TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ LAA

Suppressed air · 0.82×

SEA @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 9:38p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.82× Wind 5 mph out 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

6:38p

-1 ↑

7:38p

-2 ↑

8:38p

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9:38p

-4 ↑

10:38p

best window is early — 6:38p at +0

Best of game Randy Arozarena conv 19 · vs Kikuchi ⟷ Zach Neto conv 22 · vs Kirby → edge: Zach Neto

ATTACK Yusei Kikuchi LHP · LAA

leak 87

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · leakiest side of this game

1 Randy Arozarena — D ●●●○○

2 Cal Raleigh — D ●●●○○

3 Dominic Canzone — D ●●○○○

FADE George Kirby RHP · SEA

leak 76

1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · stingy — thin edge

1 Zach Neto — D ●●●○○

2 Josh Lowe — D ●●●○○

3 Vaughn Grissom — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Zach Neto: 11.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· LAA Zach Neto ✶ vs Kirby — 0.202 · 89.7 · 8.9% 25.0% 18.5% F B O D 47

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Kikuchi Edge — 0.201 · 90.8 · 8.2% 15.4% 21.9% F B O D 47

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Kirby Edge — 0.148 · 88.6 · 7.5% 25.0% 10.0% F B O D 37

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Kikuchi Edge — 0.190 · 90.0 · 11.2% 16.7% 17.2% F B O D 48

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Kirby — 0.143 · 87.7 · 6.9% 16.7% 10.7% F B O D 35

· SEA Dominic Canzone vs Kikuchi — 0.222 · 91.2 · 10.2% 7.7% 12.3% F B O D 48

· LAA Mike Trout vs Kirby — 0.185 · 90.1 · 10.4% 8.3% 10.4% F B O D 44

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Kikuchi Edge — 0.152 · 90.3 · 8.8% 7.7% 8.7% F B O D 40

· SEA Cole Young vs Kikuchi — 0.141 · 88.3 · 6.7% 9.1% 6.1% F B O D 34

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Kikuchi — 0.129 · 87.7 · 7.1% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 30

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Kirby — 0.113 · 87.3 · 6.6% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 29

· LAA Wade Meckler COOL vs Kirby Edge — 0.091 · 87.0 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 25

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Kikuchi — 0.092 · 87.1 · 6.2% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.1% BRK 34.5% OFF 17.4% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Cal Raleigh S Edge

15.0% 18.0% 10.3% 14.7% D 48 —

Dominic Canzone L

14.0% 11.4% 8.4% 12.1% D 48 —

Randy Arozarena R Edge

8.1% 7.2% 7.5% 7.7% D 47 —

150

Julio Rodríguez R Edge

9.7% 7.0% 10.2% 9.0% D 40 —

191

Cole Young L

4.7% 8.8% 2.6% 5.2% D 34 —

203

J.P. Crawford L

4.7% 7.6% 10.0% 5.9% D 30 —

216

Josh Naylor L

4.0% 7.9% 1.3% 4.4% D 27 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Kikuchi's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.6% ← leak BRK 38.2% OFF 8.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Zach Neto R

14.1% 8.3% 7.8% 11.6% D 47 —

109

Mike Trout R

15.5% 20.3% 9.4% 15.8% D 44 —

168

Josh Lowe L Edge

11.9% 4.3% 4.7% 8.4% D 37 —

179

Vaughn Grissom R

8.9% 5.8% 2.2% 6.9% D 35 —

212

Oswald Peraza R

5.7% 6.0% 10.0% 6.4% D 29 —

220

Wade Meckler L Edge

2.5% 7.7% 0.0% 3.0% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.6% usage) carries Kirby's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Raleigh Arozarena Neto Lowe Grissom

Legend

attack side — vs Kikuchi fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Zach Neto — · 47

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 6:38p · roof open

Park 0.82× Wind 5 mph out 74°F open

↑

5 mph · out

74°F

6:38p · peak

-1

↑

4 mph · out

72°F

7:38p

-2

↑

3 mph · out

71°F

8:38p

-3

↑

3 mph · out

70°F

9:38p

-4

↑

2 mph · out

69°F

10:38p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.82× 74°F, wind 5 mph SW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Yusei Kikuchi · LHP 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cal Raleigh 48 D — WARM 68 0.190 90.0 11.2% 27.6%vs LHP 383 16.1% 16.7% 17.2% 28

2 Dominic Canzone 48 D — · 71 0.222 91.2 10.2% 26.3%vs LHP 403 15.1% 7.7% 12.3% 39

3 Randy Arozarena 47 D — · 79 0.201 90.8 8.2% 30.3%vs LHP 387 15.7% 15.4% 21.9% 36

4 Julio Rodríguez 40 D — WARM 150 0.152 90.3 8.8% 19.1%vs LHP 404 14.8% 7.7% 8.7% 38

5 Cole Young 34 D — WARM 191 0.141 88.3 6.7% 7.9%vs LHP 384 11.2% 9.1% 6.1% 32

6 J.P. Crawford 30 D — COOL 203 0.129 87.7 7.1% 15.4%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 40

7 Josh Naylor 27 D — COOL 216 0.092 87.1 6.2% 9.7%vs LHP 392 5.5% 0.0% 5.9% 45

vs George Kirby · RHP 1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.09 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto ✶ 47 D — · 80 0.202 89.7 8.9% 19.1%vs RHP 404 16.8% 25.0% 18.5% 30

2 Mike Trout 44 D — WARM 109 0.185 90.1 10.4% 22.2%vs RHP 409 13.2% 8.3% 10.4% 23

3 Josh Lowe 37 D — WARM 168 0.148 88.6 7.5% 18.6%vs RHP 394 10.6% 25.0% 10.0% 7

4 Vaughn Grissom 35 D — COOL 179 0.143 87.7 6.9% 20.8%vs RHP 388 9.5% 16.7% 10.7% 30

5 Oswald Peraza 29 D — WARM 212 0.113 87.3 6.6% 8.0%vs RHP 386 4.8% 0.0% 6.1% 8

6 Wade Meckler 25 D — COOL 220 0.091 87.0 4.5% 8.6%vs RHP 396 5.3% 0.0% 6.1% 28

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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