17
HRs allowed
17.3%
HR rate (pool)
14.3%
Overall HR/FB
4.42
FIP
4.14
xFIP
+0.28
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
61
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 61th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
28.6%
Hard-Hit% allowed
72.1%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.4 EV · 396 ft
max EV allowed 114.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 2 HR ↑
30D · 2 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Steven Matz.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
50.0%
82.4
23.7°
9
+0.7
Changeup Offspeed
28.2%
78.5
15.5°
4
-0.1
Curveball Breaking
13.3%
82.1
2.4°
1
-2.0
Slider Breaking
8.2%
77.4
8.2°
1
+0.9
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups98
HRs allowed (pool)17
Pool HR rate17.3%
Pool HR/game day1.55
Top-15 matchups6
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB14.3% 61
HR/9—
FIP4.42 65
xFIP4.14
FIP − xFIP+0.28 65
Barrel% allowed28.6%
Hard-Hit% allowed72.1%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Sinker
Hard · 50.0% usage
+0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.4 mph
Avg launch angle23.7°
HRs allowed9
Pitches721
Changeup
Offspeed · 28.2% usage
-0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.5 mph
Avg launch angle15.5°
HRs allowed4
Pitches407
Curveball
Breaking · 13.3% usage
-2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.1 mph
Avg launch angle2.4°
HRs allowed1
Pitches192
Slider
Breaking · 8.2% usage
+0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.4 mph
Avg launch angle8.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches118
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Steven Matz.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
17 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.4 EV · 396 ft
2 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 11 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-14
9
2
104.6
2026-06-02
9
3
108.3
2026-05-27
9
2
109.9
2026-05-20
9
2
111.8
2026-05-03
9
0
105.3
2026-04-27
9
1
105.5
2026-04-21
9
3
112.0
2026-04-16
9
2
109.6
2026-04-10
9
0
110.1
2026-04-04
9
0
108.6
2026-03-29
8
2
114.9
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Steven Matz isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Steven Matz isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
54
10
19%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
8
2
25%
9
1
11%
9
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Steven Matz
How many home runs has Steven Matz allowed this season?
Steven Matz has allowed 17 home runs across 11 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Steven Matz?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Steven Matz include Gunnar Henderson (2), Blaze Alexander (1), Colton Cowser (1) and 13 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.