Today · 2026-08-08

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⭐ Today's Slate

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🥇 Golden Slate 3 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#1 Kyle Schwarber vs Max Scherzer FIP 7.08 HR/FB 31.6% #2 Bryce Harper vs Max Scherzer FIP 7.08 HR/FB 31.6% #12 Pro pick vs Aaron Nola FIP 5.25 HR/FB 28.9%

📦 STACK Max Scherzer FIP 7.08 HR/FB 31.6% → #1 Kyle Schwarber, #2 Bryce Harper

📦 STACK Gavin Williams FIP 3.46 HR/FB 19.4% → #4 Munetaka Murakami, #9 Pro pick

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-08-07. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

91.6% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Roster	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Last HR	Last 5	Due	BvP	BP	Weather
1	Kyle Schwarber (L) ³	74	-14.4	●	Max Scherzer (RHP) TOR @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:05p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	33	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls20 BBE Barrel%13.0% Avg EV93.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	21d Last HR · 2026-07-18 OffSean Manaea Exit Velo106.0 mph Angle41.0° Distance399 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○○○○○	5.3×	1	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.7% HR/91.01 FIP3.82 IP962.6999999999999 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+50 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp85°F Wind10 mph WSW Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+50 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 32 HR Note85°F, wind 10 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
2	Matt Olson (L) ⁵	72	-8.2	●	Gerrit Cole (RHP) ATL @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	3:05p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	33	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%11.7% Avg EV92.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-08-07 OffTim Hill Exit Velo109.8 mph Angle19.0° Distance407 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	●○○●●	0.0×	·	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.4% HR/91.00 FIP3.74 IP1021.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+75 Weather · Yankee Stadium hot air · strong wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp89°F Wind14 mph WSW Characterout HR Modifier6 Spray/Wind+75 · Deep green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 32 HR Note89°F, wind 14 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast)
3	Bryce Harper (L) ²	71	-11.0	●	Max Scherzer (RHP) TOR @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:05p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	24	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-08-03 OffClayton Beeter Exit Velo112.6 mph Angle22.0° Distance433 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	●○○○○	0.8×	1	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.7% HR/91.01 FIP3.82 IP962.6999999999999 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+41 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp85°F Wind10 mph WSW Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+41 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 24 HR Note85°F, wind 10 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
4	Munetaka Murakami (L) ³	68	-7.9	●	Gavin Williams (RHP) CLE @ CWS · Rate Field	7:15p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	25	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%14.7% Avg EV93.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-08-07 OffParker Messick Exit Velo110.5 mph Angle42.0° Distance406 ft StadiumRate Field	○○○○●	0.0×	·	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.16 FIP3.94 IP1010.3000000000001 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 24 HR NoteUnknown stadium
5	Cj Abrams (L) ³	64	-6.6	●	Chase Burns (RHP) CIN @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	28	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%9.4% Avg EV89.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	18d Last HR · 2026-07-21 OffMichael Lorenzen Exit Velo102.7 mph Angle35.0° Distance434 ft StadiumCoors Field	○●●○○	0.4×	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.27 FIP4.75 IP983.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+25 Weather · Nationals Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind5 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+25 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceblend · 1 HR Note80°F, wind 5 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
6	Pro pick (R) ³	64	-9.2	●	George Kirby (RHP) TB @ SEA · T-Mobile Park	9:50p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%10.3% Avg EV93.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	SEA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.6% HR/91.12 FIP3.78 IP1006.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-15 Weather · T-Mobile Park warm air · light crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp77°F Wind6 mph N Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-15 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 33 HR Note77°F, wind 6 mph N (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
7	Pro pick (L) ³	63	-5.5	●	Kyle Bradish (RHP) BAL @ TEX · Globe Life Field	7:15p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%9.5% Avg EV91.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.07 FIP4.13 IP1005.2 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-13 Weather · Globe Life Field hot air · strong partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp96°F Wind14 mph ESE Characterslight_out HR Modifier5 Spray/Wind-13 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note96°F, wind 14 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast)
8	Pro pick (L) ³	62	-13.9	●	Brandon Pfaadt (RHP) LAD @ AZ · Chase Field	8:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%11.7% Avg EV93.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.4% HR/91.18 FIP4.41 IP1005.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-25 Weather · Chase Field hot air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp107°F Wind2 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind-25 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 26 HR Note107°F, wind 2 mph NE (in) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
