Susceptible Pitchers
The most HR-prone arms in baseball right now - a top-50 composite ranking using official season HR/IP, FanGraphs season stats, LongDong scored-pool results, and weekly report movement.
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-06-17T11:00:32-04:00
HR Susceptibility Rankings · 2026-06-17
| # | Pitcher | 7d Rank |
Tier
Based on composite susceptibility score. 🔥 Extreme: 75+ ⚠️ High: 55–74 📊 Elevated: 35–54 📉 Moderate: <35 |
Score
Composite 0–100 score: HR/FB% — 30% HR/IP — 25% Total HRs — 20% FIP-xFIP gap — 15% Pool HR rate — 10% Normalized across 489 qualified pitchers. |
Score +/- Change in composite susceptibility score versus the same as-of report 7 days earlier. The LongDong scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date; validated snapshots preserve the full pre-game view. | HRs | IP |
HR/IP
Home runs allowed divided by innings pitched, derived from official season HR and IP columns. League avg: 0.127. Above .167 equals 1.5 HR/9. Above .222 equals 2.0 HR/9. |
HR/FB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | Gap | Pool |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Luis Morales
ATH
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 5 | 12.0 | 0.417 | 31.2% | 11.32 | 11.32 | 7.98 | +3.34 | 4/17 | |
| 2 |
Jameson Taillon
CHC
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 22 100th | 71.0 | 0.310 | 23.2% | 6.49 | 6.49 | 4.55 | +1.94 | 16/115 | |
| 3 |
Dean Kremer
BAL
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 11.0 | 0.364 | 33.3% | 5.51 | 5.51 | 2.49 | +3.02 | 2/9 | |
| 4 |
Steven Cruz
KC
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 7 76th | 20.3 | 0.345 | 38.9% | 6.75 | 6.75 | 3.65 | +3.10 | · | |
| 5 |
Brady Singer
CIN
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | -0.4 | 18 99th | 63.7 | 0.283 | 26.1% | 6.38 | 6.38 | 4.40 | +1.98 | 21/108 | |
| 6 |
Ken Waldichuk
WSH
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 10.3 | 0.388 | 33.3% | 8.39 | 8.39 | 5.16 | +3.23 | · | |
| 7 |
Luis Curvelo
TEX
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 5 | 10.7 | 0.467 | 26.3% | 8.76 | 8.76 | 5.45 | +3.31 | · | |
| 8 |
David Sandlin
CWS
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 13.0 | 0.308 | 33.3% | 6.61 | 6.61 | 4.05 | +2.56 | 3/18 | |
| 9 |
Taijuan Walker
PHI
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 8 80th | 22.7 | 0.352 | 24.2% | 7.82 | 7.82 | 5.51 | +2.31 | 4/18 | |
| 10 |
Edward Cabrera
CHC
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.1 | 16 98th | 65.7 | 0.244 | 27.1% | 5.65 | 5.65 | 3.88 | +1.77 | 14/114 | |
| 11 |
Max Scherzer
TOR
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 9 85th | 26.7 | 0.337 | 22.5% | 7.83 | 7.83 | 5.79 | +2.04 | 10/44 | |
| 12 |
Aaron Bummer
ATL
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 6 | 16.7 | 0.359 | 30.0% | 8.24 | 8.24 | 5.44 | +2.80 | · | |
| 13 |
Ryan Weiss
HOU
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 8 80th | 26.0 | 0.308 | 27.6% | 7.15 | 7.15 | 4.89 | +2.26 | 2/18 | |
| 14 |
Jeffrey Springs
ATH
|
+3 | ⚠️ High | +0.7 | 19 100th | 80.7 | 0.235 | 19.0% | 5.36 | 5.36 | 4.23 | +1.13 | 24/122 | |
| 15 |
Tony Santillan
CIN
|
-1 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 9 85th | 27.3 | 0.330 | 27.3% | 6.89 | 6.89 | 4.49 | +2.40 | · | |
| 16 | -1 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 10.7 | 0.374 | 28.6% | 8.57 | 8.57 | 5.75 | +2.82 | · | ||
| 17 | -1 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 12.7 | 0.315 | 33.3% | 7.64 | 7.64 | 5.02 | +2.62 | · | ||
| 18 |
Valente Bellozo
COL
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 5 | 13.7 | 0.365 | 27.8% | 8.62 | 8.62 | 5.93 | +2.69 | · | |
| 19 |
Eric Lauer
TOR
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | -0.7 | 16 98th | 57.3 | 0.279 | 17.8% | 6.54 | 6.54 | 5.36 | +1.18 | 13/79 | |
| 20 |
Mike Burrows
HOU
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.1 | 18 99th | 83.3 | 0.216 | 19.1% | 5.54 | 5.54 | 4.49 | +1.05 | 20/120 | |
| 21 |
Cole Ragans
KC
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 10 88th | 39.3 | 0.254 | 23.3% | 5.67 | 5.67 | 4.07 | +1.60 | 11/71 | |
| 22 |
Ryan Weathers
NYY
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.3 | 16 98th | 78.3 | 0.204 | 22.5% | 4.52 | 4.52 | 3.27 | +1.25 | 13/115 | |
| 23 |
Nathan Eovaldi
TEX
|
+1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.1 | 17 99th | 91.3 | 0.186 | 21.5% | 4.67 | 4.67 | 3.60 | +1.07 | 13/123 | |
| 24 |
Bryan Abreu
HOU
|
-1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 6 | 24.7 | 0.243 | 31.6% | 7.20 | 7.20 | 5.24 | +1.96 | · | |
