TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ STL

Suppressed air · 0.98×

COL @ STL

Busch Stadium · 7:15p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.82× Wind 6 mph cross 87°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

6:15p

-6 ↑

7:15p

-6 ↑

8:15p

-6 ↑

9:15p

-5 ↑

10:15p

the 6:15p window peaks -5

Best of game Alec Burleson conv 11 · vs Freeland ⟷ Mickey Moniak conv 28 · vs Liberatore → edge: Mickey Moniak

ATTACK Kyle Freeland LHP · COL

leak 89

1.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.68 · leakiest side of this game

1 Alec Burleson +475 D ●●○○○

2 José Fermín — D ●○○○○

3 Nathan Church — D ●○○○○

FADE Matthew Liberatore LHP · STL

leak 79

1.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.63 · stingy — thin edge

1 Mickey Moniak — C ●●●●○

2 Willi Castro +625 D ●●●●○

3 Hunter Goodman +305 C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Mickey Moniak: Match 26.4% · 14D pace 30.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Mickey Moniak ✶ vs Liberatore — 0.293 · 89.4 · 9.7% 30.0% 26.4% F B O C 57

· COL Hunter Goodman COOL vs Liberatore Edge +305 0.293 · 90.5 · 11.8% 11.1% 26.6% F B O C+ 61

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Freeland Edge +320 0.206 · 93.1 · 11.6% 0.0% 14.0% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· COL Willi Castro vs Liberatore Edge +625 0.160 · 87.7 · 8.4% 37.5% 13.4% F B O D 43

· STL Alec Burleson vs Freeland +475 0.193 · 91.8 · 11.0% 8.3% 13.4% F B O D 48

· STL José Fermín vs Freeland Edge — 0.118 · 86.5 · 4.8% 11.1% 7.0% F B O D 31

· COL Ezequiel Tovar vs Liberatore Edge +750 0.127 · 87.5 · 7.4% 11.1% 6.1% F B O D 35

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Freeland — 0.130 · 86.2 · 8.5% 9.1% 6.2% F B O D 36

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Liberatore — 0.197 · 84.9 · 6.3% 0.0% 13.6% F B O D 39

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Liberatore +850 0.168 · 83.9 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 35

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Freeland Edge +475 0.134 · 89.2 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 32

· COL Kyle Karros COOL vs Liberatore Edge +750 0.156 · 89.6 · 8.1% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 38

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Liberatore — 0.107 · 89.6 · 4.0% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 27

· COL Tyler Freeman COOL vs Liberatore Edge — 0.067 · 87.6 · 3.3% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 23

· STL Jj Wetherholt COOL vs Freeland +575 0.139 · 89.7 · 8.6% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 37

· STL Masyn Winn COOL vs Freeland Edge +850 0.079 · 87.9 · 5.6% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 44.5% BRK 40.4% OFF 14.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Hunter Goodman R Edge

18.9% 14.9% 10.3% 16.5% C+ 61 +305

Mickey Moniak L

9.3% 22.7% 2.2% 10.7% C 57 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Willi Castro S Edge

10.6% 6.2% 5.9% 8.4% D 43 +625

124

Jake Mccarthy L

5.6% 1.5% 6.5% 4.8% D 39 —

142

Kyle Karros R Edge

7.6% 4.8% 11.5% 7.3% D 38 +750

155

Tj Rumfield L

5.7% 2.0% 5.6% 4.5% D 35 +850

158

Ezequiel Tovar R Edge

5.6% 7.1% 8.3% 6.4% D 35 +750

189

Troy Johnston L

2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 1.9% D 27 —

205

Tyler Freeman R Edge

2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% D 23 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Liberatore's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 54.1% ← leak BRK 31.7% OFF 14.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R Edge

13.4% 11.7% 14.7% 13.0% C 53 +320

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Alec Burleson L

11.7% 12.3% 10.5% 11.6% D 48 +475

144

Jj Wetherholt L

9.6% 4.5% 2.0% 7.2% D 37 +575

151

Nathan Church L

8.0% 6.7% 5.2% 6.9% D 36 —

170

Ivan Herrera R Edge

5.6% 5.2% 6.8% 5.6% D 32 +475

184

José Fermín R Edge

2.6% 2.4% 0.0% 2.2% D 31 —

197

Masyn Winn R Edge

3.4% 2.2% 3.2% 3.0% D 26 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.1% usage) carries Freeland's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Moniak Castro

Legend

attack side — vs Freeland fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Mickey Moniak — · 57

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 6:15p · roof open

Park 0.82× Wind 6 mph cross 87°F open

-5

↑

6 mph · cross

87°F

6:15p · peak

-6

↑

7 mph · cross

85°F

7:15p

-6

↑

7 mph · cross

83°F

8:15p

-6

↑

8 mph · cross

81°F

9:15p

-5

↑

8 mph · cross

79°F

10:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.98× 87°F, wind 6 mph SE (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Matthew Liberatore · LHP 1.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.63 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman 61 C+ +305 COOL 14 0.293 90.5 11.8% 34.8%vs LHP 411 24.0% 11.1% 26.6% 18

2 Mickey Moniak ✶ 57 C — WARM 19 0.293 89.4 9.7% 18.2%vs LHP 417 18.4% 30.0% 26.4% 27

3 Willi Castro 43 D +625 WARM 90 0.160 87.7 8.4% 12.0%vs LHP 411 11.6% 37.5% 13.4% 22

4 Jake Mccarthy 39 D — COOL 124 0.197 84.9 6.3% 25.0%vs LHP 415 13.3% 0.0% 13.6% 43

5 Kyle Karros 38 D +750 COOL 142 0.156 89.6 8.1% 4.5%vs LHP 417 10.1% 0.0% 6.9% 23

6 Tj Rumfield 35 D +850 COOL 155 0.168 83.9 6.4% 8.3%vs LHP 410 6.7% 0.0% 9.3% 35

7 Ezequiel Tovar 35 D +750 WARM 158 0.127 87.5 7.4% 7.4%vs LHP 408 7.9% 11.1% 6.1% 23

8 Troy Johnston 27 D — COOL 189 0.107 89.6 4.0% 4.8%vs LHP 415 1.2% 0.0% 6.8% 18

9 Tyler Freeman 23 D — COOL 205 0.067 87.6 3.3% 11.1%vs LHP 369 1.9% 0.0% 6.4% 20

vs Kyle Freeland · LHP 1.76 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.68 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 53 C +320 COOL 35 0.206 93.1 11.6% 35.3%vs LHP 406 16.5% 0.0% 14.0% 34

2 Alec Burleson 48 D +475 · 60 0.193 91.8 11.0% 9.4%vs LHP 402 14.5% 8.3% 13.4% 35

3 Jj Wetherholt 37 D +575 COOL 144 0.139 89.7 8.6% 12.5%vs LHP 391 16.7% 0.0% 6.0% 36

4 Nathan Church 36 D — COOL 151 0.130 86.2 8.5% 20.0%vs LHP 384 8.9% 9.1% 6.2% 30

5 Ivan Herrera 32 D +475 WARM 170 0.134 89.2 7.6% 26.1%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 41

6 José Fermín 31 D — WARM 184 0.118 86.5 4.8% 13.0%vs LHP 388 6.2% 11.1% 7.0% 34

7 Masyn Winn 26 D +850 COOL 197 0.079 87.9 5.6% 0.0%vs LHP 390 3.7% 0.0% 5.5% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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