Susceptible Pitchers
The most HR-prone arms in baseball right now - a top-50 composite ranking using official season HR/IP, FanGraphs season stats, LongDong scored-pool results, and weekly report movement.
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-06-21T11:00:24-04:00
HR Susceptibility Rankings · 2026-06-21
| # | Pitcher | 7d Rank |
Tier
Based on composite susceptibility score. 🔥 Extreme: 75+ ⚠️ High: 55–74 📊 Elevated: 35–54 📉 Moderate: <35 |
Score
Composite 0–100 score: HR/FB% — 30% HR/IP — 25% Total HRs — 20% FIP-xFIP gap — 15% Pool HR rate — 10% Normalized across 492 qualified pitchers. |
Score +/- Change in composite susceptibility score versus the same as-of report 7 days earlier. The LongDong scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date; validated snapshots preserve the full pre-game view. | HRs | IP |
HR/IP
Home runs allowed divided by innings pitched, derived from official season HR and IP columns. League avg: 0.13. Above .167 equals 1.5 HR/9. Above .222 equals 2.0 HR/9. |
HR/FB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | Gap | Pool |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Luis Morales
ATH
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 5 | 12.0 | 0.417 | 31.2% | 11.32 | 11.32 | 7.98 | +3.34 | 4/17 | |
| 2 |
Jameson Taillon
CHC
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 22 100th | 71.0 | 0.310 | 23.2% | 6.49 | 6.49 | 4.55 | +1.94 | 16/115 | |
| 3 |
Dean Kremer
BAL
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 11.0 | 0.364 | 33.3% | 5.51 | 5.51 | 2.49 | +3.02 | 2/9 | |
| 4 |
Steven Cruz
KC
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 7 75th | 20.3 | 0.345 | 38.9% | 6.75 | 6.75 | 3.65 | +3.10 | · | |
| 5 |
Brady Singer
CIN
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | -0.4 | 18 99th | 68.7 | 0.262 | 24.7% | 6.22 | 6.22 | 4.47 | +1.75 | 21/108 | |
| 6 |
Ken Waldichuk
WSH
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 10.3 | 0.388 | 33.3% | 8.39 | 8.39 | 5.16 | +3.23 | · | |
| 7 |
Luis Curvelo
TEX
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 5 | 10.7 | 0.467 | 26.3% | 8.76 | 8.76 | 5.45 | +3.31 | · | |
| 8 |
David Sandlin
CWS
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 13.0 | 0.308 | 33.3% | 6.61 | 6.61 | 4.05 | +2.56 | 3/18 | |
| 9 |
Taijuan Walker
PHI
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 8 79th | 22.7 | 0.352 | 24.2% | 7.82 | 7.82 | 5.51 | +2.31 | 4/18 | |
| 10 |
Edward Cabrera
CHC
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 17 98th | 70.0 | 0.243 | 27.0% | 5.68 | 5.68 | 3.93 | +1.75 | 14/114 | |
| 11 |
Jeffrey Springs
ATH
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.4 | 21 100th | 84.0 | 0.250 | 19.6% | 5.63 | 5.63 | 4.36 | +1.27 | 27/128 | |
| 12 |
Max Scherzer
TOR
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 9 84th | 26.7 | 0.337 | 22.5% | 7.83 | 7.83 | 5.79 | +2.04 | 10/44 | |
| 13 |
Aaron Bummer
ATL
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 6 | 16.7 | 0.359 | 30.0% | 8.24 | 8.24 | 5.44 | +2.80 | · | |
| 14 |
Zack Littell
WSH
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.5 | 20 100th | 70.0 | 0.286 | 17.9% | 6.76 | 6.76 | 5.55 | +1.21 | 18/111 | |
| 15 |
Ryan Weiss
HOU
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 8 79th | 26.0 | 0.308 | 27.6% | 7.15 | 7.15 | 4.89 | +2.26 | 2/18 | |
| 16 | EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 10.7 | 0.374 | 28.6% | 8.57 | 8.57 | 5.75 | +2.82 | · | ||
| 17 | EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 12.7 | 0.315 | 33.3% | 7.64 | 7.64 | 5.02 | +2.62 | · | ||
| 18 |
Valente Bellozo
COL
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 5 | 13.7 | 0.365 | 27.8% | 8.62 | 8.62 | 5.93 | +2.69 | · | |
| 19 |
Tony Santillan
CIN
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 9 84th | 28.3 | 0.318 | 27.3% | 6.61 | 6.61 | 4.30 | +2.31 | · | |
| 20 |
Eric Lauer
TOR
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | -0.6 | 16 97th | 57.3 | 0.279 | 17.8% | 6.54 | 6.54 | 5.36 | +1.18 | 13/79 | |
| 21 |
Kodai Senga
NYM
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.6 | 7 75th | 23.7 | 0.295 | 25.9% | 6.91 | 6.91 | 4.84 | +2.07 | 7/62 | |
| 22 | EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.5 | 17 98th | 70.0 | 0.243 | 20.0% | 6.45 | 6.45 | 5.19 | +1.26 | 10/85 | ||
| 23 |
Ryan Weathers
NYY
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.1 | 17 98th | 84.7 | 0.201 | 22.7% | 4.41 | 4.41 | 3.19 | +1.22 | 14/122 | |
| 24 |
Mike Burrows
HOU
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 18 99th | 84.3 | 0.214 | 18.8% | 5.49 | 5.49 | 4.49 | +1.00 | 20/120 | |
| 25 |
Cole Ragans
KC
