 395 2.8% 12.5% 8.5% 21

vs Zack Wheeler · RHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood 67 C+ — COOL 7 0.254 95.1 11.6% 35.6%vs RHP 413 23.6% 0.0% 24.2% 25

2 Cj Abrams 60 C+ — WARM 17 0.230 89.7 8.2% 27.1%vs RHP 396 30.8% 25.0% 21.0% 27

3 Daylen Lile 50 C — WARM 62 0.182 88.8 7.9% 13.5%vs RHP 400 11.3% 0.0% 14.1% 24

4 Dylan Crews 48 D — · 76 0.149 90.3 7.8% 10.9%vs RHP 407 13.3% 10.0% 10.6% 27

5 Keibert Ruiz 47 D — WARM 88 0.172 88.0 5.8% 10.6%vs RHP 380 11.0% 14.3% 15.2% 17

6 Jacob Young 42 D — COOL 133 0.140 87.6 6.2% 11.9%vs RHP 399 6.4% 0.0% 10.1% 16

7 Jorbit Vivas 35 D — COOL 184 0.091 82.8 4.7% 6.0%vs RHP 392 2.3% 0.0% 9.0% 12

8 Nasim Nunez 26 D — WARM 219 0.034 85.1 2.4% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 7

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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