TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ PIT

Playable air · 1.07×

NYM @ PIT

PNC Park · 6:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind 6 mph slight_out 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

6:40p

+0 ↑

7:40p

+0 ↑

8:40p

+1 ↑

9:40p

+2 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +2

Best of game Francisco Lindor conv 21 · vs Chandler ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 24 · vs Proxy → edge: Brandon Lowe

ATTACK Bubba Chandler RHP · PIT

leak 73

0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.55 · leakiest side of this game

1 Francisco Lindor +400 D ●●●○○

2 Marcus Semien +750 D ●●●○○

3 Carson Benge — D ●●○○○

FADE NYM Bullpen Proxy · NYM

leak 54

1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe +305 C+ ●●●●○

2 Bryan Reynolds +425 D ●○○○○

3 Jake Mangum — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Brandon Lowe: Match 24.6% · 14D pace 23.1%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Brandon Lowe ✶ vs Proxy +305 0.231 · 91.1 · 12.6% 23.1% 24.6% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· NYM Francisco Lindor COOL vs Chandler Edge +400 0.192 · 91.6 · 7.6% 21.4% 19.7% F B O D 48

· NYM Marcus Semien vs Chandler +750 0.144 · 86.5 · 6.6% 27.3% 12.6% F B O D 42

· NYM Carson Benge vs Chandler Edge — 0.143 · 89.3 · 6.9% 14.3% 10.0% F B O D 41

· NYM Brett Baty vs Chandler Edge +575 0.111 · 89.7 · 7.3% 9.1% 10.3% F B O D 38

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Proxy +425 0.175 · 90.9 · 11.1% 7.1% 10.7% F B O D 49

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Proxy — 0.076 · 85.5 · 1.2% 7.7% 6.8% F B O D 25

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Chandler +750 0.113 · 89.3 · 6.2% 7.1% 6.1% F B O D 36

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Chandler +500 0.180 · 90.1 · 10.2% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 43

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Proxy +525 0.168 · 86.9 · 8.1% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 42

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Chandler Edge +700 0.137 · — · 7.0% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 34

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Proxy +950 0.090 · 86.3 · 2.9% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 28

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Proxy — 0.065 · 87.2 · 2.3% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 54.3% ← leak BRK 29.3% OFF 16.4% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.2% 6.9% 7.5% 9.7% D 48 +400

Francisco Alvarez R

17.8% 16.4% 15.0% 16.9% D 43 +500

107

Marcus Semien R

10.0% 2.3% 7.7% 7.3% D 42 +750

111

Carson Benge L Edge

7.7% 8.9% 5.6% 7.6% D 41 —

139

Brett Baty L Edge

8.4% 12.2% 4.2% 8.3% D 38 +575

152

Bo Bichette R

4.8% 10.9% 0.0% 6.2% D 36 +750

162

A.J. Ewing L Edge

8.8% 10.2% 2.8% 8.0% D 34 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.3% usage) carries Chandler's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for NYM Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lindor Semien Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Chandler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Brandon Lowe +305 · 60

Francisco Lindor +400 · 48

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.97× Wind 6 mph slight_out 79°F open

↑

6 mph · slight_out

79°F

6:40p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

78°F

7:40p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

76°F

8:40p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

75°F

9:40p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

74°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.07× 79°F, wind 6 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bubba Chandler · RHP 0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.55 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor 48 D +400 COOL 58 0.192 91.6 7.6% 15.8%vs RHP 393 12.0% 21.4% 19.7% 35

2 Francisco Alvarez 43 D +500 WARM 85 0.180 90.1 10.2% 27.0%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 18

3 Marcus Semien 42 D +750 WARM 107 0.144 86.5 6.6% 17.0%vs RHP 391 12.8% 27.3% 12.6% 33

4 Carson Benge 41 D — · 111 0.143 89.3 6.9% 15.4%vs RHP 401 9.8% 14.3% 10.0% 35

5 Brett Baty 38 D +575 WARM 139 0.111 89.7 7.3% 12.7%vs RHP 396 6.6% 9.1% 10.3% 15

6 Bo Bichette 36 D +750 COOL 152 0.113 89.3 6.2% 9.4%vs RHP 388 8.8% 7.1% 6.1% 47

7 A.J. Ewing 34 D +700 WARM 162 0.137 — 7.0% 13.9%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 40

vs NYM Bullpen Proxy 1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe ✶ 60 C+ +305 · 21 0.231 91.1 12.6% 19.5% 393 16.2% 23.1% 24.6% 36

2 Bryan Reynolds 49 D +425 · 74 0.175 90.9 11.1% 17.2% 409 12.3% 7.1% 10.7% 38

3 Spencer Horwitz 42 D +525 COOL 131 0.168 86.9 8.1% 11.5% 395 11.1% 0.0% 9.5% 15

4 Nick Gonzales 28 D +950 WARM 203 0.090 86.3 2.9% 7.6% 397 7.2% 0.0% 7.0% 49

5 Jake Mangum 25 D — WARM 206 0.076 85.5 1.2% 6.4% 384 4.1% 7.7% 6.8% 38

6 Jared Triolo 25 D — COOL 207 0.065 87.2 2.3% 2.7% 419 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 19

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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