2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Matt Olson 7 HRs · 2 Ceddanne Rafaela 5 HRs · 3 Sal Stewart 5 HRs · 4 Kyle Stowers 4 HRs · 5 Pete Crow-Armstrong 4 HRs · 6 Ozzie Albies 4 HRs · 7 Wilyer Abreu 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Chase Meidroth 3 HRs · 10 Ezequiel Duran 3 HRs · 11 Royce Lewis 3 HRs · 12 Randy Arozarena 3 HRs 1 Matt Olson 7 HRs · 2 Ceddanne Rafaela 5 HRs · 3 Sal Stewart 5 HRs · 4 Kyle Stowers 4 HRs · 5 Pete Crow-Armstrong 4 HRs · 6 Ozzie Albies 4 HRs · 7 Wilyer Abreu 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Chase Meidroth 3 HRs · 10 Ezequiel Duran 3 HRs · 11 Royce Lewis 3 HRs · 12 Randy Arozarena 3 HRs
Ryan Gusto

Ryan Gusto

RHP MIA
63 matchups scored · 8 game days
5
HRs allowed
7.9%
HR rate (pool)
9.1%
Overall HR/FB
3.41
FIP
3.81
xFIP
-0.40
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter STINGY
LEAKY 17
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
17
no model flags today
Vulnerability 17th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
72.6%
72.6%
Fly-ball rate
avg HR 103.9 EV · 416 ft max EV allowed 110.0
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
2026-07-02 · 2 HR 2026-07-29 · 1 HR 2026-08-04 · 2 HR
7D · 3 HR ↑ 15D · 3 HR ↑ 30D · 3 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Not on today's slate — matchup context appears when he's next listed.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Ryan Gusto.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard 28.2% 86.3 23.6° 1 -0.6
Changeup Offspeed 16.9% 84.1 2.8° 1 -1.5
Cutter Hard 13.9% 83.8 15.8° 0 -2.1
Sinker Hard 12.9% 78.1 12.8° 0 +0.7
Sweeper Breaking 12.4% 83.5 26.6° 1 -1.0
Slider Breaking 9.6% 86.6 10.3° 2 +3.3
Curveball Breaking 6.2% 88.8 8.8° 0 +5.3
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups63
HRs allowed (pool)5
Pool HR rate7.9%
Pool HR/game day0.62
Top-15 matchups3
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB9.1% 17
HR/9
FIP3.41 27
xFIP3.81
FIP − xFIP-0.40 22
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed72.6%
FB%
K/9
BB/9
WHIP
IP
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-07
Fastball
Hard · 28.2% usage
-0.6 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.3 mph
Avg launch angle23.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches205
Changeup
Offspeed · 16.9% usage
-1.5 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.1 mph
Avg launch angle2.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches123
Cutter
Hard · 13.9% usage
-2.1 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.8 mph
Avg launch angle15.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches101
Sinker
Hard · 12.9% usage
+0.7 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.1 mph
Avg launch angle12.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches94
Sweeper
Breaking · 12.4% usage
-1.0 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.5 mph
Avg launch angle26.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches90
Slider
Breaking · 9.6% usage
+3.3 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.6 mph
Avg launch angle10.3°
HRs allowed2
Pitches70
Curveball
Breaking · 6.2% usage
+5.3 run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against88.8 mph
Avg launch angle8.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches45
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Ryan Gusto.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
5 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.9 EV · 416 ft 3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
2026-08-04 Ozzie Albies #93 47 Truist Park 100.1 32.0° 397
2026-08-04 Austin Riley #115 45 Truist Park 106.7 30.0° 433
2026-07-29 Trea Turner #129 40 loanDepot Park 103.8 27.0° 413
2026-07-02 Mickey Moniak #9 66 Coors Field 105.1 25.0° 407
2026-07-02 Jake McCarthy #45 50 Coors Field 103.8 30.0° 429
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 8 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-04 Truist Park 7 2 106.7
2026-07-29 loanDepot Park 7 1 106.9
2026-07-24 loanDepot Park 7 0 110.0
2026-07-02 Coors Field 9 2 105.1
2026-06-27 Busch Stadium 9 0 106.9
2026-06-21 loanDepot Park 8 0 103.1
2026-06-15 Citizens Bank Park 7 0 106.0
2026-06-10 loanDepot Park 9 0 108.9
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Ryan Gusto isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Ryan Gusto isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
Coors Field 9 2 22%
Truist Park 7 2 29%
loanDepot Park 31 1 3%
Busch Stadium 9 0 0%
Citizens Bank Park 7 0 0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Six home runs to freedom

Ryan Gusto's full pitcher profile is waiting

Upgrade to see the Threat Matrix, vulnerability signals, arsenal damage, BvP history, HR log, and ballpark conditions.

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.
63 more waiting in the on-deck circle
THR 3.3.152 · build 657

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.

Yesterday's board graded name-by-name — hits and misses — plus tonight's ranked board (scores and matchups; batter names are Pro), free in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.