TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ BOS

Fenway Park is live · 1.34×

ATH @ BOS

Fenway Park · 4:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 7 mph out 90°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

4:10p

+3 ↑

5:10p

+5 ↑

6:10p

+5 ↑

7:10p

+6 ↑

8:10p

conditions build late — the 8:10p window peaks +6

Best of game Wilyer Abreu conv 25 · vs Jump ⟷ Tyler Soderstrom conv 14 · vs Bennett → edge: Wilyer Abreu

ATTACK Gage Jump LHP · ATH

leak 73

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.03 · leakiest side of this game

1 Wilyer Abreu +400 D ●●●●○

2 Ceddanne Rafaela +500 D ●●●●○

3 Jarren Duran — D ●●●○○

FADE Jake Bennett LHP · BOS

leak 3

0.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.62 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tyler Soderstrom +625 D ●●○○○

2 Lawrence Butler +750 D ●●○○○

3 Henry Bolte +700 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Wilyer Abreu: 13.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Willson Contreras vs Jump Edge +255 0.252 · 90.7 · 9.3% 9.1% 20.9% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· BOS Wilyer Abreu ✶ vs Jump +400 0.203 · 90.0 · 8.8% 30.8% 18.4% F B O D 49

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela vs Jump Edge +500 0.185 · 86.6 · 5.8% 30.8% 18.2% F B O D 42

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs Jump — 0.149 · 89.6 · 7.7% 23.1% 10.9% F B O D 41

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom vs Bennett +625 0.214 · 90.6 · 7.2% 15.4% 12.5% F B O D 44

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Bennett +750 0.120 · 89.2 · 6.3% 16.7% 7.3% F B O D 32

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Jump Edge +525 0.192 · 89.0 · 7.3% 7.7% 11.6% F B O D 41

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Bennett Edge +700 0.087 · 90.6 · 6.5% 7.7% 8.7% F B O D 30

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Jump Edge +625 0.155 · 84.3 · 3.9% 7.7% 8.6% F B O D 32

· BOS Masataka Yoshida vs Jump — 0.126 · 88.3 · 4.4% 7.7% 6.4% F B O D 32

· ATH Jonah Heim vs Bennett Edge +525 0.200 · 87.4 · 6.3% 0.0% 13.5% F B O D 38

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Bennett — 0.150 · 89.9 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 33

· ATH Jacob Wilson vs Bennett Edge +750 0.122 · 84.1 · 3.9% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 27

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Bennett — 0.079 · 86.3 · 2.5% 0.0% 4.2% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 64.1% ← leak OFF 25.4% BRK 10.4% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Tyler Soderstrom L

8.9% 0.0% 16.4% 9.3% D 44 +625

137

Jonah Heim S Edge

8.3% 7.3% 4.2% 7.0% D 38 +525

169

Carlos Cortes L

7.8% 8.7% 4.4% 7.2% D 33 —

173

Lawrence Butler L

7.2% 4.0% 9.5% 6.9% D 32 +750

185

Henry Bolte R Edge

7.4% 5.0% 7.3% 7.1% D 30 +700

190

Jacob Wilson R Edge

4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% D 27 +750

209

Jeff Mcneil L

0.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.1% D 21 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.1% usage) carries Bennett's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 50.9% ← leak BRK 41.3% OFF 7.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Willson Contreras R Edge

12.3% 14.8% 21.9% 14.1% C 53 +255

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Wilyer Abreu L

12.3% 15.2% 12.3% 13.0% D 49 +400

103

Ceddanne Rafaela R Edge

3.8% 6.1% 13.0% 5.8% D 42 +500

108

Andruw Monasterio R Edge

7.8% 8.8% 15.4% 8.8% D 41 +525

114

Jarren Duran L

12.1% 7.7% 8.1% 10.0% D 41 —

172

Caleb Durbin R Edge

3.0% 1.3% 3.3% 2.6% D 32 +625

177

Masataka Yoshida L

4.6% 0.0% 2.4% 3.4% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.9% usage) carries Jump's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Soderstrom Contreras Abreu Rafaela Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Jump fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Wilyer Abreu +400 · 49

Ceddanne Rafaela +500 · 42

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 4:10p · roof open

Park 0.90× Wind 7 mph out 90°F open

↑

7 mph · out

88°F

4:10p

↑

6 mph · out

89°F

5:10p

↑

8 mph · out

86°F

6:10p

↑

9 mph · out

84°F

7:10p

↑

10 mph · out

82°F

8:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.34× 90°F, wind 7 mph W (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jake Bennett · LHP 0.63 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.62 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Tyler Soderstrom 44 D +625 WARM 80 0.214 90.6 7.2% 29.2%vs LHP 405 15.8% 15.4% 12.5% 34

2 Jonah Heim 38 D +525 · 137 0.200 87.4 6.3% 36.0%vs LHP 414 11.1% 0.0% 13.5% 39

3 Carlos Cortes 33 D — COOL 169 0.150 89.9 6.3% 13.0% 403 5.0% 0.0% 7.6% 6

4 Lawrence Butler 32 D +750 WARM 173 0.120 89.2 6.3% 14.3%vs LHP 407 5.2% 16.7% 7.3% 30

5 Henry Bolte 30 D +700 · 185 0.087 90.6 6.5% 37.5%vs LHP 420 8.6% 7.7% 8.7% 25

6 Jacob Wilson 27 D +750 · 190 0.122 84.1 3.9% 8.0%vs LHP 386 7.1% 0.0% 6.1% 37

7 Jeff Mcneil 21 D — COOL 209 0.079 86.3 2.5% 0.0%vs LHP 377 3.0% 0.0% 4.2% 30

vs Gage Jump · LHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.03 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 53 C +255 WARM 31 0.252 90.7 9.3% 25.9%vs LHP 406 20.0% 9.1% 20.9% 15

2 Wilyer Abreu ✶ 49 D +400 WARM 52 0.203 90.0 8.8% 15.2%vs LHP 408 16.1% 30.8% 18.4% 38

3 Ceddanne Rafaela 42 D +500 WARM 103 0.185 86.6 5.8% 18.5%vs LHP 380 13.5% 30.8% 18.2% 43

4 Andruw Monasterio 41 D +525 COOL 108 0.192 89.0 7.3% 21.7%vs LHP 390 15.0% 7.7% 11.6% 39

5 Jarren Duran 41 D — COOL 114 0.149 89.6 7.7% 6.7%vs LHP 400 13.9% 23.1% 10.9% 39

6 Caleb Durbin 32 D +625 COOL 172 0.155 84.3 3.9% 15.0%vs LHP 375 9.3% 7.7% 8.6% 44

7 Masataka Yoshida 32 D — WARM 177 0.126 88.3 4.4% 8.2% 368 10.7% 7.7% 6.4% 40

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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