9	Pro pick (L) ³	62	-8.7	●	Seth Lugo (RHP) CHC @ KC · Kauffman Stadium	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%10.3% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	KC Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.6% HR/91.33 FIP4.76 IP991.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-30 Weather · Kauffman Stadium hot air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp85°F Wind6 mph ESE Charactercross HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind-30 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 25 HR Note85°F, wind 6 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
10	Pro pick (R) ³	62	-9.8	●	Aaron Nola (RHP) TOR @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV90.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.8% HR/91.24 FIP3.85 IP995.6 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+33 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp85°F Wind10 mph WSW Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+33 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note85°F, wind 10 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
11	Pro pick (R) ³	62	-4.6	●	Andrew Alvarez (LHP) CIN @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%8.8% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.2% HR/91.42 FIP4.83 IP1021.2 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+25 Weather · Nationals Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind5 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+25 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 25 HR Note80°F, wind 5 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
12	Pro pick (S) ³	62	-4.6	●	Andrew Alvarez (LHP) CIN @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🔵 C+	SHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls34 BBE Barrel%9.0% Avg EV94.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.2% HR/91.42 FIP4.83 IP1021.2 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+26 Weather · Nationals Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind5 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+26 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note80°F, wind 5 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
13	Pro pick (R) ³	61	-4.9	●	Gavin Williams (RHP) CLE @ CWS · Rate Field	7:15p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%12.6% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.16 FIP3.94 IP1010.3000000000001 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 24 HR NoteUnknown stadium
14	Pro pick (R) ³	61	-11.0	●	Matthew Liberatore (LHP) COL @ STL · Busch Stadium	7:15p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls18 BBE Barrel%11.8% Avg EV90.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	STL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.4% HR/91.01 FIP4.16 IP1007.8000000000001 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+8 Weather · Busch Stadium hot air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp87°F Wind6 mph SE Charactercross HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+8 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 32 HR Note87°F, wind 6 mph SE (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
15	Pro pick (L) ³	60	-5.2	●	Griffin Jax (RHP) TB @ SEA · T-Mobile Park	9:50p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV91.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.1% HR/91.20 FIP4.05 IP1008.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-11 Weather · T-Mobile Park warm air · light crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp77°F Wind6 mph N Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-11 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note77°F, wind 6 mph N (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
16	Pro pick (L) ³	60	-5.2	●	Chris Sale (LHP) ATL @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	3:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%9.5% Avg EV92.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.18 FIP4.22 IP1003.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+77 Weather · Yankee Stadium hot air · strong wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp89°F Wind14 mph WSW Characterout HR Modifier6 Spray/Wind+77 · Deep green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 30 HR Note89°F, wind 14 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast)
17	Pro pick (L) ³	58	-6.8	●	Andrew Alvarez (LHP) CIN @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%7.8% Avg EV88.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.2% HR/91.42 FIP4.83 IP1021.2 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+25 Weather · Nationals Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80°F Wind5 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+25 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note80°F, wind 5 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
18	Pro pick (L) ³	58	-7.2	●	Aaron Nola (RHP) TOR @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:05p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls11 BBE Barrel%10.5% Avg EV90.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.8% HR/91.24 FIP3.85 IP995.6 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+50 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp85°F Wind10 mph WSW Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+50 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 8 HR Note85°F, wind 10 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
19	Pro pick (L) ³	57	·	●	Matthew Liberatore (LHP) COL @ STL · Busch Stadium	7:15p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%9.7% Avg EV89.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	STL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.4% HR/91.01 FIP4.16 IP1007.8000000000001 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-27 Weather · Busch Stadium hot air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp87°F Wind6 mph SE Charactercross HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind-27 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note87°F, wind 6 mph SE (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
20	Pro pick (R) ³	57	-9.6	●	Jacob deGrom (RHP) BAL @ TEX · Globe Life Field	7:15p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%10.5% Avg EV94.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TEX Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.25 FIP4.16 IP990.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+5 Weather · Globe Life Field hot air · strong partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp96°F Wind14 mph ESE Characterslight_out HR Modifier5 Spray/Wind+5 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note96°F, wind 14 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast)
