TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.47×

TOR @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 6:05p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.13× Wind 10 mph slight_out 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

+12 ↑

6:05p

+11 ↑

7:05p

+11 ↑

8:05p

+11 ↑

9:05p

+11 ↑

10:05p

best window is early — 6:05p at +12

Best of game Bryce Harper conv 33 · vs Scherzer ⟷ Jesús Sánchez conv 22 · vs Nola → edge: Bryce Harper

ATTACK Max Scherzer RHP · TOR

leak 98

2.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.70 · leakiest side of this game

1 Bryce Harper +255 B ●●●●●

2 Trea Turner +400 C ●●○○○

3 Kyle Schwarber +205 B ●●○○○

FADE Aaron Nola RHP · PHI

leak 97

2.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.38 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jesús Sánchez +400 C ●●●○○

2 George Springer +390 C ●●○○○

3 Kazuma Okamoto +320 C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Bryce Harper: Match 43.7% · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Bryce Harper ✶ vs Scherzer Edge +255 0.245 · 90.2 · 10.7% 23.1% 43.7% F B O B 71

· TOR Jesús Sánchez vs Nola Edge +400 0.166 · 90.8 · 10.5% 20.0% 23.9% F B O C 58

· TOR George Springer vs Nola +390 0.164 · 88.5 · 8.4% 15.4% 14.7% F B O C 54

· PHI Trea Turner vs Scherzer +400 0.150 · 88.7 · 8.0% 15.4% 13.5% F B O C 54

· PHI Kyle Schwarber COOL vs Scherzer Edge +205 0.277 · 93.2 · 13.0% 0.0% 27.0% F B O B 74

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Nola +320 0.210 · 90.5 · 11.2% 0.0% 20.5% F B O C+ 62

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Scherzer Edge +425 0.157 · 89.6 · 8.2% 7.7% 12.1% F B O C 52

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Scherzer Edge +400 0.170 · 89.6 · 9.3% 0.0% 15.4% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· TOR Ernie Clement vs Nola +700 0.128 · 84.9 · 4.9% 7.7% 9.4% F B O D 43

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Scherzer — 0.134 · — · 7.0% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 44

· PHI Alec Bohm COOL vs Scherzer +525 0.135 · 90.6 · 7.1% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 49

· TOR Nathan Lukes COOL vs Nola Edge +575 0.099 · 86.4 · 3.0% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 38

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Nola Edge +625 0.117 · 85.9 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 41

· PHI Justin Crawford vs Scherzer Edge +750 0.080 · 86.7 · 3.5% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 37

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Nola +950 0.115 · 86.1 · 5.8% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 42

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.4% ← leak BRK 33.8% OFF 15.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Kazuma Okamoto R

15.1% 7.4% 15.8% 12.9% C+ 62 +320

Jesús Sánchez L Edge

10.0% 19.6% 0.0% 11.4% C 58 +400

George Springer R

8.0% 5.7% 7.7% 7.2% C 54 +390

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Ernie Clement R

2.7% 2.4% 2.0% 2.5% D 43 +700

106

Myles Straw R

4.1% 0.0% 7.7% 3.5% D 42 +950

109

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.9% 2.3% 5.4% 3.6% D 41 +625

140

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.0% 1.9% 2.6% 0.9% D 38 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.4% usage) carries Nola's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 47.5% BRK 35.2% OFF 16.4% Overall Score

Prime targets · 2

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

16.5% 14.7% 26.9% 17.1% B 74 +205

Bryce Harper L Edge

11.7% 14.2% 6.5% 11.5% B 71 +255

Neutral · 3

Brandon Marsh L Edge

7.6% 14.1% 2.3% 8.7% C 56 +400

Trea Turner R

8.3% 4.3% 2.6% 6.4% C 54 +400

Bryson Stott L Edge

8.6% 4.4% 5.2% 6.8% C 52 +425

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Alec Bohm R

4.5% 5.1% 8.8% 5.1% D 49 +525

J.T. Realmuto R

4.1% 7.4% 5.6% 5.0% D 44 —

147

Justin Crawford L Edge

2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% D 37 +750

Read the columns: no single family leads Scherzer's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Sánchez Springer Schwarber Harper Turner

Legend

attack side — vs Scherzer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Bryce Harper +255 · 71

Jesús Sánchez +400 · 58

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 6:05p · roof open

Park 1.13× Wind 10 mph slight_out 85°F open

+12

↑

10 mph · slight_out

85°F

6:05p · peak

+11

↑

8 mph · out

85°F

7:05p

+11

↑

7 mph · out

84°F

8:05p

+11

↑

8 mph · out

82°F

9:05p

+11

↑

8 mph · out

80°F

10:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.47× 85°F, wind 10 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Aaron Nola · RHP 2.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.38 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 62 C+ +320 COOL 10 0.210 90.5 11.2% 30.2%vs RHP 397 17.7% 0.0% 20.5% 36

2 Jesús Sánchez 58 C +400 WARM 18 0.166 90.8 10.5% 21.4%vs RHP 398 11.3% 20.0% 23.9% 11

3 George Springer 54 C +390 · 29 0.164 88.5 8.4% 22.4%vs RHP 393 11.1% 15.4% 14.7% 42

4 Ernie Clement 43 D +700 · 95 0.128 84.9 4.9% 6.6%vs RHP 376 8.2% 7.7% 9.4% 47

5 Myles Straw 42 D +950 COOL 106 0.115 86.1 5.8% 5.6%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 29

6 Andres Gimenez 41 D +625 COOL 109 0.117 85.9 5.9% 9.8%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 33

7 Nathan Lukes 38 D +575 COOL 140 0.099 86.4 3.0% 11.9%vs RHP 378 5.5% 0.0% 9.9% 38

vs Max Scherzer · RHP 2.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.70 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber 74 B +205 COOL 1 0.277 93.2 13.0% 41.2%vs RHP 403 22.4% 0.0% 27.0% 20

2 Bryce Harper ✶ 71 B +255 · 3 0.245 90.2 10.7% 36.4%vs RHP 403 19.6% 23.1% 43.7% 36

3 Brandon Marsh 56 C +400 COOL 26 0.170 89.6 9.3% 20.6%vs RHP 393 12.4% 0.0% 15.4% 39

4 Trea Turner 54 C +400 · 30 0.150 88.7 8.0% 21.3%vs RHP 393 13.6% 15.4% 13.5% 48

5 Bryson Stott 52 C +425 WARM 37 0.157 89.6 8.2% 9.3%vs RHP 389 7.5% 7.7% 12.1% 33

6 Alec Bohm 49 D +525 COOL 56 0.135 90.6 7.1% 15.2%vs RHP 396 11.0% 0.0% 11.2% 45

7 J.T. Realmuto 44 D — WARM 78 0.134 — 7.0% 18.9%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 29

8 Justin Crawford 37 D +750 WARM 147 0.080 86.7 3.5% 5.0%vs RHP 382 2.4% 0.0% 9.4% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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