TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ TOR

Suppressed air · 0.96×

DET @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 3:07p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 3 mph in 75°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-1 ↑

3:07p

-1 ↑

4:07p

-1 ↑

5:07p

-3 ↑

6:07p

-4 ↑

7:07p

best window is early — 3:07p at -1

Best of game Spencer Torkelson conv 37 · vs Scherzer ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 34 · vs Montero → edge: Kazuma Okamoto

ATTACK Max Scherzer RHP · TOR

leak 93

1.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.43 · leakiest side of this game

1 Spencer Torkelson — C ●●●●●

2 Riley Greene — C ●●●○○

3 Dillon Dingler — C ●●○○○

FADE Keider Montero RHP · DET

leak 70

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.38 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto — C+ ●●●●●

2 Brett Bateman — D ●●●○○

3 Josh Smith — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kazuma Okamoto: 13.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 41.7% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Scherzer — 0.191 · 89.3 · 10.3% 50.0% 24.2% F B O C 58

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto ✶ vs Montero — 0.232 · 90.6 · 10.2% 41.7% 27.1% F B O C+ 61

· DET Riley Greene vs Scherzer Edge — 0.199 · 90.4 · 11.7% 23.1% 21.4% F B O C 58

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Scherzer — 0.211 · 88.4 · 9.4% 11.1% 16.0% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· TOR Brett Bateman vs Montero Edge — 0.100 · 84.2 · 3.8% 25.0% 10.1% F B O D 36

· TOR Josh Smith vs Montero Edge — 0.126 · 85.8 · 7.4% 16.7% 12.5% F B O D 38

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HOT vs Montero — 0.099 · 90.5 · 7.2% 20.0% 7.6% F B O D 36

· DET Hao-Yu Lee COOL vs Scherzer — 0.153 · 89.7 · 8.5% 10.0% 10.8% F B O D 47

· DET Colt Keith vs Scherzer Edge — 0.145 · 88.9 · 8.3% 10.0% 10.4% F B O D 44

· TOR George Springer vs Montero — 0.165 · 88.6 · 7.0% 10.0% 10.3% F B O D 42

· DET Max Clark vs Scherzer Edge — 0.173 · 88.1 · 2.9% 9.1% 9.9% F B O D 40

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Scherzer Edge — 0.151 · 87.9 · 8.1% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 41

· TOR Brandon Valenzuela COOL vs Montero Edge — 0.145 · 88.2 · 7.1% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 38

· DET Brett Callahan COOL vs Scherzer Edge — 0.154 · 90.2 · 10.6% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 44

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Montero Edge — 0.117 · 87.0 · 4.3% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 32

· DET John Peck vs Scherzer — 0.030 · 88.1 · 10.0% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 40

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Montero — 0.108 · 84.1 · 3.9% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 29

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Montero — 0.109 · 86.0 · 4.8% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.7% BRK 31.7% OFF 15.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Spencer Torkelson R

12.7% 10.5% 10.3% 11.9% C 58 —

Riley Greene L Edge

16.0% 18.1% 8.5% 15.1% C 58 —

Dillon Dingler R

11.7% 7.4% 6.1% 9.9% C 55 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Hao-Yu Lee R

11.4% 4.5% 3.4% 8.1% D 47 —

108

Colt Keith L Edge

7.0% 14.8% 4.2% 7.8% D 44 —

112

Brett Callahan L Edge

15.8% 0.0% 10.0% 12.5% D 44 —

136

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

8.4% 6.5% 3.6% 7.2% D 41 —

148

Max Clark L Edge

0.0% 5.9% 0.0% 0.9% D 40 —

151

John Peck R

12.5% 0.0% 25.0% 11.1% D 40 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Scherzer's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.2% ← leak BRK 33.0% OFF 13.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R

