TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ SF

Oracle Park is live · 1.40×

DET @ SF

Oracle Park · 7:15p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.87× Wind 10 mph out 88°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

4:15p

+8 ↑

5:15p

+7 ↑

6:15p

+5 ↑

7:15p

+5 ↑

8:15p

best window is early — 4:15p at +8

Best of game Dillon Dingler conv 32 · vs Roupp ⟷ Rafael Devers conv 21 · vs Proxy → edge: Dillon Dingler

ATTACK Landen Roupp RHP · SF

leak 75

0.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dillon Dingler +700 C ●●●●●

2 Kevin Mcgonigle +700 D ●●●●○

3 Gleyber Torres +950 D ●●●○○

FADE DET Bullpen Proxy · DET

leak 40

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rafael Devers +350 C ●●●○○

2 Jung Hoo Lee +950 D ●●○○○

3 Bryce Eldridge +425 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dillon Dingler: 11.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 36.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Dillon Dingler ✶ COOL vs Roupp +700 0.258 · 89.3 · 7.5% 36.4% 27.6% F B O C 53

· SF Rafael Devers vs Proxy +350 0.226 · 92.4 · 11.0% 23.1% 18.2% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Roupp Edge +700 0.146 · 88.0 · 5.8% 40.0% 9.6% F B O D 36

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Roupp +950 0.136 · 86.2 · 6.1% 27.3% 12.9% F B O D 35

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Proxy +950 0.146 · 86.8 · 2.5% 16.7% 10.5% F B O D 29

· DET Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Roupp +525 0.201 · 89.7 · 8.0% 9.1% 12.3% F B O D 43

· DET Riley Greene COOL vs Roupp Edge +425 0.182 · 90.8 · 8.4% 9.1% 9.7% F B O D 41

· SF Bryce Eldridge COOL vs Proxy +425 0.184 · 92.4 · 11.8% 8.3% 9.6% F B O D 47

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Proxy +500 0.187 · 87.5 · 8.4% 7.7% 9.2% F B O D 42

· DET Colt Keith COOL vs Roupp Edge +750 0.150 · 88.6 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 32

· DET Zach Mckinstry vs Roupp Edge — 0.109 · 85.5 · 3.5% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 24

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs Proxy +950 0.112 · 86.1 · 2.6% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.5% ← leak BRK 25.9% OFF 20.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dillon Dingler R

13.0% 10.3% 7.1% 11.6% C 53 +700

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Spencer Torkelson R

14.1% 11.3% 13.6% 13.4% D 43 +525

115

Riley Greene L Edge

16.0% 16.9% 9.3% 14.9% D 41 +425

154

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

8.5% 7.0% 1.8% 7.1% D 36 +700

159

Gleyber Torres R

10.2% 5.0% 0.0% 8.1% D 35 +950

178

Colt Keith L Edge

6.9% 14.0% 3.4% 7.3% D 32 +750

204

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

3.7% 1.8% 0.0% 2.7% D 24 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.5% usage) carries Roupp's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for DET Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Dingler Mcgonigle Torres Devers Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Roupp fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Dillon Dingler +700 · 53

Rafael Devers +350 · 53

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 4:15p · roof open

Park 0.87× Wind 10 mph out 88°F open

↑

10 mph · out

88°F

4:15p · peak

↑

11 mph · out

87°F

5:15p

↑

10 mph · out

83°F

6:15p

↑

9 mph · out

79°F

7:15p

↑

9 mph · out

75°F

8:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.40× 88°F, wind 10 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Landen Roupp · RHP 0.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler ✶ 53 C +700 COOL 34 0.258 89.3 7.5% 33.3%vs RHP 398 21.5% 36.4% 27.6% 40

2 Spencer Torkelson 43 D +525 COOL 99 0.201 89.7 8.0% 24.6%vs RHP 394 16.1% 9.1% 12.3% 39

3 Riley Greene 41 D +425 COOL 115 0.182 90.8 8.4% 17.9%vs RHP 399 12.4% 9.1% 9.7% 32

4 Kevin Mcgonigle 36 D +700 COOL 154 0.146 88.0 5.8% 8.5%vs RHP 396 20.0% 40.0% 9.6% 43

5 Gleyber Torres 35 D +950 WARM 159 0.136 86.2 6.1% 17.6%vs RHP 389 10.0% 27.3% 12.9% 36

6 Colt Keith 32 D +750 COOL 178 0.150 88.6 5.9% 12.5%vs RHP 389 6.2% 0.0% 7.4% 31

7 Zach Mckinstry 24 D — WARM 204 0.109 85.5 3.5% 7.1%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 32

vs DET Bullpen Proxy 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 53 C +350 · 51 0.226 92.4 11.0% 18.9% 398 18.6% 23.1% 18.2% 40

2 Bryce Eldridge 47 D +425 COOL 84 0.184 92.4 11.8% 17.2% 396 18.4% 8.3% 9.6% 28

3 Willy Adames 42 D +500 COOL 132 0.187 87.5 8.4% 13.3% 388 15.2% 7.7% 9.2% 35

4 Jung Hoo Lee 29 D +950 WARM 199 0.146 86.8 2.5% 9.0% 382 5.7% 16.7% 10.5% 39

5 Drew Gilbert 25 D +950 HOT 208 0.112 86.1 2.6% 7.0% 398 3.0% 0.0% 5.9% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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