21	Pro pick (L) ³	60	-11.3	●	NYM Bullpen Proxy NYM @ PIT · PNC Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%12.6% Avg EV91.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	NYM Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.12 FIP4.09 IP1040.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-5 Weather · PNC Park warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79°F Wind6 mph SW Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-5 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 24 HR Note79°F, wind 6 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
22	Pro pick (L) ³	56	-16.2	●	Michael King (RHP) HOU @ SD · Petco Park	7:15p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%12.4% Avg EV94.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.13 FIP4.25 IP1009.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-7 Weather · Petco Park hot air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp87°F Wind11 mph WNW Charactercross HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind-7 · Neutral Spray Sourceblend · 3 HR Note87°F, wind 11 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
23	Pro pick (R) ³	56	-4.3	●	Jacob deGrom (RHP) BAL @ TEX · Globe Life Field	7:15p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls18 BBE Barrel%10.1% Avg EV92.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TEX Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.25 FIP4.16 IP990.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+27 Weather · Globe Life Field hot air · strong partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp96°F Wind14 mph ESE Characterslight_out HR Modifier5 Spray/Wind+27 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR Note96°F, wind 14 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast)
24	Pro pick (L) ³	56	-9.0	●	Taj Bradley (RHP) MIN @ MIL · American Family Field	7:10p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV92.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	MIN Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.14 FIP4.33 IP1010.0 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+3 Weather · American Family Field warm air · light partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp77°F Wind7 mph WSW Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+3 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note77°F, wind 7 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
25	Pro pick (L) ³	56	-9.9	●	Brandon Pfaadt (RHP) LAD @ AZ · Chase Field	8:10p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%10.6% Avg EV90.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.4% HR/91.18 FIP4.41 IP1005.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-24 Weather · Chase Field hot air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp107°F Wind2 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind-24 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 27 HR Note107°F, wind 2 mph NE (in) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
26	Pro pick (L) ³	56	-7.7	●	Max Scherzer (RHP) TOR @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:05p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%9.3% Avg EV89.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.7% HR/91.01 FIP3.82 IP962.6999999999999 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+43 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp85°F Wind10 mph WSW Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+43 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note85°F, wind 10 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
27	Pro pick (L) ³	55	-8.2	●	Gavin Williams (RHP) CLE @ CWS · Rate Field	7:15p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%11.6% Avg EV88.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.16 FIP3.94 IP1010.3000000000001 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 24 HR NoteUnknown stadium
28	Pro pick (R) ³	54	-6.9	●	Anthony Kay (LHP) CLE @ CWS · Rate Field	7:15p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls8 BBE Barrel%10.5% Avg EV89.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CWS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.0% HR/91.07 FIP4.19 IP990.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 12 HR NoteUnknown stadium
29	Pro pick (R) ³	54	-8.5	●	Aaron Nola (RHP) TOR @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:05p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls42 BBE Barrel%8.4% Avg EV88.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.8% HR/91.24 FIP3.85 IP995.6 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+20 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp85°F Wind10 mph WSW Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+20 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 12 HR Note85°F, wind 10 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
30	Pro pick (R) ³	54	-7.9	●	Max Scherzer (RHP) TOR @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:05p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls48 BBE Barrel%8.0% Avg EV88.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.7% HR/91.01 FIP3.82 IP962.6999999999999 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+24 Weather · Citizens Bank Park hot air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp85°F Wind10 mph WSW Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+24 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR Note85°F, wind 10 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)

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Six home runs to freedom

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Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

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Full board + 6-pick cards — Pro

Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

13.4%

▼ -4.0 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 15.4% prior 15d

Yesterday · 2026-08-07

31 HRs

19%

6 caught / 31 HRs

in top 50

#15 Munetaka Murakami

25.2%

🔵

#17 Matt Olson

22.0%

🔵

#18 Joc Pederson

28.6%

🟠

#21 Elly De La Cruz

19.8%

🟠

#37 Jackson Chourio

13.2%

🟠

#45 Daylen Lile

19.3%

🟠

Missed

Andy Pages Eugenio Suárez Nolan Arenado Mike Trout Rafael Devers +20 more

7-Day Streaks

top 50 pool

🔥 Hot

Matt Olson ×4 Dillon Dingler ×3 Daylen Lile ×2 Bryce Harper ×2 Elly De La Cruz ×2

❄️ Cold

Kyle Schwarber 0 of 7d Ben Rice 0 of 6d Christian Walker 0 of 6d Dylan Crews 0 of 6d Dominic Canzone 0 of 6d

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 19.3%

B 19.7%

C+ 16.9%

C 13.3%

D 8.9%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Today · 2026-08-08

The free preview stops at 5. Tonight's board doesn't.

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.