TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ CWS

Suppressed air · 0.98×

CLE @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:15p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.98× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Rhys Hoskins conv 22 · vs Kay ⟷ Munetaka Murakami conv 32 · vs Williams → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Anthony Kay LHP · CWS

leak 88

1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rhys Hoskins +425 C ●●●○○

2 Steven Kwan — D ●○○○○

3 Angel Martinez +625 D ●○○○○

FADE Gavin Williams RHP · CLE

leak 85

1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.81 · stingy — thin edge

1 Munetaka Murakami +320 C+ ●●●●●

2 Miguel Vargas +425 C+ ●●●●○

3 Andrew Benintendi +525 C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: Match 33.6% · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Williams Edge +320 0.289 · 93.9 · 14.7% 30.8% 33.6% F B O C+ 68

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Williams +425 0.235 · 90.7 · 12.6% 23.1% 31.2% F B O C+ 61

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Williams Edge +525 0.185 · 88.8 · 9.9% 25.0% 20.7% F B O C 50

· CLE Rhys Hoskins HOT vs Kay Edge +425 0.200 · 89.0 · 10.5% 20.0% 24.5% F B O C 54

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Williams Edge +390 0.228 · 88.9 · 11.6% 8.3% 16.6% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Williams +950 0.129 · 88.1 · 7.3% 23.1% 17.2% F B O D 40

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Williams Edge +750 0.130 · 87.7 · 8.3% 12.5% 8.3% F B O D 39

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Williams Edge +850 0.135 · 88.8 · 5.9% 8.3% 8.9% F B O D 36

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Kay — 0.058 · 83.5 · 1.6% 8.3% 5.8% F B O D 25

· CLE Angel Martinez vs Kay Edge +625 0.185 · 87.8 · 7.9% 0.0% 13.2% F B O D 42

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Kay Edge +400 0.154 · 89.2 · 6.9% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 39

· CLE Chase Delauter COOL vs Kay +575 0.161 · 91.3 · 7.4% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 42

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Williams Edge +850 0.146 · 87.1 · 7.3% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 37

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Kay Edge +850 0.122 · 86.5 · 5.0% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 35

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Kay — 0.147 · 88.4 · 6.0% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 40

· CWS Edgar Quero COOL vs Williams Edge — 0.041 · 90.4 · 4.9% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.4% ← leak BRK 27.5% OFF 14.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rhys Hoskins R Edge

12.1% 15.4% 13.3% 13.1% C 54 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

100

Angel Martinez S Edge

6.3% 14.9% 3.3% 7.4% D 42 +625

101

Chase Delauter L

8.6% 6.0% 1.6% 6.5% D 42 +575

122

Travis Bazzana L

4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9% D 40 —

123

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 39 +400

157

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.3% 4.5% 1.1% 3.0% D 35 +850

202

Steven Kwan L

0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.4% usage) carries Kay's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 50.6% BRK 49.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

20.9% 18.6% 19.9% C+ 68 +320

Miguel Vargas R

15.9% 12.4% 14.5% C+ 61 +425

Colson Montgomery L Edge

12.4% 11.9% 12.5% C 55 +390

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

12.8% 4.7% 9.0% C 50 +525

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

117

Chase Meidroth R

4.0% 6.3% 4.6% D 40 +950

130

Sam Antonacci L Edge

8.0% 5.6% 6.2% D 39 +750

148

Tristan Peters L Edge

5.8% 5.4% 4.8% D 37 +850

153

Braden Montgomery S Edge

3.1% 4.3% 3.2% D 36 +850

187

Edgar Quero S Edge

2.3% 0.0% 2.2% D 28 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Williams's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Hoskins Murakami Vargas Benintendi Meidroth

Legend

attack side — vs Kay fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Munetaka Murakami +320 · 68

Miguel Vargas +425 · 61

Andrew Benintendi +525 · 50

Rhys Hoskins +425 · 54

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:15p · roof unknown

Park 0.98× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Suppress · Combined 0.98× Unknown stadium — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Anthony Kay · LHP 1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins 54 C +425 HOT 28 0.200 89.0 10.5% 23.8%vs LHP 389 13.8% 20.0% 24.5% 8

2 Angel Martinez 42 D +625 WARM 100 0.185 87.8 7.9% 22.2%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 25

3 Chase Delauter 42 D +575 COOL 101 0.161 91.3 7.4% 13.3%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 31

4 Travis Bazzana 40 D — WARM 122 0.147 88.4 6.0% 10.0%vs LHP 396 11.1% 0.0% 7.8% 26

5 Jose Ramirez 39 D +400 COOL 123 0.154 89.2 6.9% 20.8%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 38

6 Brayan Rocchio 35 D +850 COOL 157 0.122 86.5 5.0% 10.7%vs LHP 386 7.3% 0.0% 8.0% 36

7 Steven Kwan 25 D — COOL 202 0.058 83.5 1.6% 0.0%vs LHP 381 1.9% 8.3% 5.8% 39

vs Gavin Williams · RHP 1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.81 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 68 C+ +320 · 4 0.289 93.9 14.7% 37.7%vs RHP 405 18.0% 30.8% 33.6% 32

2 Miguel Vargas 61 C+ +425 WARM 13 0.235 90.7 12.6% 16.9%vs RHP 392 20.4% 23.1% 31.2% 35

3 Colson Montgomery 55 C +390 COOL 27 0.228 88.9 11.6% 25.8%vs RHP 399 22.6% 8.3% 16.6% 29

4 Andrew Benintendi 50 C +525 · 46 0.185 88.8 9.9% 17.9%vs RHP 389 14.7% 25.0% 20.7% 24

5 Chase Meidroth 40 D +950 WARM 117 0.129 88.1 7.3% 15.9%vs RHP 381 8.2% 23.1% 17.2% 37

6 Sam Antonacci 39 D +750 COOL 130 0.130 87.7 8.3% 14.8%vs RHP 390 10.6% 12.5% 8.3% 34

7 Tristan Peters 37 D +850 COOL 148 0.146 87.1 7.3% 9.4%vs RHP 377 7.4% 0.0% 8.6% 26

8 Braden Montgomery 36 D +850 · 153 0.135 88.8 5.9% 17.6%vs RHP 371 7.1% 8.3% 8.9% 28

9 Edgar Quero 28 D — COOL 187 0.041 90.4 4.9% 0.0%vs RHP 389 4.1% 0.0% 6.4% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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