15
HRs allowed
16.9%
HR rate (pool)
13.7%
Overall HR/FB
4.32
FIP
4.11
xFIP
+0.21
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
60
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 60th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
71.4%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.5 EV · 394 ft
max EV allowed 114.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 5 HR ↑
15D · 7 HR ↑
30D · 7 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Steven Matz.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
48.3%
82.8
26.3°
7
+1.8
Changeup Offspeed
29.4%
78.8
16.1°
3
-0.2
Curveball Breaking
11.2%
83.7
2.1°
0
-2.8
Slider Breaking
11.0%
77.8
8.8°
1
+0.9
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups89
HRs allowed (pool)15
Pool HR rate16.9%
Pool HR/game day1.5
Top-15 matchups5
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB13.7% 60
HR/9—
FIP4.32 61
xFIP4.11
FIP − xFIP+0.21 61
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed71.4%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Sinker
Hard · 48.3% usage
+1.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.8 mph
Avg launch angle26.3°
HRs allowed7
Pitches478
Changeup
Offspeed · 29.4% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against78.8 mph
Avg launch angle16.1°
HRs allowed3
Pitches291
Curveball
Breaking · 11.2% usage
-2.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.7 mph
Avg launch angle2.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches111
Slider
Breaking · 11.0% usage
+0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.8 mph
Avg launch angle8.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches109
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Steven Matz.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
15 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.5 EV · 394 ft
7 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 10 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-06-02
9
3
108.3
2026-05-27
9
2
109.9
2026-05-20
9
2
111.8
2026-05-03
9
0
105.3
2026-04-27
9
1
105.5
2026-04-21
9
3
112.0
2026-04-16
9
2
109.6
2026-04-10
9
0
110.1
2026-04-04
9
0
108.6
2026-03-29
8
2
114.9
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Steven Matz isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.