TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ MIA

Suppressed air · 0.93×

LAA @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 4:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.84× Wind 12 mph in 90°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-14 ↑

4:10p

-13 ↑

5:10p

-13 ↑

6:10p

-13 ↑

7:10p

-12 ↑

8:10p

conditions build late — the 8:10p window peaks -12

Best of game Mike Trout conv 10 · vs Alcantara ⟷ Kyle Stowers conv 25 · vs Ureña → edge: Kyle Stowers

ATTACK Sandy Alcantara RHP · MIA

leak 71

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · leakiest side of this game

1 Mike Trout +475 D ●●○○○

2 Zach Neto +575 D ●○○○○

3 Vaughn Grissom +850 D ●○○○○

FADE Walbert Ureña RHP · LAA

leak 17

0.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.33 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Stowers +425 D ●●●●○

2 Jakob Marsee +950 D ●○○○○

3 Javier Sanoja — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Stowers: 12.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· MIA Kyle Stowers ✶ vs Ureña Edge +425 0.221 · 92.1 · 7.9% 30.8% 20.0% F B O D 47

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Alcantara +475 0.200 · 90.3 · 9.9% 8.3% 11.6% F B O D 45

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs Alcantara +575 0.196 · 89.5 · 8.5% 8.3% 10.7% F B O D 43

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Ureña Edge +950 0.103 · 87.1 · 4.4% 11.1% 5.6% F B O D 26

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Ureña — 0.134 · 86.8 · 3.2% 11.1% 5.4% F B O D 27

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Alcantara +850 0.146 · 88.7 · 6.2% 8.3% 8.0% F B O D 34

· MIA Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Ureña +500 0.226 · 91.8 · 8.1% 0.0% 16.0% F B O D 40

· LAA Nolan Schanuel HOT vs Alcantara Edge — 0.111 · 87.4 · 3.6% 8.3% 6.1% F B O D 26

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Ureña Edge +700 0.210 · 91.6 · 9.1% 0.0% 14.4% F B O D 43

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Alcantara +950 0.129 · 87.5 · 6.5% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 31

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Alcantara Edge +750 0.146 · 89.2 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 34

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Ureña +950 0.155 · 89.3 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 32

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Ureña Edge — 0.107 · 87.0 · 4.6% 0.0% 5.1% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 59.7% ← leak OFF 20.7% BRK 19.6% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Mike Trout R

15.5% 12.5% 25.6% 16.9% D 45 +475

Zach Neto R

14.8% 10.5% 8.4% 12.4% D 43 +575

164

Vaughn Grissom R

8.1% 0.0% 6.8% 6.6% D 34 +850

165

Josh Lowe L Edge

13.2% 6.9% 2.7% 9.2% D 34 +750

181

Oswald Peraza R

6.4% 12.0% 7.1% 7.4% D 31 +950

198

Nolan Schanuel L Edge

2.9% 0.0% 2.6% 2.3% D 26 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.7% usage) carries Alcantara's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.6% ← leak OFF 32.0% BRK 15.4% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Kyle Stowers L Edge

10.8% 7.9% 17.9% 12.1% D 47 +425

Owen Caissie L Edge

17.4% 21.4% 7.9% 15.6% D 43 +700

116

Heriberto Hernández R

11.8% 16.7% 12.1% 12.3% D 40 +500

174

Otto Lopez R

9.3% 1.8% 4.4% 6.5% D 32 +950

191

Javier Sanoja R

2.0% 0.0% 2.4% 1.9% D 27 —

196

Jakob Marsee L Edge

3.1% 8.1% 2.1% 3.6% D 26 +950

200

Xavier Edwards S Edge

4.7% 3.0% 2.7% 3.9% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.6% usage) carries Ureña's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stowers

Legend

attack side — vs Alcantara fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kyle Stowers +425 · 47

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 4:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.84× Wind 12 mph in 90°F retractable

-14

↑

12 mph · in

89°F

4:10p

-13

↑

11 mph · in

89°F

5:10p

-13

↑

12 mph · in

87°F

6:10p

-13

↑

12 mph · in

85°F

7:10p

-12

↑

12 mph · in

84°F

8:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.93× 90°F, wind 12 mph ESE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sandy Alcantara · RHP 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 45 D +475 COOL 76 0.200 90.3 9.9% 23.7%vs RHP 409 16.0% 8.3% 11.6% 30

2 Zach Neto 43 D +575 COOL 93 0.196 89.5 8.5% 18.4%vs RHP 402 16.5% 8.3% 10.7% 30

3 Vaughn Grissom 34 D +850 COOL 164 0.146 88.7 6.2% 18.9%vs RHP 390 10.0% 8.3% 8.0% 33

4 Josh Lowe 34 D +750 · 165 0.146 89.2 7.3% 16.0%vs RHP 396 9.6% 0.0% 7.6% 12

5 Oswald Peraza 31 D +950 WARM 181 0.129 87.5 6.5% 9.1%vs RHP 386 6.1% 0.0% 7.8% 7

6 Nolan Schanuel 26 D — HOT 198 0.111 87.4 3.6% 8.5%vs RHP 372 7.2% 8.3% 6.1% 40

vs Walbert Ureña · RHP 0.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.33 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers ✶ 47 D +425 WARM 63 0.221 92.1 7.9% 25.4%vs RHP 396 13.8% 30.8% 20.0% 34

2 Owen Caissie 43 D +700 COOL 86 0.210 91.6 9.1% 27.9%vs RHP 398 14.9% 0.0% 14.4% 7

3 Heriberto Hernández 40 D +500 COOL 116 0.226 91.8 8.1% 17.1%vs RHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 29

4 Otto Lopez 32 D +950 COOL 174 0.155 89.3 5.8% 11.7%vs RHP 402 7.1% 0.0% 7.3% 52

5 Javier Sanoja 27 D — WARM 191 0.134 86.8 3.2% 2.8%vs RHP 383 5.3% 11.1% 5.4% 35

6 Jakob Marsee 26 D +950 COOL 196 0.103 87.1 4.4% 8.5%vs RHP 380 6.6% 11.1% 5.6% 23

7 Xavier Edwards 25 D — COOL 200 0.107 87.0 4.6% 3.0%vs RHP 396 4.5% 0.0% 5.1% 42

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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