6
HRs allowed
7.5%
HR rate (pool)
13.3%
Overall HR/FB
3.91
FIP
3.91
xFIP
+0.00
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
57
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 57th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
79.4%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 106.4 EV · 394 ft
max EV allowed 110.3
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 2 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Clay Holmes.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
50.5%
84.9
5.2°
2
-1.6
Sweeper Breaking
19.0%
76.2
13.7°
0
-2.2
Changeup Offspeed
14.6%
87.7
-1.9°
0
-1.5
Curveball Breaking
8.8%
84.5
4.2°
0
-1.3
Cutter Hard
7.0%
78.6
2.2°
1
+3.6
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups80
HRs allowed (pool)6
Pool HR rate7.5%
Pool HR/game day0.67
Top-15 matchups7
HRs to top-153
Overall HR/FB13.3% 57
HR/9—
FIP3.91 44
xFIP3.91
FIP − xFIP+0.00 48
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed79.4%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Sinker
Hard · 50.5% usage
-1.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.9 mph
Avg launch angle5.2°
HRs allowed2
Pitches418
Sweeper
Breaking · 19.0% usage
-2.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.2 mph
Avg launch angle13.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches157
Changeup
Offspeed · 14.6% usage
-1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.7 mph
Avg launch angle-1.9°
HRs allowed0
Pitches121
Curveball
Breaking · 8.8% usage
-1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.5 mph
Avg launch angle4.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches73
Cutter
Hard · 7.0% usage
+3.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.6 mph
Avg launch angle2.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches58
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Clay Holmes.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
6 allowed · scored pool
avg 106.4 EV · 394 ft
2 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 9 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-05-15
9
1
106.1
2026-05-09
9
0
106.7
2026-05-03
9
0
108.4
2026-04-28
9
0
108.4
2026-04-22
9
1
107.6
2026-04-15
8
2
108.0
2026-04-10
9
1
106.5
2026-04-04
9
0
103.7
2026-03-30
9
1
110.3
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Clay Holmes isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.