5
HRs allowed
7.9%
HR rate (pool)
9.1%
Overall HR/FB
3.41
FIP
3.81
xFIP
-0.40
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
17
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 17th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
72.6%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.9 EV · 416 ft
max EV allowed 110.0
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR ↑
15D · 3 HR ↑
30D · 3 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Ryan Gusto.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
28.2%
86.3
23.6°
1
-0.6
Changeup Offspeed
16.9%
84.1
2.8°
1
-1.5
Cutter Hard
13.9%
83.8
15.8°
0
-2.1
Sinker Hard
12.9%
78.1
12.8°
0
+0.7
Sweeper Breaking
12.4%
83.5
26.6°
1
-1.0
Slider Breaking
9.6%
86.6
10.3°
2
+3.3
Curveball Breaking
6.2%
88.8
8.8°
0
+5.3
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups63
HRs allowed (pool)5
Pool HR rate7.9%
Pool HR/game day0.62
Top-15 matchups3
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB9.1% 17
HR/9—
FIP3.41 27
xFIP3.81
FIP − xFIP-0.40 22
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed72.6%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-07
Fastball
Hard · 28.2% usage
-0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.3 mph
Avg launch angle23.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches205
Changeup
Offspeed · 16.9% usage
-1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.1 mph
Avg launch angle2.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches123
Cutter
Hard · 13.9% usage
-2.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.8 mph
Avg launch angle15.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches101
Sinker
Hard · 12.9% usage
+0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.1 mph
Avg launch angle12.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches94
Sweeper
Breaking · 12.4% usage
-1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.5 mph
Avg launch angle26.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches90
Slider
Breaking · 9.6% usage
+3.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.6 mph
Avg launch angle10.3°
HRs allowed2
Pitches70
Curveball
Breaking · 6.2% usage
+5.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against88.8 mph
Avg launch angle8.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches45
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Ryan Gusto.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
5 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.9 EV · 416 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 8 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-04
7
2
106.7
2026-07-29
7
1
106.9
2026-07-24
7
0
110.0
2026-07-02
9
2
105.1
2026-06-27
9
0
106.9
2026-06-21
8
0
103.1
2026-06-15
7
0
106.0
2026-06-10
9
0
108.9
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Ryan Gusto isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Ryan Gusto isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
9
2
22%
7
2
29%
31
1
3%
9
0
0%
7
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.