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 10 88th | 39.3 | 0.254 | 23.3% | 5.67 | 5.67 | 4.07 | +1.60 | 11/71 | |
| 26 |
Justin Lawrence
PIT
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 8 79th | 29.3 | 0.273 | 28.6% | 6.80 | 6.80 | 4.74 | +2.06 | · | |
| 27 |
Bryan Abreu
HOU
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 6 | 24.7 | 0.243 | 31.6% | 7.20 | 7.20 | 5.24 | +1.96 | · | |
| 28 |
Nathan Eovaldi
TEX
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 17 98th | 91.3 | 0.186 | 21.5% | 4.67 | 4.67 | 3.60 | +1.07 | 13/123 | |
| 29 |
Aaron Nola
PHI
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 16 97th | 78.0 | 0.205 | 19.3% | 4.82 | 4.82 | 3.81 | +1.01 | 16/121 | |
| 30 |
Miles Mikolas
WSH
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 16 97th | 73.7 | 0.217 | 19.3% | 5.50 | 5.50 | 4.43 | +1.07 | 4/61 | |
| 31 |
Tanner Bibee
CLE
|
+1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 18 99th | 92.7 | 0.194 | 16.8% | 4.87 | 4.87 | 4.14 | +0.73 | 18/141 | |
| 32 |
Brandon Sproat
MIL
|
-1 | 📊 Elevated | -0.1 | 13 93th | 66.0 | 0.197 | 20.6% | 5.42 | 5.42 | 4.35 | +1.07 | 18/124 | |
| 33 | EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 9 84th | 32.3 | 0.279 | 19.6% | 6.49 | 6.49 | 5.09 | +1.40 | 6/54 | ||
| 34 |
Gavin Williams
CLE
|
+1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.3 | 16 97th | 95.3 | 0.168 | 21.3% | 4.12 | 4.12 | 3.16 | +0.96 | 13/140 | |
| 35 |
Zac Gallen
AZ
|
-1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 16 97th | 79.3 | 0.202 | 18.6% | 5.57 | 5.57 | 4.64 | +0.93 | 14/138 | |
| 36 | EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.1 | 15 96th | 75.0 | 0.200 | 18.8% | 4.95 | 4.95 | 4.01 | +0.94 | 14/114 | ||
| 37 |
Matt Strahm
KC
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 8 79th | 24.3 | 0.329 | 20.0% | 7.02 | 7.02 | 5.31 | +1.71 | · | |
| 38 |
Mitchell Parker
WSH
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 10 88th | 38.7 | 0.258 | 22.2% | 5.50 | 5.50 | 3.96 | +1.54 | · | |
| 39 |
Andrew Painter
PHI
|
+6 | 📊 Elevated | +0.8 | 14 95th | 64.3 | 0.218 | 16.5% | 5.59 | 5.59 | 4.82 | +0.77 | 19/114 | |
| 40 |
Hunter Dobbins
STL
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 3 | 17.3 | 0.173 | 27.3% | 4.42 | 4.42 | 3.16 | +1.26 | 4/16 | |
| 41 |
Spencer Strider
ATL
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 9 84th | 37.7 | 0.239 | 19.1% | 5.48 | 5.48 | 4.33 | +1.15 | 12/70 | |
| 42 |
Jacob deGrom
TEX
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.2 | 15 96th | 81.3 | 0.185 | 17.9% | 3.80 | 3.80 | 3.02 | +0.78 | 17/115 | |
| 43 |
Shota Imanaga
CHC
|
-4 | 📊 Elevated | -0.3 | 17 98th | 91.0 | 0.187 | 15.7% | 4.55 | 4.55 | 3.97 | +0.58 | 20/130 | |
| 44 | -1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 8 79th | 40.3 | 0.199 | 24.2% | 5.56 | 5.56 | 4.25 | +1.31 | 8/70 | ||
| 45 |
Ryne Nelson
AZ
|
-1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.1 | 18 99th | 88.3 | 0.204 | 14.8% | 5.19 | 5.19 | 4.69 | +0.50 | 14/120 | |
| 46 |
Foster Griffin
WSH
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.2 | 15 96th | 88.7 | 0.169 | 17.9% | 4.51 | 4.51 | 3.79 | +0.72 | 15/99 | |
| 47 |
Ryan Helsley
BAL
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 3 | 13.3 | 0.226 | 30.0% | 5.56 | 5.56 | 3.80 | +1.76 | · | |
| 48 |
JR Ritchie
ATL
|
NEW | 📊 Elevated | +0.5 | 7 75th | 35.0 | 0.200 | 21.9% | 6.09 | 6.09 | 4.92 | +1.17 | 8/43 | |
| 49 |
Luis Gil
NYY
|
-1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 6 | 24.0 | 0.250 | 21.4% | 6.94 | 6.94 | 5.51 | +1.43 | 3/27 | |
| 50 |
Erick Fedde
CWS
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 14 95th | 69.3 | 0.202 | 16.3% | 5.69 | 5.69 | 5.00 | +0.69 | 12/81 |
How this works:
The susceptibility score is a composite ranking using
real season stats from FanGraphs: HR/FB% (30%), official HR/IP (25%), total HRs allowed (20%),
and FIP-xFIP gap (15%), plus a 10% boost for pitchers who give up HRs to batters in our scored pool.
FanGraphs season columns come from the loaded season cache or a validated snapshot; the LongDong scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date.
Historical reconstructed views are directional only unless a validated pre-game snapshot is available.
Pitchers qualify with at least 2 starts or 10 IP (492 qualify in this view).
The top 10 are flagged with a 🎯 icon
directly on the main slate table — so you never miss a soft matchup.
Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.
Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)
Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.
Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)