TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.34×

KC @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 8:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.12× Wind 5 mph out 87°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+9 ↑

7:10p

+9 ↑

8:10p

+8 ↑

9:10p

+7 ↑

10:10p

+7 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +9

Best of game Carter Jensen conv 32 · vs Javier ⟷ Cam Smith conv 27 · vs IV → edge: Carter Jensen

ATTACK Cristian Javier RHP · HOU

leak 6

1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.09 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carter Jensen — C+ ●●●●●

2 Vinnie Pasquantino — C ●●●○○

3 Bobby Witt — C ●○○○○

FADE Daniel Lynch IV LHP · KC

leak 6

0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cam Smith — C ●●●●○

2 Isaac Paredes — D ●●●○○

3 Christian Walker — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Carter Jensen: 12.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 40.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Carter Jensen ✶ HOT vs Javier Edge — 0.219 · 91.4 · 10.4% 40.0% 23.4% F B O C+ 65

· HOU Cam Smith vs IV Edge — 0.186 · 89.0 · 8.4% 30.0% 23.2% F B O C 56

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs Javier Edge — 0.143 · 89.8 · 8.7% 27.3% 9.4% F B O C 51

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs IV Edge — 0.192 · 88.8 · 7.5% 9.1% 14.3% F B O C 52

· KC Bobby Witt vs Javier — 0.168 · 92.3 · 10.2% 0.0% 16.3% F B O C 52

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs IV — 0.280 · 94.2 · 9.9% 0.0% 16.0% F B O C 59

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Javier Edge — 0.210 · 93.1 · 11.0% 0.0% 14.6% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· HOU Isaac Paredes vs IV Edge — 0.175 · 86.2 · 5.5% 25.0% 18.0% F B O D 49

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs IV Edge — 0.155 · 89.0 · 6.1% 11.1% 9.8% F B O D 45

· HOU Jeremy Peña COOL vs IV Edge — 0.179 · 88.3 · 6.3% 8.3% 11.3% F B O D 49

· KC Salvador Perez vs Javier — 0.151 · 89.1 · 9.5% 0.0% 12.5% F B O D 47

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs IV Edge — 0.152 · 85.6 · 5.3% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 39

· KC Nick Loftin COOL vs Javier — 0.143 · 86.8 · 6.1% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 44

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Javier Edge — 0.157 · 89.6 · 7.1% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 46

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs IV Edge — 0.118 · 85.9 · 3.6% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 35

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Javier Edge — 0.115 · 88.3 · 6.7% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.9% ← leak BRK 25.7% OFF 16.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Carter Jensen L Edge

11.4% 14.0% 11.1% 12.2% C+ 65 —

Jac Caglianone L Edge

12.3% 17.4% 10.8% 13.7% C 59 —

Bobby Witt R

12.9% 9.3% 14.5% 11.8% C 52 —

Vinnie Pasquantino L Edge

9.6% 6.6% 7.0% 8.5% C 51 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Salvador Perez R

12.5% 7.2% 9.7% 10.1% D 47 —

Michael Massey L Edge

6.8% 6.3% 1.6% 5.7% D 46 —

111

Nick Loftin R

5.5% 3.0% 0.0% 4.2% D 44 —

146

Isaac Collins S Edge

5.6% 7.0% 1.7% 5.1% D 41 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.9% usage) carries Javier's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.8% ← leak BRK 28.7% OFF 24.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Yordan Alvarez L

16.7% 20.6% 8.2% 15.9% C 59 —

Cam Smith R Edge

8.7% 16.5% 16.2% 11.3% C 56 —

Christian Walker R Edge

8.4% 9.3% 11.9% 9.1% C 52 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Isaac Paredes R Edge

6.3% 2.7% 1.7% 4.8% D 49 —

Jeremy Peña R Edge

6.0% 5.9% 11.1% 6.4% D 49 —

100

Yainer Diaz R Edge

5.8% 7.0% 4.9% 6.0% D 45 —

155

Jose Altuve R Edge

5.2% 4.7% 0.0% 4.5% D 39 —

178

Christian Vazquez R Edge

3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.8% usage) carries IV's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Jensen Pasquantino Smith Paredes

Legend

attack side — vs Javier fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Carter Jensen — · 65

Cam Smith — · 56

Isaac Paredes — · 49

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.12× Wind 5 mph out 87°F retractable

↑

5 mph · out

92°F

7:10p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

90°F

8:10p

↑

4 mph · out

89°F

9:10p

↑

3 mph · out

87°F

10:10p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

85°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.34× 87°F, wind 5 mph ESE (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cristian Javier · RHP 1.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.09 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Carter Jensen ✶ 65 C+ — HOT 8 0.219 91.4 10.4% 20.4%vs RHP 399 17.5% 40.0% 23.4% 26

2 Jac Caglianone 59 C — COOL 24 0.210 93.1 11.0% 29.1%vs RHP 416 14.2% 0.0% 14.6% 12

3 Bobby Witt 52 C — WARM 50 0.168 92.3 10.2% 15.9%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 16.3% 32

4 Vinnie Pasquantino 51 C — WARM 57 0.143 89.8 8.7% 14.1%vs RHP 396 12.0% 27.3% 9.4% 36

5 Salvador Perez 47 D — WARM 78 0.151 89.1 9.5% 16.9%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 38

6 Michael Massey 46 D — COOL 95 0.157 89.6 7.1% 9.6%vs RHP 399 6.9% 0.0% 8.6% 33

7 Nick Loftin 44 D — COOL 111 0.143 86.8 6.1% 11.1%vs RHP 397 8.6% 0.0% 10.2% 27

8 Isaac Collins 41 D — COOL 146 0.115 88.3 6.7% 7.3%vs RHP 394 4.9% 0.0% 6.9% 21

vs Daniel Lynch IV · LHP 0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 59 C — COOL 18 0.280 94.2 9.9% 23.3%vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 23

2 Cam Smith 56 C — WARM 36 0.186 89.0 8.4% 23.3%vs LHP 410 13.7% 30.0% 23.2% 22

3 Christian Walker 52 C — COOL 51 0.192 88.8 7.5% 23.8%vs LHP 393 16.4% 9.1% 14.3% 32

4 Isaac Paredes 49 D — WARM 63 0.175 86.2 5.5% 8.8%vs LHP 377 13.2% 25.0% 18.0% 30

5 Jeremy Peña 49 D — COOL 65 0.179 88.3 6.3% 11.1%vs LHP 387 15.6% 8.3% 11.3% 28

6 Yainer Diaz 45 D — WARM 100 0.155 89.0 6.1% 11.1%vs LHP 391 10.4% 11.1% 9.8% 27

7 Jose Altuve 39 D — COOL 155 0.152 85.6 5.3% 16.7%vs LHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 37

8 Christian Vazquez 35 D — COOL 178 0.118 85.9 3.6% 9.1%vs LHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 8

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

13 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.