TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ SD

Playable air · 1.07×

HOU @ SD

Petco Park · 7:15p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 11 mph cross 87°F Roof open

Hourly window

-6 ↑

4:15p

-6 ↑

5:15p

-5 ↑

6:15p

-5 ↑

7:15p

-5 ↑

8:15p

the 6:15p window peaks -5

Best of game Jackson Merrill conv 12 · vs Lambert ⟷ Jeremy Peña conv 24 · vs King → edge: Christian Walker

ATTACK Peter Lambert RHP · HOU

leak 71

0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Merrill +525 D ●●○○○

2 Manny Machado +390 D ●●○○○

3 Ty France +525 D ●○○○○

FADE Michael King RHP · SD

leak 57

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jeremy Peña +625 D ●●●●○

2 Christian Walker +400 C ●●●○○

3 Yainer Diaz +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Christian Walker: 9.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 18.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Christian Walker ✶ vs King +400 0.220 · 89.4 · 9.1% 18.2% 19.7% F B O C 51

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs King Edge +255 0.313 · 94.5 · 12.4% 0.0% 15.2% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs King +625 0.197 · 88.2 · 6.9% 25.0% 22.5% F B O D 46

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs King +750 0.153 · 87.7 · 6.8% 18.2% 13.0% F B O D 39

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Lambert Edge +525 0.155 · 90.1 · 8.4% 15.4% 7.8% F B O D 41

· HOU Cam Smith vs King +700 0.155 · 89.4 · 9.6% 9.1% 12.7% F B O D 43

· SD Manny Machado vs Lambert +390 0.211 · 90.7 · 8.5% 7.7% 13.6% F B O D 47

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs King +525 0.163 · 86.2 · 7.0% 9.1% 9.6% F B O D 39

· SD Ty France COOL vs Lambert +525 0.233 · 92.2 · 8.4% 0.0% 15.5% F B O D 47

· SD Gavin Sheets vs Lambert Edge +625 0.176 · 87.7 · 6.8% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 37

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs King +750 0.154 · 85.6 · 6.8% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 33

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs King — 0.112 · 85.9 · 3.2% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 26

· SD Xander Bogaerts COOL vs Lambert +625 0.100 · 88.3 · 6.1% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 30

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Lambert Edge +850 0.071 · 87.4 · 5.4% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 46.8% ← leak OFF 28.5% BRK 24.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

18.9% 10.3% 23.0% 18.2% C 56 +255

Christian Walker R

8.7% 15.2% 10.0% 9.8% C 51 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jeremy Peña R

3.8% 12.5% 7.7% 5.7% D 46 +625

Cam Smith R

8.5% 18.5% 14.5% 10.8% D 43 +700

125

Yainer Diaz R

6.6% 7.1% 3.2% 5.5% D 39 +750

128

Isaac Paredes R

7.5% 2.2% 3.4% 5.7% D 39 +525

167

Jose Altuve R

6.4% 0.0% 5.1% 5.4% D 33 +750

193

Christian Vazquez R

1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% D 26 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.8% usage) carries King's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 50.2% ← leak BRK 26.3% OFF 22.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Ty France R

10.9% 11.4% 6.9% 10.6% D 47 +525

Manny Machado R

13.2% 6.7% 7.3% 10.7% D 47 +390

113

Jackson Merrill L Edge

12.3% 11.3% 5.8% 10.6% D 41 +525

145

Gavin Sheets L Edge

9.7% 4.3% 1.9% 6.9% D 37 +625

186

Xander Bogaerts R

7.1% 2.5% 3.6% 5.6% D 30 +625

195

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

4.7% 3.3% 3.8% 4.3% D 26 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.2% usage) carries Lambert's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Peña Diaz

Legend

attack side — vs Lambert fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jeremy Peña +625 · 46

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 4:15p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 11 mph cross 87°F open

-6

↑

11 mph · cross

87°F

4:15p

-6

↑

10 mph · cross

85°F

5:15p

-5

↑

9 mph · cross

82°F

6:15p · peak

-5

↑

8 mph · cross

80°F

7:15p

-5

↑

7 mph · cross

78°F

8:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.07× 87°F, wind 11 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael King · RHP 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 56 C +255 COOL 22 0.313 94.5 12.4% 27.4%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 32

2 Christian Walker ✶ 51 C +400 · 41 0.220 89.4 9.1% 25.7%vs RHP 391 18.3% 18.2% 19.7% 29

3 Jeremy Peña 46 D +625 WARM 73 0.197 88.2 6.9% 30.8%vs RHP 385 15.5% 25.0% 22.5% 36

4 Cam Smith 43 D +700 · 97 0.155 89.4 9.6% 18.0%vs RHP 411 12.6% 9.1% 12.7% 29

5 Yainer Diaz 39 D +750 · 125 0.153 87.7 6.8% 26.7%vs RHP 398 10.7% 18.2% 13.0% 31

6 Isaac Paredes 39 D +525 COOL 128 0.163 86.2 7.0% 18.3%vs RHP 377 11.8% 9.1% 9.6% 40

7 Jose Altuve 33 D +750 COOL 167 0.154 85.6 6.8% 22.9%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 43

8 Christian Vazquez 26 D — COOL 193 0.112 85.9 3.2% 12.9%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 7

vs Peter Lambert · RHP 0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 47 D +525 COOL 66 0.233 92.2 8.4% 31.7%vs RHP 394 16.4% 0.0% 15.5% 38

2 Manny Machado 47 D +390 · 68 0.211 90.7 8.5% 28.4%vs RHP 397 18.9% 7.7% 13.6% 37

3 Jackson Merrill 41 D +525 WARM 113 0.155 90.1 8.4% 18.8%vs RHP 410 13.8% 15.4% 7.8% 41

4 Gavin Sheets 37 D +625 · 145 0.176 87.7 6.8% 28.8%vs RHP 397 9.8% 0.0% 9.9% 18

5 Xander Bogaerts 30 D +625 COOL 186 0.100 88.3 6.1% 15.1%vs RHP 396 7.4% 0.0% 7.2% 33

6 Jake Cronenworth 26 D +850 COOL 195 0.071 87.4 5.4% 12.0%vs RHP 389 1.5% 0.0% 6.0% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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