TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ AZ

Neutral air · 1.00×

MIA @ AZ

Chase Field · 9:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 4 mph out 82°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+2 ↑

6:40p

+1 ↑

7:40p

+0 ↑

8:40p

-1 ↑

9:40p

-1 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +2

Best of game Kyle Stowers conv 21 · vs Kelly ⟷ Nolan Arenado conv 27 · vs Gusto → edge: Kyle Stowers

ATTACK Merrill Kelly RHP · AZ

leak 87

1.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.73 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Stowers — C ●●●○○

2 Javier Sanoja — D ●●●○○

3 Jakob Marsee — D ●●○○○

FADE Ryan Gusto RHP · MIA

leak 42

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Arenado — D ●●●●○

2 Corbin Carroll — C ●●●○○

3 Gabriel Moreno — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Stowers: 12.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 18.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIA Kyle Stowers ✶ vs Kelly Edge — 0.217 · 92.4 · 11.8% 18.2% 23.3% F B O C 58

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Gusto Edge — 0.230 · 91.8 · 10.2% 20.0% 21.2% F B O C 54

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Kelly — 0.223 · 91.2 · 12.3% 0.0% 17.5% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Gusto — 0.204 · 85.0 · 7.3% 33.3% 21.4% F B O D 48

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Gusto — 0.166 · 89.1 · 8.1% 27.3% 10.9% F B O D 43

· MIA Javier Sanoja HOT vs Kelly — 0.160 · 87.0 · 5.4% 23.1% 12.4% F B O D 41

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Kelly Edge — 0.123 · 87.4 · 6.2% 16.7% 8.1% F B O D 38

· AZ Tim Tawa COOL vs Gusto — 0.159 · 90.5 · 9.2% 10.0% 10.2% F B O D 42

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Gusto Edge — 0.191 · 90.1 · 9.0% 9.1% 10.1% F B O D 46

· AZ Jose Fernandez vs Gusto — 0.094 · 87.8 · 5.8% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 30

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Kelly Edge — 0.093 · 86.7 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 32

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Kelly — 0.134 · 89.1 · 8.2% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 39

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt vs Gusto — 0.106 · 86.7 · 7.4% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 32

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Gusto Edge — 0.112 · 87.4 · 4.7% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 29

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Gusto Edge — 0.127 · 87.4 · 5.3% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.7% ← leak OFF 27.8% BRK 21.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Stowers L Edge

10.3% 6.8% 21.2% 12.5% C 58 —

Heriberto Hernández R

14.0% 12.0% 13.1% 13.6% C 52 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

139

Javier Sanoja R

3.2% 0.0% 2.7% 2.6% D 41 —

159

Otto Lopez R

8.0% 3.9% 4.0% 6.0% D 39 —

165

Jakob Marsee L Edge

3.5% 6.4% 1.5% 3.5% D 38 —

197

Xavier Edwards S Edge

3.9% 2.4% 2.0% 3.2% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.7% usage) carries Kelly's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.3% ← leak BRK 33.0% OFF 13.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Corbin Carroll L Edge

13.5% 13.0% 8.8% 12.3% C 54 —

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Nolan Arenado R

9.5% 1.6% 4.5% 6.3% D 48 —

Ketel Marte S Edge

12.4% 8.2% 4.1% 9.5% D 46 —

119

Gabriel Moreno R

7.8% 7.5% 7.3% 7.6% D 43 —

132

Tim Tawa R

9.2% 11.3% 10.7% 10.0% D 42 —

199

Ryan Waldschmidt R

7.3% 7.8% 0.0% 6.5% D 32 —

202

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.4% 2.5% 1.1% 3.3% D 31 —

206

Jose Fernandez

3.7% 5.5% 0.0% 4.0% D 30 —

211

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

3.4% 1.2% 1.8% 2.6% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.3% usage) carries Gusto's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stowers Sanoja Carroll Arenado Moreno

Legend

attack side — vs Kelly fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Corbin Carroll — · 54

Nolan Arenado — · 48

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.91× Wind 4 mph out 82°F retractable

↑

4 mph · out

84°F

6:40p · peak

↑

4 mph · slight_out

83°F

7:40p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

82°F

8:40p

-1

↑

4 mph · slight_out

80°F

9:40p

-1

↑

4 mph · slight_out

79°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.00× 82°F, wind 4 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Merrill Kelly · RHP 1.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.73 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers ✶ 58 C — · 27 0.217 92.4 11.8% 23.0%vs RHP 400 14.2% 18.2% 23.3% 25

2 Heriberto Hernández 52 C — · 49 0.223 91.2 12.3% 25.0%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 17.5% 35

3 Javier Sanoja 41 D — HOT 139 0.160 87.0 5.4% 11.5%vs RHP 383 8.4% 23.1% 12.4% 45

4 Otto Lopez 39 D — COOL 159 0.134 89.1 8.2% 8.4%vs RHP 402 6.1% 0.0% 7.3% 39

5 Jakob Marsee 38 D — WARM 165 0.123 87.4 6.2% 12.5%vs RHP 383 8.3% 16.7% 8.1% 38

6 Xavier Edwards 32 D — COOL 197 0.093 86.7 6.0% 2.6%vs RHP 396 3.7% 0.0% 8.0% 6

vs Ryan Gusto · RHP 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 54 C — WARM 43 0.230 91.8 10.2% 16.5%vs RHP 402 13.8% 20.0% 21.2% 23

2 Nolan Arenado 48 D — WARM 66 0.204 85.0 7.3% 21.9%vs RHP 388 16.3% 33.3% 21.4% 28

3 Ketel Marte 46 D — COOL 94 0.191 90.1 9.0% 14.4%vs RHP 408 14.4% 9.1% 10.1% 39

4 Gabriel Moreno 43 D — COOL 119 0.166 89.1 8.1% 14.3%vs RHP 397 11.7% 27.3% 10.9% 35

5 Tim Tawa 42 D — COOL 132 0.159 90.5 9.2% 24.4%vs RHP 399 9.6% 10.0% 10.2% 24

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 32 D — WARM 199 0.106 86.7 7.4% 9.7%vs RHP 415 3.5% 0.0% 6.9% 10

7 Ildemaro Vargas 31 D — COOL 202 0.127 87.4 5.3% 6.0%vs RHP 396 4.4% 0.0% 6.1% 26

8 Jose Fernandez 30 D — · 206 0.094 87.8 5.8% 21.4%vs RHP 409 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 0

9 Geraldo Perdomo 29 D — COOL 211 0.112 87.4 4.7% 9.2%vs RHP 383 5.9% 0.0% 6.4% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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