0
HRs allowed
0%
HR rate (pool)
20.0%
Overall HR/FB
5.56
FIP
4.37
xFIP
#3
Leakiest SP today (of 30, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
86
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 86th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
—
Hard-Hit% allowed
—
Fly-ball rate
—
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 59.1%
BRK 16.8%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 2
Long shots · 4 — below the fade line
Read the columns: the fastball family (59.1% usage) carries his damage — FB is the leak.
3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
30.9%
87.5
39.2°
2
+2.8
Sinker Hard
28.2%
82.1
20.0°
0
-0.3
Curveball Breaking
16.8%
82.7
-21.5°
0
-2.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups0
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0%
Pool HR/game day—
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB20.0% 86
HR/9—
FIP5.56 90
xFIP4.37
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed—
Hard-Hit% allowed—
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-09-05
Fastball
Hard · 30.9% usage
+2.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.5 mph
Avg launch angle39.2°
HRs allowed2
Pitches46
Sinker
Hard · 28.2% usage
-0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.1 mph
Avg launch angle20.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches42
Curveball
Breaking · 16.8% usage
-2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.7 mph
Avg launch angle-21.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches25
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 0 scored game days · pool
No scored game days yet for Mason Adams.
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Coors Field
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
1.016
Wind
6 mph from NW
Temp
86°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
6:10p
6
86°
-3
7:10p
8
82°
+0
8:10p
10
78°
+7
9:10p
11
75°
+11
10:10p
9
73°
+9
+5
Slight green alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 7 mph from WSW
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
347ft
deep
CF
415ft
deep
RF
350ft
deep
vs LHH → RF
359ft
0 HRs allowed
vs RHH → LF
368ft
0 HRs allowed · deep
Shortest: LF 347 ft
Altitude carry; largest outfield
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
No scored matchups by venue yet for Mason Adams.
Common questions about Mason Adams
Is Mason Adams likely to give up a home run tonight?
Mason Adams pitches tonight (STL @ COL at Coors Field). This season he has allowed 0 home runs across 0 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.