8
HRs allowed
7.1%
HR rate (pool)
12.5%
Overall HR/FB
3.73
FIP
3.85
xFIP
-0.12
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
46
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 46th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
15.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
77.9%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 106.5 EV · 399 ft
max EV allowed 111.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 2 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Clay Holmes.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
50.9%
85.5
4.0°
3
-1.7
Sweeper Breaking
18.0%
76.1
11.3°
0
-1.5
Changeup Offspeed
14.1%
86.9
1.4°
0
-1.3
Cutter Hard
9.2%
78.3
2.6°
1
+0.8
Curveball Breaking
7.2%
83.7
4.2°
0
-1.4
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups113
HRs allowed (pool)8
Pool HR rate7.1%
Pool HR/game day0.62
Top-15 matchups8
HRs to top-153
Overall HR/FB12.5% 46
HR/9—
FIP3.73 36
xFIP3.85
FIP − xFIP-0.12 38
Barrel% allowed15.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed77.9%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-30
Sinker
Hard · 50.9% usage
-1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.5 mph
Avg launch angle4.0°
HRs allowed3
Pitches589
Sweeper
Breaking · 18.0% usage
-1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.1 mph
Avg launch angle11.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches208
Changeup
Offspeed · 14.1% usage
-1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.9 mph
Avg launch angle1.4°
HRs allowed0
Pitches163
Cutter
Hard · 9.2% usage
+0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.3 mph
Avg launch angle2.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches107
Curveball
Breaking · 7.2% usage
-1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.7 mph
Avg launch angle4.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches83
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Clay Holmes.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
8 allowed · scored pool
avg 106.5 EV · 399 ft
2 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 13 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-25
8
1
105.4
2026-08-19
9
0
110.0
2026-08-14
8
0
108.8
2026-08-08
8
1
111.9
2026-05-15
9
1
106.1
2026-05-09
9
0
106.7
2026-05-03
9
0
108.4
2026-04-28
9
0
108.4
2026-04-22
9
1
107.6
2026-04-15
8
2
108.0
2026-04-10
9
1
106.5
2026-04-04
9
0
103.7
2026-03-30
9
1
110.3
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Clay Holmes isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Clay Holmes isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
36
3
8%
8
2
25%
17
1
6%
9
1
11%
8
1
12%
17
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 8. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Clay Holmes
How many home runs has Clay Holmes allowed this season?
Clay Holmes has allowed 8 home runs across 13 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Clay Holmes?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Clay Holmes include Ben Rice (1), Bryce Harper (1), Byron Buxton (1) and 25 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.