TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.20×

LAD @ AZ

Chase Field · 8:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 2 mph in 107°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+0 ↑

5:10p

-7 ↑

6:10p

-14 ↑

7:10p

-18 ↑

8:10p

-3 ↑

9:10p

best window is early — 5:10p at +0

Best of game Shohei Ohtani conv 27 · vs Pfaadt ⟷ Nolan Arenado conv 22 · vs Yamamoto → edge: Shohei Ohtani

ATTACK Brandon Pfaadt RHP · AZ

leak 92

0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · leakiest side of this game

1 Shohei Ohtani +255 C+ ●●●●○

2 Max Muncy +350 C ●●●○○

3 Kyle Tucker +575 D ●●○○○

FADE Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHP · LAD

leak 74

1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Arenado +850 D ●●●○○

2 Geraldo Perdomo — D ●●○○○

3 Corbin Carroll +500 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Shohei Ohtani: 16.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Shohei Ohtani ✶ vs Pfaadt Edge +255 0.257 · 93.5 · 11.7% 25.0% 29.1% F B O C+ 62

· LAD Max Muncy vs Pfaadt Edge +350 0.241 · 90.5 · 10.6% 15.4% 25.7% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Yamamoto +850 0.183 · 85.2 · 7.0% 25.0% 19.5% F B O D 43

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Pfaadt Edge +575 0.136 · 89.0 · 7.3% 18.2% 11.0% F B O D 38

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Pfaadt +500 0.183 · 89.0 · 7.8% 16.7% 9.6% F B O D 44

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.122 · 87.3 · 4.8% 15.4% 7.1% F B O D 31

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Yamamoto Edge +500 0.225 · 91.8 · 9.0% 7.7% 13.2% F B O D 48

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Yamamoto Edge +525 0.191 · 90.3 · 8.1% 7.7% 10.8% F B O D 43

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Yamamoto +850 0.140 · 89.4 · 7.0% 9.1% 8.2% F B O D 36

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Pfaadt +525 0.160 · 89.3 · 8.7% 0.0% 13.4% F B O D 38

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Pfaadt Edge +500 0.175 · 90.0 · 8.6% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 43

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Pfaadt +575 0.164 · 90.6 · 7.8% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 40

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Yamamoto Edge — 0.139 · 87.7 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 31

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt vs Yamamoto +950 0.109 · 88.0 · 7.0% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.1% ← leak BRK 29.7% OFF 14.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

20.8% 10.5% 16.0% 16.7% C+ 62 +255

Max Muncy L Edge

14.8% 8.6% 6.7% 11.5% C 56 +350

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Andy Pages R

7.0% 8.1% 9.1% 7.5% D 44 +500

Freddie Freeman L Edge

9.2% 9.1% 9.1% 9.2% D 43 +500

121

Mookie Betts R

9.1% 3.3% 6.5% 7.5% D 40 +575

133

Teoscar Hernandez R

9.0% 12.8% 7.1% 9.5% D 38 +525

138

Kyle Tucker L Edge

9.8% 3.3% 1.5% 6.6% D 38 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.1% usage) carries Pfaadt's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.1% ← leak OFF 27.1% BRK 19.7% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Corbin Carroll L Edge

10.1% 11.3% 15.0% 11.9% D 48 +500

Ketel Marte S Edge

13.7% 3.8% 7.2% 9.9% D 43 +525

Nolan Arenado R

10.5% 6.2% 2.2% 7.3% D 43 +850

150

Gabriel Moreno R

6.9% 8.8% 7.4% 7.3% D 36 +850

176

Ryan Waldschmidt R

9.5% 0.0% 5.6% 7.3% D 32 +950

182

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.2% 1.5% 3.2% 3.4% D 31 —

183

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.3% 2.4% 1.8% 3.4% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.1% usage) carries Yamamoto's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Ohtani Muncy Pages Tucker Arenado

Legend

attack side — vs Pfaadt fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Shohei Ohtani +255 · 62

Nolan Arenado +850 · 43

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 5:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 2 mph in 107°F retractable

↑

2 mph · in

107°F

5:10p · peak

-7

↑

9 mph · in

104°F

6:10p

-14

↑

15 mph · in

101°F

7:10p

-18

↑

19 mph · in

99°F

8:10p

-3

↑

13 mph · cross

97°F

9:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.20× 107°F, wind 2 mph NE (in) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brandon Pfaadt · RHP 0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani ✶ 62 C+ +255 · 8 0.257 93.5 11.7% 24.2%vs RHP 403 19.8% 25.0% 29.1% 32

2 Max Muncy 56 C +350 WARM 25 0.241 90.5 10.6% 25.3%vs RHP 411 18.8% 15.4% 25.7% 27

3 Andy Pages 44 D +500 COOL 82 0.183 89.0 7.8% 21.0%vs RHP 390 14.2% 16.7% 9.6% 39

4 Freddie Freeman 43 D +500 COOL 91 0.175 90.0 8.6% 16.4%vs RHP 398 11.6% 0.0% 11.2% 41

5 Mookie Betts 40 D +575 COOL 121 0.164 90.6 7.8% 17.5%vs RHP 389 9.6% 0.0% 7.9% 42

6 Teoscar Hernandez 38 D +525 COOL 133 0.160 89.3 8.7% 19.6%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 33

7 Kyle Tucker 38 D +575 WARM 138 0.136 89.0 7.3% 11.6%vs RHP 395 7.4% 18.2% 11.0% 30

vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto · RHP 1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 48 D +500 · 61 0.225 91.8 9.0% 16.9%vs RHP 401 13.4% 7.7% 13.2% 40

2 Ketel Marte 43 D +525 COOL 87 0.191 90.3 8.1% 13.9%vs RHP 412 14.3% 7.7% 10.8% 36

3 Nolan Arenado 43 D +850 · 96 0.183 85.2 7.0% 20.4%vs RHP 392 15.0% 25.0% 19.5% 32

4 Gabriel Moreno 36 D +850 COOL 150 0.140 89.4 7.0% 14.0%vs RHP 400 8.6% 9.1% 8.2% 38

5 Ryan Waldschmidt 32 D +950 · 176 0.109 88.0 7.0% 4.5%vs RHP 426 3.7% 0.0% 6.6% 27

6 Ildemaro Vargas 31 D — · 182 0.139 87.7 4.8% 8.6%vs RHP 399 4.7% 0.0% 7.2% 25

7 Geraldo Perdomo 31 D — WARM 183 0.122 87.3 4.8% 10.8%vs RHP 383 7.8% 15.4% 7.1% 46

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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