TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.30×

CIN @ WSH

Nationals Park · 6:45p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.18× Wind 5 mph out 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

+11 ↑

6:45p

+11 ↑

7:45p

+10 ↑

8:45p

+10 ↑

9:45p

+9 ↑

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best window is early — 6:45p at +11

Best of game Daylen Lile conv 23 · vs Burns ⟷ Jj Bleday conv 66 · vs Alvarez → edge: Jj Bleday

ATTACK Chase Burns RHP · CIN

leak 90

1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.09 · leakiest side of this game

1 Daylen Lile +500 C ●●●●○

2 Cj Abrams +370 C+ ●●●○○

3 Dylan Crews +500 C ●○○○○

FADE Andrew Alvarez LHP · WSH

leak 5

0.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.49 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jj Bleday +400 C ●●●●●

2 Sal Stewart +425 C+ ●●●●●

3 Elly De La Cruz +425 C+ ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jj Bleday: 10.5% barrels overall vs the BRK leak · 14D pace 100.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Jj Bleday ✶ vs Alvarez +400 0.240 · 88.8 · 7.8% 100.0% 32.8% F B O C 58

· CIN Sal Stewart vs Alvarez Edge +425 0.227 · 90.6 · 8.8% 38.5% 28.0% F B O C+ 62

· CIN Elly De La Cruz vs Alvarez Edge +425 0.225 · 94.0 · 9.0% 21.4% 30.9% F B O C+ 62

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Burns Edge +500 0.169 · 88.2 · 8.0% 25.0% 21.9% F B O C 52

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Burns Edge +370 0.263 · 89.7 · 9.4% 0.0% 39.2% F B O C+ 64

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Alvarez Edge +525 0.167 · 91.1 · 8.3% 18.2% 14.9% F B O C 50

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Burns +500 0.150 · 90.7 · 9.0% 7.7% 9.3% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Alvarez Edge +390 0.185 · 88.7 · 7.8% 0.0% 17.9% F B O D 46

· CIN Matt Mclain vs Alvarez Edge +750 0.141 · 87.8 · 7.0% 0.0% 16.5% F B O D 43

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Burns Edge +625 0.168 · 88.6 · 6.1% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 45

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Burns — 0.154 · 88.4 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 44

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Burns Edge — 0.039 · 84.6 · 1.8% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 25

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs Alvarez — 0.083 · 87.5 · 3.7% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 54.0% ← leak FB 42.8% OFF 3.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Sal Stewart R Edge

10.2% 17.1% 10.0% 14.0% C+ 62 +425

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

10.5% 18.7% 5.4% 14.1% C+ 62 +425

Jj Bleday L

7.7% 13.7% 5.7% 10.5% C 58 +400

Tyler Stephenson R Edge

6.8% 15.7% 5.9% 12.2% C 50 +525

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Eugenio Suarez R Edge

5.6% 13.0% 6.2% 10.9% D 46 +390

Matt Mclain R Edge

9.5% 10.1% 0.0% 9.0% D 43 +750

160

Tj Friedl L

4.0% 2.8% 0.0% 2.5% D 35 —

Read the columns: the breaking family (54.0% usage) carries Alvarez's damage — BRK is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 56.7% ← leak BRK 37.9% OFF 5.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Cj Abrams L Edge

11.1% 9.9% 12.8% 10.9% C+ 64 +370

Daylen Lile L Edge

8.4% 10.9% 3.6% 8.0% C 52 +500

Dylan Crews R

6.4% 23.5% 10.5% 10.1% C 50 +500

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

6.1% 3.3% 2.4% 4.6% D 45 +625

Jacob Young R

8.2% 4.1% 2.9% 6.3% D 44 —

201

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.7% usage) carries Burns's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stewart Cruz Bleday Stephenson Abrams Lile

Legend

attack side — vs Burns fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Jj Bleday +400 · 58

Sal Stewart +425 · 62

Elly De La Cruz +425 · 62

Daylen Lile +500 · 52

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 1.18× Wind 5 mph out 80°F open

+11

↑

5 mph · out

80°F

6:45p · peak

+11

↑

5 mph · out

76°F

7:45p

+10

↑

4 mph · out

75°F

8:45p

+10

↑

4 mph · out

75°F

9:45p

↑

4 mph · out

75°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.30× 80°F, wind 5 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andrew Alvarez · LHP 0.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.49 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart 62 C+ +425 · 11 0.227 90.6 8.8% 30.0%vs LHP 395 17.0% 38.5% 28.0% 30

2 Elly De La Cruz 62 C+ +425 · 12 0.225 94.0 9.0% 42.9%vs LHP 397 17.9% 21.4% 30.9% 34

3 Jj Bleday ✶ 58 C +400 WARM 17 0.240 88.8 7.8% 27.8%vs LHP 388 20.0% 100.0% 32.8% 27

4 Tyler Stephenson 50 C +525 · 49 0.167 91.1 8.3% 5.6%vs LHP 392 8.9% 18.2% 14.9% 21

5 Eugenio Suarez 46 D +390 WARM 72 0.185 88.7 7.8% 28.6%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 17.9% 15

6 Matt Mclain 43 D +750 WARM 88 0.141 87.8 7.0% 25.0%vs LHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 16.5% 17

7 Tj Friedl 35 D — COOL 160 0.083 87.5 3.7% 5.0% 374 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 8

vs Chase Burns · RHP 1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.09 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams 64 C+ +370 · 5 0.263 89.7 9.4% 31.1%vs RHP 396 33.3% 0.0% 39.2% 35

2 Daylen Lile 52 C +500 WARM 38 0.169 88.2 8.0% 12.8%vs RHP 400 10.9% 25.0% 21.9% 35

3 Dylan Crews 50 C +500 · 50 0.150 90.7 9.0% 15.2%vs RHP 406 17.0% 7.7% 9.3% 32

4 Keibert Ruiz 45 D +625 COOL 77 0.168 88.6 6.1% 7.7%vs RHP 377 9.4% 0.0% 11.9% 27

5 Jacob Young 44 D — COOL 83 0.154 88.4 7.1% 16.7%vs RHP 396 7.5% 0.0% 9.7% 26

6 Nasim Nunez 25 D — COOL 201 0.039 84.6 1.8% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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