TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ KC

Kauffman Stadium is live · 1.19×

CHC @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 7:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 6 mph cross 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

6:10p

-2 ↑

7:10p

-2 ↑

8:10p

-1 ↑

9:10p

+0 ↑

10:10p

conditions build late — the 10:10p window peaks +0

Best of game Carter Jensen conv 18 · vs Holmes ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 24 · vs Lugo → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Clay Holmes RHP · NYM

leak 34

0.51 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carter Jensen +500 D ●●●○○

2 Jac Caglianone +425 D ●●○○○

3 Michael Massey +750 D ●●○○○

FADE Seth Lugo RHP · KC

leak 25

1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +330 C+ ●●●●○

2 Nico Hoerner — D ●●●○○

3 Seiya Suzuki +400 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: 12.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 21.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ HOT vs Lugo Edge +330 0.261 · 90.4 · 10.3% 21.4% 25.8% F B O C+ 62

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Lugo +400 0.206 · 88.9 · 9.4% 15.4% 15.0% F B O C 52

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Lugo Edge +500 0.192 · 89.2 · 10.0% 0.0% 11.9% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· — Carter Jensen vs Holmes Edge +500 0.186 · 90.6 · 7.7% 18.2% 18.6% F B O D 47

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Lugo — 0.104 · 86.0 · 3.2% 23.1% 9.8% F B O D 33

· — Jac Caglianone COOL vs Holmes Edge +425 0.199 · 93.0 · 9.1% 16.7% 13.5% F B O D 49

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Lugo +525 0.136 · 88.2 · 6.1% 15.4% 8.6% F B O D 40

· — Michael Massey COOL vs Holmes Edge +750 0.163 · 89.9 · 6.0% 10.0% 9.5% F B O D 39

· CHC Dansby Swanson COOL vs Lugo +475 0.188 · 89.5 · 8.0% 7.1% 12.0% F B O D 47

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Lugo — 0.116 · 87.6 · 7.2% 11.1% 7.2% F B O D 38

· CHC Michael Busch vs Lugo Edge +500 0.148 · 88.3 · 9.1% 7.1% 8.3% F B O D 45

· CHC Michael Conforto COOL vs Lugo Edge +525 0.220 · 91.5 · 9.9% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 49

· — Salvador Perez vs Holmes +500 0.160 · 88.9 · 7.7% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 37

· — Isaac Collins COOL vs Holmes Edge +950 0.128 · 88.3 · 5.8% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.3% ← leak BRK 36.2% OFF 8.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

10.8% 13.3% 14.3% 12.2% C+ 62 +330

Seiya Suzuki R

11.0% 9.4% 9.1% 10.2% C 52 +400

Ian Happ S Edge

14.6% 15.6% 1.5% 11.5% C 50 +500

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Michael Conforto L Edge

9.7% 17.6% 13.6% 11.7% D 49 +525

Dansby Swanson R

7.0% 6.6% 12.1% 7.4% D 47 +475

Michael Busch L Edge

12.8% 4.2% 2.3% 9.4% D 45 +500

120

Alex Bregman R

2.9% 7.2% 6.2% 4.4% D 40 +525

135

Carson Kelly R

6.8% 4.3% 5.9% 6.0% D 38 —

168

Nico Hoerner R

1.1% 1.0% 2.3% 1.2% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.3% usage) carries Lugo's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 57.5% ← leak BRK 27.8% OFF 14.6% Overall Score

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jac Caglianone L Edge

12.7% 18.0% 10.9% 14.1% D 49 +425

Carter Jensen L Edge

10.6% 9.5% 10.0% 10.1% D 47 +500

129

Michael Massey L Edge

7.7% 5.8% 2.1% 6.2% D 39 +750

146

Salvador Perez R

13.5% 6.7% 8.2% 10.0% D 37 +500

166

Isaac Collins S Edge

5.6% 10.0% 2.6% 5.7% D 34 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.5% usage) carries Holmes's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Hoerner Caglianone Jensen

Legend

attack side — vs Holmes fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Pete Crow-Armstrong +330 · 62

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 6:10p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 6 mph cross 85°F open

-1

↑

6 mph · cross

85°F

6:10p

-2

↑

5 mph · cross

83°F

7:10p

-2

↑

6 mph · cross

83°F

8:10p

-1

↑

7 mph · cross

82°F

9:10p

↑

8 mph · cross

82°F

10:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.19× 85°F, wind 6 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Seth Lugo · RHP 1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 62 C+ +330 HOT 9 0.261 90.4 10.3% 23.2%vs RHP 395 19.7% 21.4% 25.8% 38

2 Seiya Suzuki 52 C +400 · 36 0.206 88.9 9.4% 22.6%vs RHP 405 15.8% 15.4% 15.0% 38

3 Ian Happ 50 C +500 COOL 48 0.192 89.2 10.0% 22.7%vs RHP 404 16.4% 0.0% 11.9% 28

4 Michael Conforto 49 D +525 COOL 55 0.220 91.5 9.9% 15.9%vs RHP 399 7.3% 0.0% 12.6% 14

5 Dansby Swanson 47 D +475 COOL 70 0.188 89.5 8.0% 16.9%vs RHP 403 12.2% 7.1% 12.0% 34

6 Michael Busch 45 D +500 · 75 0.148 88.3 9.1% 14.5%vs RHP 401 12.7% 7.1% 8.3% 51

7 Alex Bregman 40 D +525 WARM 120 0.136 88.2 6.1% 15.5%vs RHP 387 9.6% 15.4% 8.6% 46

8 Carson Kelly 38 D — COOL 135 0.116 87.6 7.2% 6.9%vs RHP 413 7.3% 11.1% 7.2% 29

9 Nico Hoerner 33 D — WARM 168 0.104 86.0 3.2% 8.2%vs RHP 381 6.1% 23.1% 9.8% 46

vs Clay Holmes · RHP 0.51 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 49 D +425 COOL 54 0.199 93.0 9.1% 28.9%vs RHP 416 13.7% 16.7% 13.5% 41

2 Carter Jensen 47 D +500 · 71 0.186 90.6 7.7% 17.6%vs RHP 396 15.4% 18.2% 18.6% 24

3 Michael Massey 39 D +750 COOL 129 0.163 89.9 6.0% 8.3%vs RHP 401 6.5% 10.0% 9.5% 36

4 Salvador Perez 37 D +500 · 146 0.160 88.9 7.7% 19.1%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 38

5 Isaac Collins 34 D +950 COOL 166 0.128 88.3 5.8% 8.7%vs RHP 394 6.1% 0.0% 6.9% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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