TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ TEX

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BAL @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 7:15p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 14 mph slight_out 96°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+4 ↑

6:15p

+6 ↑

7:15p

+6 ↑

8:15p

+7 ↑

9:15p

+8 ↑

10:15p

conditions build late — the 10:15p window peaks +8

Best of game Coby Mayo conv 25 · vs deGrom ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 31 · vs Bradish → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Jacob deGrom RHP · TEX

leak 82

1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · leakiest side of this game

1 Coby Mayo +500 C ●●●●○

2 Pete Alonso +350 C ●●●○○

3 Leody Taveras +750 D ●●○○○

FADE Kyle Bradish RHP · BAL

leak 67

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson +390 C+ ●●●●●

2 Ezequiel Duran +850 C ●●●○○

3 Brandon Nimmo +500 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: Match 31.9% · 14D pace 30.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Bradish Edge +390 0.247 · 91.7 · 9.5% 30.0% 31.9% F B O C+ 63

· BAL Coby Mayo vs deGrom +500 0.223 · 92.6 · 10.1% 25.0% 24.1% F B O C 56

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Bradish +850 0.183 · 88.7 · 7.3% 23.1% 22.2% F B O C 50

· BAL Pete Alonso vs deGrom +350 0.209 · 94.0 · 10.5% 16.7% 19.9% F B O C 57

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Bradish Edge +500 0.171 · 92.0 · 9.6% 15.4% 12.1% F B O C 50

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Bradish +425 0.225 · 89.8 · 8.3% 7.7% 16.4% F B O C 53

· TEX Jake Burger vs Bradish +475 0.183 · 90.2 · 9.5% 10.0% 13.6% F B O C 51

· TEX Corey Seager vs Bradish Edge +390 0.181 · 91.5 · 11.0% 0.0% 13.0% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 5 long shots

· BAL Leody Taveras vs deGrom Edge +750 0.127 · 87.5 · 6.2% 10.0% 13.9% F B O D 38

· BAL Gunnar Henderson vs deGrom Edge +425 0.174 · 89.6 · 7.8% 8.3% 12.1% F B O D 47

· BAL Colton Cowser COOL vs deGrom Edge +575 0.116 · 86.9 · 9.4% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 41

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Bradish Edge +850 0.136 · 87.5 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 40

· TEX Alejandro Osuna COOL vs Bradish Edge — 0.041 · 86.8 · 2.2% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 44.3% ← leak BRK 43.1% OFF 12.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Pete Alonso R

14.5% 8.9% 14.7% 12.9% C 57 +350

Coby Mayo R

10.2% 12.3% 18.2% 12.0% C 56 +500

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

7.9% 6.0% 7.4% 7.2% D 47 +425

112

Colton Cowser L Edge

15.3% 10.5% 2.3% 10.5% D 41 +575

136

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.7% 8.2% 0.0% 4.5% D 38 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (44.3% usage) carries deGrom's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.8% BRK 48.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Joc Pederson L Edge

13.8% 12.7% 11.1% C+ 63 +390

Wyatt Langford R

5.2% 12.5% 8.4% C 53 +425

Jake Burger R

10.3% 13.0% 11.2% C 51 +475

Corey Seager L Edge

13.9% 14.7% 14.8% C 51 +390

Ezequiel Duran R

8.2% 6.2% 6.5% C 50 +850

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

9.0% 17.6% 11.3% C 50 +500

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

119

Evan Carter L Edge

8.1% 4.8% 5.9% D 40 +850

188

Alejandro Osuna L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.6% D 27 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Bradish's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Pederson Duran Nimmo

Legend

attack side — vs deGrom fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Joc Pederson +390 · 63

Coby Mayo +500 · 56

Ezequiel Duran +850 · 50

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 6:15p · roof retractable

Park 1.05× Wind 14 mph slight_out 96°F retractable

↑

14 mph · slight_out

96°F

6:15p

↑

17 mph · slight_out

93°F

7:15p

↑

16 mph · slight_out

91°F

8:15p

↑

15 mph · slight_out

88°F

9:15p

↑

15 mph · slight_out

86°F

10:15p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.57× 96°F, wind 14 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jacob deGrom · RHP 1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.32 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 57 C +350 WARM 20 0.209 94.0 10.5% 27.3%vs RHP 401 18.3% 16.7% 19.9% 33

2 Coby Mayo 56 C +500 WARM 23 0.223 92.6 10.1% 11.8%vs RHP 407 16.3% 25.0% 24.1% 18

3 Gunnar Henderson 47 D +425 WARM 69 0.174 89.6 7.8% 16.4%vs RHP 390 15.0% 8.3% 12.1% 29

4 Colton Cowser 41 D +575 COOL 112 0.116 86.9 9.4% 17.8%vs RHP 417 12.1% 0.0% 9.3% 12

5 Leody Taveras 38 D +750 WARM 136 0.127 87.5 6.2% 15.0%vs RHP 409 3.8% 10.0% 13.9% 26

vs Kyle Bradish · RHP 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 63 C+ +390 · 7 0.247 91.7 9.5% 31.2%vs RHP 394 22.5% 30.0% 31.9% 29

2 Wyatt Langford 53 C +425 WARM 32 0.225 89.8 8.3% 21.4%vs RHP 397 17.1% 7.7% 16.4% 33

3 Jake Burger 51 C +475 WARM 39 0.183 90.2 9.5% 23.4%vs RHP 398 15.5% 10.0% 13.6% 25

4 Corey Seager 51 C +390 WARM 43 0.181 91.5 11.0% 24.3%vs RHP 394 15.8% 0.0% 13.0% 14

5 Ezequiel Duran 50 C +850 WARM 45 0.183 88.7 7.3% 22.9%vs RHP 393 13.7% 23.1% 22.2% 37

6 Brandon Nimmo 50 C +500 COOL 47 0.171 92.0 9.6% 13.4%vs RHP 400 10.5% 15.4% 12.1% 36

7 Evan Carter 40 D +850 COOL 119 0.136 87.5 6.9% 14.3%vs RHP 374 8.6% 0.0% 8.6% 28

8 Alejandro Osuna 27 D — COOL 188 0.041 86.8 2.2% 5.0%vs RHP 364 2.4% 0.0% 7.2% 13

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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