| 25 | EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.1 | 15 97th | 65.0 | 0.231 | 19.2% | 6.38 | 6.38 | 5.25 | +1.13 | 10/85 | ||
| 26 |
Mitchell Parker
WSH
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 10 88th | 36.3 | 0.275 | 23.8% | 5.57 | 5.57 | 3.80 | +1.77 | · | |
| 27 | +2 | 📊 Elevated | +0.5 | 8 80th | 36.0 | 0.222 | 25.8% | 5.71 | 5.71 | 4.16 | +1.55 | 8/70 | ||
| 28 |
Justin Slaten
BOS
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 4 | 14.3 | 0.280 | 28.6% | 5.67 | 5.67 | 3.56 | +2.11 | · | |
| 29 |
Zack Littell
WSH
|
+2 | 📊 Elevated | +0.5 | 16 98th | 65.0 | 0.246 | 15.8% | 6.21 | 6.21 | 5.44 | +0.77 | 15/105 | |
| 30 |
Nick Lodolo
CIN
|
-3 | 📊 Elevated | -0.9 | 9 85th | 37.7 | 0.239 | 22.0% | 6.57 | 6.57 | 5.16 | +1.41 | 6/41 | |
| 31 |
Matt Strahm
KC
|
-1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 8 80th | 23.7 | 0.338 | 20.5% | 6.99 | 6.99 | 5.17 | +1.82 | · | |
| 32 | EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 9 85th | 32.3 | 0.279 | 19.6% | 6.49 | 6.49 | 5.09 | +1.40 | 6/54 | ||
| 33 |
Zac Gallen
AZ
|
+1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.3 | 16 98th | 79.3 | 0.202 | 18.6% | 5.57 | 5.57 | 4.64 | +0.93 | 13/130 | |
| 34 |
Kyle Freeland
COL
|
-1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 14 96th | 62.3 | 0.225 | 18.9% | 5.49 | 5.49 | 4.43 | +1.06 | 10/105 | |
| 35 |
Erick Fedde
CWS
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 14 96th | 64.7 | 0.216 | 17.5% | 5.95 | 5.95 | 5.06 | +0.89 | 12/81 | |
| 36 |
Brandon Sproat
MIL
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 12 93th | 62.3 | 0.193 | 20.7% | 5.45 | 5.45 | 4.39 | +1.06 | 17/115 | |
| 37 |
Tanner Bibee
CLE
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.2 | 17 99th | 87.3 | 0.195 | 16.7% | 4.91 | 4.91 | 4.21 | +0.70 | 17/134 | |
| 38 |
Foster Griffin
WSH
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.2 | 15 97th | 82.7 | 0.181 | 18.5% | 4.65 | 4.65 | 3.82 | +0.83 | 15/99 | |
| 39 |
Hunter Dobbins
STL
|
NEW | 📊 Elevated | +4.2 | 3 | 17.3 | 0.173 | 27.3% | 4.42 | 4.42 | 3.16 | +1.26 | 4/16 | |
| 40 |
Spencer Strider
ATL
|
+1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.3 | 9 85th | 37.7 | 0.239 | 19.1% | 5.48 | 5.48 | 4.33 | +1.15 | 12/70 | |
| 41 |
Shota Imanaga
CHC
|
-2 | 📊 Elevated | -0.3 | 17 99th | 91.0 | 0.187 | 15.7% | 4.55 | 4.55 | 3.97 | +0.58 | 20/130 | |
| 42 |
Ryne Nelson
AZ
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.1 | 18 99th | 88.3 | 0.204 | 14.8% | 5.19 | 5.19 | 4.69 | +0.50 | 14/120 | |
| 43 |
Aaron Nola
PHI
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.3 | 14 96th | 73.0 | 0.192 | 18.4% | 4.70 | 4.70 | 3.83 | +0.87 | 15/114 | |
| 44 |
Kodai Senga
NYM
|
+3 | 📊 Elevated | +0.6 | 5 | 19.7 | 0.254 | 22.7% | 6.25 | 6.25 | 4.69 | +1.56 | 7/62 | |
| 45 | +3 | 📊 Elevated | +0.6 | 14 96th | 73.3 | 0.191 | 18.4% | 4.87 | 4.87 | 4.00 | +0.87 | 13/107 | ||
| 46 |
Andrew Kittredge
BAL
|
-1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 3 | 15.7 | 0.191 | 33.3% | 4.68 | 4.68 | 3.09 | +1.59 | · | |
| 47 |
Steven Matz
TB
|
-1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 11 91th | 54.3 | 0.203 | 18.6% | 5.40 | 5.40 | 4.46 | +0.94 | 15/89 | |
| 48 |
Grant Holmes
ATL
|
-4 | 📊 Elevated | -0.3 | 13 94th | 71.3 | 0.182 | 18.8% | 5.18 | 5.18 | 4.32 | +0.86 | 16/113 | |
| 49 |
Luis Gil
NYY
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 6 | 24.0 | 0.250 | 21.4% | 6.94 | 6.94 | 5.51 | +1.43 | 3/27 | |
| 50 |
Robert Gasser
MIL
|
-10 | 📊 Elevated | -1.3 | 6 | 24.3 | 0.247 | 19.4% | 5.95 | 5.95 | 4.73 | +1.22 | 8/43 |
How this works:
The susceptibility score is a composite ranking using
real season stats from FanGraphs: HR/FB% (30%), official HR/IP (25%), total HRs allowed (20%),
and FIP-xFIP gap (15%), plus a 10% boost for pitchers who give up HRs to batters in our scored pool.
FanGraphs season columns come from the loaded season cache or a validated snapshot; the LongDong scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date.
Historical reconstructed views are directional only unless a validated pre-game snapshot is available.
Pitchers qualify with at least 2 starts or 10 IP (489 qualify in this view).
The top 10 are flagged with a 🎯 icon
directly on the main slate table — so you never miss a soft matchup.
Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.
Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)
Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.
Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)