TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ STL

Suppressed air · 0.97×

SF @ STL

Busch Stadium · 1:15p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.81× Wind 3 mph out 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

12:15p

-3 ↑

1:15p

-3 ↑

2:15p

-3 ↑

3:15p

-3 ↑

4:15p

conditions hold steady across the window · -3 FIT

Best of game Andrew Knizner conv 20 · vs Liberatore ⟷ Alec Burleson conv 13 · vs Molina → edge: Bryce Eldridge

ATTACK Matthew Liberatore LHP · STL

leak 95

1.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.78 · leakiest side of this game

1 Andrew Knizner — D ●●●○○

2 Bryce Eldridge — D ●●○○○

3 Turner Hill — D ●●○○○

FADE Anthony Molina RHP · SF

leak 62

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · stingy — thin edge

1 Alec Burleson — D ●●○○○

2 Nolan Gorman — D ●○○○○

3 Jordan Walker — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Bryce Eldridge: Match 11.9% · 14D pace 15.4% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· SF Andrew Knizner COOL vs Liberatore Edge — 0.187 · 86.0 · 8.6% 25.0% 14.3% F B O D 41

· SF Bryce Eldridge ✶ COOL vs Liberatore — 0.185 · 92.7 · 10.2% 15.4% 11.9% F B O D 48

· SF Turner Hill COOL vs Liberatore — 0.079 · 87.0 · 5.4% 20.0% 5.7% F B O D 33

· STL Alec Burleson COOL vs Molina Edge — 0.183 · 91.8 · 8.9% 15.4% 9.8% F B O D 43

· SF Christian Koss COOL vs Liberatore Edge — 0.102 · 84.0 · 6.6% 10.0% 14.9% F B O D 33

· SF Shay Whitcomb COOL vs Liberatore Edge — 0.172 · 85.7 · 10.7% 14.3% 8.9% F B O D 41

· STL Nolan Gorman vs Molina Edge — 0.130 · 89.3 · 8.7% 9.1% 6.4% F B O D 35

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Molina — 0.206 · 92.4 · 9.7% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 46

· STL Joshua Báez COOL vs Molina — 0.291 · 92.4 · 9.6% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 43

· SF Jonah Cox COOL vs Liberatore Edge — 0.162 · 88.2 · 8.0% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 42

· STL Pedro Pages COOL vs Molina — 0.099 · 86.7 · 5.7% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 26

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Molina — 0.129 · 89.9 · 7.4% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 30

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Liberatore — 0.123 · 87.7 · 4.6% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 29

· STL Thomas Saggese vs Molina — 0.149 · 90.4 · 7.9% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 34

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Molina Edge — 0.121 · 85.7 · 6.5% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 44.1% FB 42.2% OFF 13.0% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Bryce Eldridge L

11.7% 10.9% 12.8% 11.4% D 48 —

134

Jonah Cox R Edge

7.1% 8.5% 0.0% 7.0% D 42 —

138

Andrew Knizner R Edge

14.3% 9.5% 0.0% 8.1% D 41 —

142

Shay Whitcomb R Edge

10.5% 15.8% 0.0% 12.7% D 41 —

194

Christian Koss R Edge

6.7% 3.5% 10.0% 4.8% D 33 —

195

Turner Hill L

0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 3.2% D 33 —

210

Jung Hoo Lee L

2.1% 2.6% 2.0% 2.4% D 29 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Liberatore's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.6% BRK 28.1% OFF 22.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Jordan Walker R

13.5% 10.5% 17.5% 12.8% D 46 —

120

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.6% 9.6% 10.3% 10.8% D 43 —

123

Joshua Báez R

8.6% 20.0% 11.1% 12.5% D 43 —

183

Nolan Gorman L Edge

14.9% 2.9% 7.1% 10.4% D 35 —

190

Thomas Saggese R

9.6% 6.5% 11.1% 8.7% D 34 —

204

Jj Wetherholt

10.4% 3.8% 1.8% 7.5% D 30 —

208

Nathan Church L Edge

6.1% 6.0% 4.9% 5.8% D 30 —

217

Pedro Pages R

6.8% 2.4% 0.0% 4.5% D 26 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Molina's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Eldridge Knizner

Legend

attack side — vs Liberatore fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 12:15p · roof open

Park 0.81× Wind 3 mph out 86°F open

-3

↑

1 mph · slight_out

92°F

12:15p · peak

-3

↑

1 mph · slight_out

92°F

1:15p

-3

↑

1 mph · slight_out

92°F

2:15p

-3

↑

1 mph · slight_out

92°F

3:15p

-3

↑

1 mph · out

92°F

4:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.97× 86°F, wind 3 mph SW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Matthew Liberatore · LHP 1.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.78 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Bryce Eldridge ✶ 48 D — COOL 72 0.185 92.7 10.2% 26.1%vs LHP 398 18.3% 15.4% 11.9% 30

2 Jonah Cox 42 D — COOL 134 0.162 88.2 8.0% 25.0%vs LHP 408 20.0% 0.0% 9.8% 33

3 Andrew Knizner 41 D — COOL 138 0.187 86.0 8.6% 14.3%vs LHP 402 25.0% 25.0% 14.3% 14

4 Shay Whitcomb 41 D — COOL 142 0.172 85.7 10.7% 12.5%vs LHP 408 10.0% 14.3% 8.9% 30

5 Christian Koss 33 D — COOL 194 0.102 84.0 6.6% 36.4%vs LHP 372 3.8% 10.0% 14.9% 33

6 Turner Hill 33 D — COOL 195 0.079 87.0 5.4% 0.0% 0 20.0% 20.0% 5.7% 28

7 Jung Hoo Lee 29 D — WARM 210 0.123 87.7 4.6% 7.7%vs LHP 382 5.1% 0.0% 6.6% 35

vs Anthony Molina · RHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 46 D — COOL 93 0.206 92.4 9.7% 25.3%vs RHP 406 16.8% 0.0% 11.5% 26

2 Alec Burleson 43 D — COOL 120 0.183 91.8 8.9% 21.8%vs RHP 406 14.5% 15.4% 9.8% 33

3 Joshua Báez 43 D — COOL 123 0.291 92.4 9.6% 11.1%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 29

4 Nolan Gorman 35 D — WARM 183 0.130 89.3 8.7% 14.5%vs RHP 407 9.3% 9.1% 6.4% 21

5 Thomas Saggese 34 D — WARM 190 0.149 90.4 7.9% 5.9%vs RHP 399 5.0% 0.0% 6.4% 35

6 Jj Wetherholt 30 D — · 204 0.129 89.9 7.4% 15.9%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 0

7 Nathan Church 30 D — COOL 208 0.121 85.7 6.5% 13.3%vs RHP 386 7.3% 0.0% 6.3% 36

8 Pedro Pages 26 D — COOL 217 0.099 86.7 5.7% 18.2%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 2

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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