14
HRs allowed
10.6%
HR rate (pool)
12.6%
Overall HR/FB
3.75
FIP
3.89
xFIP
-0.14
FIP − xFIP gap
#20
Leakiest SP today (of 32, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
45
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 45th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
18.9%
Hard-Hit% allowed
69.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.6 EV · 402 ft
max EV allowed 111.5
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR ↑
15D · 4 HR ↑
30D · 6 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
Overall
Score
Prime targets · 1
Neutral · 5
Long shots · 2 — below the fade line
3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
No arsenal data cached for this pitcher.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups132
HRs allowed (pool)14
Pool HR rate10.6%
Pool HR/game day0.88
Top-15 matchups4
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB12.6% 45
HR/9—
FIP3.75 36
xFIP3.89
FIP − xFIP-0.14 36
Barrel% allowed18.9%
Hard-Hit% allowed69.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-09-23
No arsenal data cached for this pitcher.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
14 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.6 EV · 402 ft
6 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-16
9
2
107.1
2026-09-11
7
1
107.9
2026-09-05
9
1
111.5
2026-08-31
8
1
107.0
2026-08-26
9
0
102.1
2026-08-21
9
1
104.5
2026-08-15
9
2
103.2
2026-08-09
9
1
107.2
2026-08-04
7
2
106.7
2026-07-29
7
1
106.9
2026-07-24
7
0
110.0
2026-07-02
9
2
105.1
2026-06-27
9
0
106.9
2026-06-21
8
0
103.1
2026-06-15
7
0
106.0
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Wrigley Field
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
1.117
Wind
9 mph from NE
Temp
66°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
6:40p
9
66°
-6
7:40p
9
66°
-5
8:40p
9
66°
-5
9:40p
9
66°
-4
10:40p
8
65°
-3
-5
Slight red alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 9 mph from ENE
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
355ft
deep
CF
400ft
avg
RF
353ft
deep
vs LHH → RF
355ft
5 HRs allowed
vs RHH → LF ▲ leans
356ft
7 HRs allowed
Shortest: LF 351 ft
HRs allowed avg 402 ft · n=14
Longest LF/RF lines; wind-dependent
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
74
5
7%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
7
2
29%
8
1
12%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 8. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Ryan Gusto
Is Ryan Gusto likely to give up a home run tonight?
Ryan Gusto pitches tonight (MIA @ CHC at Wrigley Field). This season he has allowed 14 home runs across 16 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
How many home runs has Ryan Gusto allowed this season?
Ryan Gusto has allowed 14 home runs across 16 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Ryan Gusto?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Ryan Gusto include Nick Kurtz (2), Nolan Schanuel (2), Ozzie Albies (2) and 28 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.