TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ MIL

Suppressed air · 0.91×

MIN @ MIL

American Family Field · 7:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 7 mph slight_out 77°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+2 ↑

6:10p

+0 ↑

7:10p

+0 ↑

8:10p

+0 ↑

9:10p

+0 ↑

10:10p

best window is early — 6:10p at +2

Best of game Royce Lewis conv 24 · vs Gasser ⟷ Jake Bauers conv 22 · vs Bradley → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Robert Gasser LHP · MIL

leak 87

1.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · leakiest side of this game

1 Royce Lewis +370 C ●●●●○

2 Trevor Larnach — D ●●●○○

3 Josh Bell +500 D ●●○○○

FADE Taj Bradley RHP · MIN

leak 84

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Bauers +370 C ●●●○○

2 Jackson Chourio +400 C ●●●○○

3 Brice Turang +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: 13.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Gasser Edge +370 0.192 · 90.3 · 9.4% 27.3% 20.8% F B O C 51

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ vs Bradley Edge +370 0.233 · 92.6 · 11.2% 16.7% 26.6% F B O C 56

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs Bradley +400 0.193 · 92.2 · 11.3% 23.1% 15.4% F B O C 51

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Gasser +500 0.234 · 92.5 · 8.9% 8.3% 15.2% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Gasser — 0.167 · 87.5 · 7.3% 22.2% 17.6% F B O D 43

· MIN Josh Bell vs Gasser Edge +500 0.167 · 90.1 · 8.2% 20.0% 12.3% F B O D 44

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Gasser Edge +950 0.097 · 84.7 · 4.7% 20.0% 8.7% F B O D 31

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Bradley Edge +575 0.185 · 90.5 · 8.6% 7.7% 12.6% F B O D 44

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Gasser Edge +750 0.173 · 87.6 · 4.9% 9.1% 10.2% F B O D 39

· MIL William Contreras vs Bradley +525 0.128 · 89.8 · 8.3% 9.1% 7.4% F B O D 37

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Bradley Edge +575 0.162 · 92.8 · 11.3% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 43

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Bradley Edge +575 0.139 · 88.6 · 9.3% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 38

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Gasser Edge +700 0.112 · 89.5 · 6.7% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 32

· MIL Joey Ortiz COOL vs Bradley — 0.116 · 87.9 · 6.0% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 32

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Gasser Edge +950 0.076 · 87.0 · 3.6% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 66.2% ← leak BRK 26.3% OFF 7.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Royce Lewis R Edge

15.1% 8.1% 8.7% 12.3% C 51 +370

Kody Clemens L

8.7% 20.0% 11.1% 11.7% C 51 +500

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Josh Bell S Edge

10.5% 12.9% 5.7% 10.0% D 44 +500

Trevor Larnach L

7.9% 9.3% 5.7% 7.9% D 43 —

126

Brooks Lee S Edge

6.8% 0.0% 1.2% 3.6% D 39 +750

171

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.5% 11.8% 6.2% 6.6% D 32 +700

179

Luke Keaschall R Edge

4.5% 2.3% 0.0% 3.3% D 31 +950

194

Austin Martin R Edge

2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% D 26 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (66.2% usage) carries Gasser's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 70.6% ← leak OFF 20.3% BRK 9.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jake Bauers L Edge

13.8% 12.9% 13.8% 13.7% C 56 +370

Jackson Chourio R

13.5% 3.4% 15.8% 13.0% C 51 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Brice Turang L Edge

9.9% 1.8% 9.0% 8.1% D 44 +575

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

16.9% 7.1% 11.1% 13.9% D 43 +575

141

Christian Yelich L Edge

8.3% 12.5% 10.3% 9.3% D 38 +575

143

William Contreras R

8.2% 0.0% 8.5% 7.5% D 37 +525

175

Joey Ortiz R

3.3% 0.0% 5.9% 3.9% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (70.6% usage) carries Bradley's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lewis Bell Larnach Keaschall Bauers Chourio

Legend

attack side — vs Gasser fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Royce Lewis +370 · 51

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 6:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.91× Wind 7 mph slight_out 77°F retractable

↑

7 mph · slight_out

77°F

6:10p · peak

↑

7 mph · slight_out

75°F

7:10p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

73°F

8:10p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

71°F

9:10p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

69°F

10:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.91× 77°F, wind 7 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Robert Gasser · LHP 1.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Royce Lewis 51 C +370 WARM 40 0.192 90.3 9.4% 25.0%vs LHP 400 17.8% 27.3% 20.8% 38

2 Kody Clemens 51 C +500 COOL 42 0.234 92.5 8.9% 28.6%vs LHP 390 16.7% 8.3% 15.2% 40

3 Josh Bell 44 D +500 WARM 81 0.167 90.1 8.2% 10.7%vs LHP 405 11.2% 20.0% 12.3% 31

4 Trevor Larnach 43 D — WARM 89 0.167 87.5 7.3% 25.0%vs LHP 397 9.9% 22.2% 17.6% 22

5 Brooks Lee 39 D +750 COOL 126 0.173 87.6 4.9% 13.8%vs LHP 369 14.3% 9.1% 10.2% 30

6 Victor Caratini 32 D +700 COOL 171 0.112 89.5 6.7% 13.3%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 18

7 Luke Keaschall 31 D +950 WARM 179 0.097 84.7 4.7% 4.3%vs LHP 373 6.1% 20.0% 8.7% 31

8 Austin Martin 26 D +950 COOL 194 0.076 87.0 3.6% 3.9%vs LHP 392 1.6% 0.0% 6.6% 21

vs Taj Bradley · RHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 56 C +370 · 24 0.233 92.6 11.2% 35.1%vs RHP 402 19.8% 16.7% 26.6% 26

2 Jackson Chourio 51 C +400 · 44 0.193 92.2 11.3% 18.0%vs RHP 401 17.1% 23.1% 15.4% 43

3 Brice Turang 44 D +575 COOL 79 0.185 90.5 8.6% 27.1%vs RHP 407 11.6% 7.7% 12.6% 38

4 Garrett Mitchell 43 D +575 WARM 92 0.162 92.8 11.3% 25.8%vs RHP 415 7.4% 0.0% 10.9% 25

5 Christian Yelich 38 D +575 COOL 141 0.139 88.6 9.3% 14.3%vs RHP 404 6.5% 0.0% 8.1% 30

6 William Contreras 37 D +525 · 143 0.128 89.8 8.3% 18.5%vs RHP 417 9.6% 9.1% 7.4% 35

7 Joey Ortiz 32 D — COOL 175 0.116 87.9 6.0% 12.1%vs RHP 395 5.4% 0.0% 6.8% 13

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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