TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.68×

ATL @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 3:05p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 14 mph out 89°F Roof open

Hourly window

+17 ↑

3:05p

+17 ↑

4:05p

+17 ↑

5:05p

+16 ↑

6:05p

+14 ↑

7:05p

best window is early — 3:05p at +17

Best of game Matt Olson conv 42 · vs Cole ⟷ Austin Wells conv 16 · vs Sale → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Gerrit Cole RHP · NYY

leak 81

1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson +290 B ●●●●●

2 Ozzie Albies +425 D ●●●○○

3 Mike Yastrzemski +425 D ●●●○○

FADE Chris Sale LHP · ATL

leak 34

0.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.31 · stingy — thin edge

1 Austin Wells — D ●●●○○

2 Ben Rice +425 C+ ●●○○○

3 Trent Grisham +525 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: 15.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Cole Edge +290 0.280 · 92.6 · 11.7% 50.0% 34.0% F B O B 72

· NYY Ben Rice COOL vs Sale +425 0.289 · 92.0 · 9.5% 7.7% 19.4% F B O C+ 60

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Cole Edge +350 0.187 · 91.7 · 11.3% 0.0% 14.7% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Cole Edge +425 0.175 · 86.8 · 6.3% 23.1% 17.6% F B O D 47

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Cole Edge +425 0.150 · 90.3 · 8.2% 22.2% 17.7% F B O D 47

· NYY Austin Wells HOT vs Sale — 0.120 · 89.4 · 6.6% 20.0% 12.9% F B O D 40

· ATL Austin Riley HOT vs Cole +400 0.141 · 90.8 · 10.1% 15.4% 16.0% F B O D 48

· ATL Dominic Smith vs Cole Edge — 0.134 · 87.9 · 7.2% 14.3% 10.8% F B O D 42

· NYY Trent Grisham COOL vs Sale +525 0.168 · 90.4 · 7.4% 8.3% 10.1% F B O D 43

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Sale Edge — 0.151 · 83.9 · 4.9% 0.0% 17.3% F B O D 34

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Sale Edge +400 0.206 · 86.5 · 7.8% 0.0% 14.9% F B O D 47

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Cole +750 0.135 · 86.9 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 36

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon vs Sale — 0.160 · 91.3 · 7.9% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 42

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.5% ← leak BRK 32.6% OFF 14.9% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

17.2% 11.9% 13.2% 15.1% B 72 +290

Neutral · 1

Drake Baldwin L Edge

14.6% 19.4% 4.8% 14.3% C 53 +350

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Austin Riley R

13.4% 11.1% 2.9% 11.4% D 48 +400

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

8.3% 6.2% 6.7% 7.5% D 47 +425

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.7% 1.9% 3.0% 4.4% D 47 +425

105

Dominic Smith L Edge

6.0% 7.5% 2.6% 5.7% D 42 —

149

Mauricio Dubon R

3.0% 5.9% 5.3% 4.2% D 36 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.5% usage) carries Cole's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 49.3% ← leak BRK 39.1% OFF 11.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Ben Rice L

18.4% 12.4% 11.8% 15.4% C+ 60 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Paul Goldschmidt R Edge

14.0% 4.6% 9.1% 10.5% D 47 +400

Trent Grisham L

10.3% 8.5% 5.4% 9.3% D 43 +525

102

Ryan Mcmahon L

13.3% 4.5% 12.5% 10.8% D 42 —

118

Austin Wells L

9.1% 8.8% 0.0% 7.6% D 40 —

161

Jose Caballero R Edge

— — — — D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.3% usage) carries Sale's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Riley Yastrzemski Albies Rice Wells

Legend

attack side — vs Cole fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Matt Olson +290 · 72

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 3:05p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 14 mph out 89°F open

+17

↑

14 mph · out

85°F

3:05p · peak

+17

↑

14 mph · out

86°F

4:05p

+17

↑

14 mph · out

86°F

5:05p

+16

↑

13 mph · out

86°F

6:05p

+14

↑

11 mph · out

85°F

7:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.68× 89°F, wind 14 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gerrit Cole · RHP 1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 72 B +290 WARM 2 0.280 92.6 11.7% 33.3%vs RHP 407 24.8% 50.0% 34.0% 33

2 Drake Baldwin 53 C +350 COOL 33 0.187 91.7 11.3% 28.3%vs RHP 403 17.7% 0.0% 14.7% 40

3 Austin Riley 48 D +400 HOT 62 0.141 90.8 10.1% 17.2%vs RHP 407 9.6% 15.4% 16.0% 22

4 Mike Yastrzemski 47 D +425 WARM 64 0.150 90.3 8.2% 17.9%vs RHP 392 9.6% 22.2% 17.7% 14

5 Ozzie Albies 47 D +425 · 65 0.175 86.8 6.3% 13.9%vs RHP 386 14.7% 23.1% 17.6% 40

6 Dominic Smith 42 D — · 105 0.134 87.9 7.2% 15.4%vs RHP 392 8.4% 14.3% 10.8% 17

7 Mauricio Dubon 36 D +750 WARM 149 0.135 86.9 6.2% 11.8%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 42

vs Chris Sale · LHP 0.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.31 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice 60 C+ +425 COOL 16 0.289 92.0 9.5% 40.9%vs LHP 390 24.8% 7.7% 19.4% 29

2 Paul Goldschmidt 47 D +400 COOL 67 0.206 86.5 7.8% 31.0%vs LHP 390 16.2% 0.0% 14.9% 29

3 Trent Grisham 43 D +525 COOL 94 0.168 90.4 7.4% 14.3%vs LHP 388 11.1% 8.3% 10.1% 37

4 Ryan Mcmahon 42 D — · 102 0.160 91.3 7.9% 0.0%vs LHP 387 16.7% 0.0% 7.5% 23

5 Austin Wells 40 D — HOT 118 0.120 89.4 6.6% 11.8%vs LHP 387 10.1% 20.0% 12.9% 18

6 Jose Caballero 34 D — WARM 161 0.151 83.9 4.9% 25.0%vs LHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 17.3% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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