TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ SEA

Neutral air · 1.00×

TB @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 9:50p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 6 mph cross 77°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-3 ↑

6:50p

-4 ↑

7:50p

-5 ↑

8:50p

-5 ↑

9:50p

-4 ↑

10:50p

best window is early — 6:50p at -3

Best of game Dominic Canzone conv 23 · vs Jax ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 29 · vs Kirby → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Griffin Jax RHP · TB

leak 95

1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.77 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dominic Canzone +425 C+ ●●●●○

2 Randy Arozarena +525 D ●●●○○

3 Julio Rodríguez +500 D ●●●○○

FADE George Kirby RHP · SEA

leak 74

1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero +320 C+ ●●●●○

2 Richie Palacios +950 D ●●○○○

3 Cedric Mullins +525 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Kirby +320 0.273 · 93.0 · 10.3% 25.0% 33.5% F B O C+ 64

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Jax Edge +425 0.248 · 91.8 · 11.3% 15.4% 30.9% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Jax +525 0.171 · 91.1 · 8.5% 23.1% 18.0% F B O D 49

· SEA Julio Rodríguez COOL vs Jax +500 0.163 · 89.8 · 8.9% 23.1% 16.4% F B O D 49

· SEA Cal Raleigh HOT vs Jax Edge +350 0.145 · 88.7 · 10.9% 18.2% 16.7% F B O D 48

· TB Richie Palacios vs Kirby Edge +950 0.116 · 85.9 · 5.7% 12.5% 11.2% F B O D 35

· SEA Colt Emerson vs Jax Edge +850 0.156 · 86.5 · 6.9% 7.7% 12.6% F B O D 42

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Kirby Edge +525 0.152 · 88.0 · 5.4% 10.0% 9.7% F B O D 39

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Kirby Edge +525 0.147 · 91.0 · 8.7% 10.0% 9.0% F B O D 43

· SEA Cole Young vs Jax Edge +700 0.147 · 88.8 · 6.8% 7.7% 10.8% F B O D 41

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Kirby +625 0.158 · 90.8 · 7.3% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 38

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Jax Edge +700 0.095 · 87.6 · 6.3% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 34

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Kirby — 0.107 · 85.8 · 4.2% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 31

· TB Chandler Simpson vs Kirby Edge — 0.058 · 84.0 · — 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 18

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Kirby Edge +950 0.066 · 85.3 · 4.4% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.1% ← leak BRK 38.9% OFF 7.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

17.3% 11.2% 7.8% 13.8% C+ 64 +320

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

10.6% 13.0% 5.2% 10.1% D 43 +525

127

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.0% 3.4% 8.3% 3.8% D 39 +525

134

Yandy Diaz R

5.6% 10.5% 4.4% 7.1% D 38 +625

156

Richie Palacios L Edge

5.6% 2.1% 3.4% 4.4% D 35 +950

180

Nick Fortes R

3.0% 1.9% 0.0% 2.3% D 31 —

192

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 27 +950

210

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 18 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.1% usage) carries Kirby's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 42.1% ← leak BRK 34.6% OFF 23.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dominic Canzone L Edge

16.8% 15.0% 8.2% 14.2% C+ 60 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Randy Arozarena R

8.1% 7.8% 7.8% 8.0% D 49 +525

Julio Rodríguez R

9.1% 8.3% 7.3% 8.7% D 49 +500

Cal Raleigh S Edge

11.3% 15.6% 15.0% 13.1% D 48 +350

104

Colt Emerson L Edge

5.8% 5.0% 3.8% 5.2% D 42 +850

110

Cole Young L Edge

4.5% 9.2% 1.9% 5.1% D 41 +700

163

Josh Naylor L Edge

4.0% 7.4% 1.8% 4.4% D 34 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.1% usage) carries Jax's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Canzone Arozarena Rodríguez Raleigh

Legend

attack side — vs Jax fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Junior Caminero +320 · 64

Randy Arozarena +525 · 49

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 6:50p · roof retractable

Park 1.00× Wind 6 mph cross 77°F retractable

-3

↑

6 mph · cross

77°F

6:50p · peak

-4

↑

7 mph · cross

74°F

7:50p

-5

↑

6 mph · in

71°F

8:50p

-5

↑

5 mph · in

68°F

9:50p

-4

↑

4 mph · in

64°F

10:50p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.00× 77°F, wind 6 mph N (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs George Kirby · RHP 1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 64 C+ +320 WARM 6 0.273 93.0 10.3% 40.6%vs RHP 412 26.8% 25.0% 33.5% 35

2 Jonathan Aranda 43 D +525 · 98 0.147 91.0 8.7% 17.3%vs RHP 387 12.1% 10.0% 9.0% 33

3 Cedric Mullins 39 D +525 COOL 127 0.152 88.0 5.4% 20.6%vs RHP 389 13.3% 10.0% 9.7% 24

4 Yandy Diaz 38 D +625 · 134 0.158 90.8 7.3% 20.9%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 34

5 Richie Palacios 35 D +950 WARM 156 0.116 85.9 5.7% 14.3%vs RHP 398 5.0% 12.5% 11.2% 14

6 Nick Fortes 31 D — COOL 180 0.107 85.8 4.2% 14.3%vs RHP 396 4.8% 0.0% 8.1% 14

7 Taylor Walls 27 D +950 COOL 192 0.066 85.3 4.4% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 19

8 Chandler Simpson 18 D — · 210 0.058 84.0 — 3.1%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 40

vs Griffin Jax · RHP 1.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.77 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 60 C+ +425 COOL 15 0.248 91.8 11.3% 26.3%vs RHP 403 16.3% 15.4% 30.9% 39

2 Randy Arozarena 49 D +525 · 53 0.171 91.1 8.5% 24.0%vs RHP 391 12.4% 23.1% 18.0% 41

3 Julio Rodríguez 49 D +500 COOL 57 0.163 89.8 8.9% 17.6%vs RHP 407 17.2% 23.1% 16.4% 40

4 Cal Raleigh 48 D +350 HOT 59 0.145 88.7 10.9% 12.3%vs RHP 395 13.2% 18.2% 16.7% 21

5 Colt Emerson 42 D +850 · 104 0.156 86.5 6.9% 26.3%vs RHP 376 10.2% 7.7% 12.6% 28

6 Cole Young 41 D +700 WARM 110 0.147 88.8 6.8% 17.6%vs RHP 387 11.6% 7.7% 10.8% 47

7 Josh Naylor 34 D +700 WARM 163 0.095 87.6 6.3% 12.1%vs RHP 390 6.3% 0.0% 8.9% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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