15.0% 9.3% 21.9% 13.9% C+ 61 —

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

131

George Springer R

6.0% 7.2% 8.6% 6.6% D 42 —

162

Josh Smith L Edge

8.8% 11.1% 0.0% 7.2% D 38 —

164

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

3.9% 15.4% 10.0% 6.9% D 38 —

172

Brett Bateman L Edge

1.6% 3.8% 0.0% 1.9% D 36 —

174

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. R

6.3% 10.6% 1.7% 7.0% D 36 —

198

Nathan Lukes L Edge

1.5% 2.8% 5.7% 2.5% D 32 —

207

Myles Straw R

3.6% 0.0% 4.8% 3.0% D 30 —

209

Ernie Clement R

2.1% 2.0% 1.5% 2.0% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.2% usage) carries Montero's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Torkelson Greene Dingler Okamoto Smith Bateman Jr.

Legend

attack side — vs Scherzer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Spencer Torkelson — · 58

Kazuma Okamoto — · 61

Riley Greene — · 58

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 3:07p · roof retractable

Park 0.96× Wind 3 mph in 75°F retractable

-1

↑

1 mph · in

77°F

3:07p · peak

-1

↑

1 mph · in

77°F

4:07p

-1

↑

1 mph · in

77°F

5:07p

-3

↑

3 mph · in

77°F

6:07p

-4

↑

4 mph · in

76°F

7:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.96× 75°F, wind 3 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Max Scherzer · RHP 1.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.43 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Spencer Torkelson 58 C — · 26 0.191 89.3 10.3% 25.6%vs RHP 392 15.7% 50.0% 24.2% 23

2 Riley Greene 58 C — WARM 29 0.199 90.4 11.7% 17.6%vs RHP 399 13.1% 23.1% 21.4% 35

3 Dillon Dingler 55 C — COOL 39 0.211 88.4 9.4% 26.7%vs RHP 398 17.6% 11.1% 16.0% 24

4 Hao-Yu Lee 47 D — COOL 86 0.153 89.7 8.5% 20.0%vs RHP 399 16.3% 10.0% 10.8% 21

5 Colt Keith 44 D — WARM 108 0.145 88.9 8.3% 13.7%vs RHP 382 6.7% 10.0% 10.4% 17

6 Brett Callahan 44 D — COOL 112 0.154 90.2 10.6% 10.0%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 8

7 Kevin Mcgonigle 41 D — COOL 136 0.151 87.9 8.1% 11.4%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 39

8 Max Clark 40 D — WARM 148 0.173 88.1 2.9% 10.0%vs RHP 373 6.5% 9.1% 9.9% 30

9 John Peck 40 D — · 151 0.030 88.1 10.0% 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 23

vs Keider Montero · RHP 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.38 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto ✶ 61 C+ — WARM 12 0.232 90.6 10.2% 27.7%vs RHP 400 20.3% 41.7% 27.1% 30

2 George Springer 42 D — WARM 131 0.165 88.6 7.0% 19.0%vs RHP 394 11.3% 10.0% 10.3% 32

3 Josh Smith 38 D — WARM 162 0.126 85.8 7.4% 14.0%vs RHP 378 4.7% 16.7% 12.5% 11

4 Brandon Valenzuela 38 D — COOL 164 0.145 88.2 7.1% 20.7%vs RHP 394 7.4% 0.0% 8.9% 8

5 Brett Bateman 36 D — WARM 172 0.100 84.2 3.8% 40.0%vs RHP 403 25.0% 25.0% 10.1% 39

6 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 36 D — HOT 174 0.099 90.5 7.2% 9.3%vs RHP 402 6.2% 20.0% 7.6% 38

7 Nathan Lukes 32 D — · 198 0.117 87.0 4.3% 15.2%vs RHP 382 7.7% 0.0% 7.6% 39

8 Myles Straw 30 D — COOL 207 0.109 86.0 4.8% 4.2%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 20

9 Ernie Clement 29 D — COOL 209 0.108 84.1 3.9% 5.5%vs RHP 376 6.5% 0.0% 6.7% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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