Today · 2026-09-25

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⭐ Today's Slate

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🥇 Golden Slate 4 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#1 Pete Alonso vs Brendan Beck FIP 10.55 HR/FB 42.9% #3 Munetaka Murakami vs Tomoyuki Sugano FIP 5.47 HR/FB 23.3% #6 Pro pick vs Brendan Beck FIP 10.55 HR/FB 42.9% #15 Pro pick vs Nick Lodolo FIP 5.85 HR/FB 21.9%

📦 STACK Brendan Beck FIP 10.55 HR/FB 42.9% → #1 Pete Alonso, #6 Pro pick

📦 STACK Tomoyuki Sugano FIP 5.47 HR/FB 23.3% → #3 Munetaka Murakami, #9 Pro pick, #13 Pro pick

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-09-24. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

92.7% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Roster	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Last HR	Last 5	Due	BvP	BP	Weather
1	Pete Alonso (R)	80	·	●	Brendan Beck (RHP) BAL @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	4:10p	🟢 A	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	41	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%14.2% Avg EV93.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-09-23 OffMax Scherzer Exit Velo109.2 mph Angle24.0° Distance412 ft StadiumCamden Yards	○●○●●	0.0×	·	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.9% HR/91.03 FIP3.75 IP1418.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-52 Weather · Yankee Stadium mild air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70°F Wind13 mph NNE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-52 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 40 HR Note70°F, wind 13 mph NNE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
2	Munetaka Murakami (L)	74	·	●	Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP) COL @ CWS · Rate Field	7:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	33	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls17 BBE Barrel%14.7% Avg EV93.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-09-22 OffTony Gonsolin Exit Velo109.1 mph Angle24.0° Distance373 ft StadiumKauffman Stadium	○○●○○	0.7×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.40 FIP4.87 IP1430.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 33 HR NoteUnknown stadium
3	Pete Alonso (R)	76	·	●	NYY Bullpen Proxy BAL @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	4:05p	🟡 B	RHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	41	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%15.0% Avg EV93.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-09-23 OffMax Scherzer Exit Velo109.2 mph Angle24.0° Distance412 ft StadiumCamden Yards	○●○●●	0.0×	·	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.9% HR/91.03 FIP3.75 IP1418.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-51 Weather · Yankee Stadium mild air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70°F Wind13 mph NNE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-51 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 40 HR Note70°F, wind 13 mph NNE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
4	James Wood (L)	76	·	●	NYM Bullpen Proxy NYM @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🟡 B	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	30	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%19.0% Avg EV95.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	61d Last HR · 2026-07-26 OffKevin Ginkel Exit Velo109.6 mph Angle25.0° Distance418 ft StadiumNationals Park	○○○○○	13.0×	·	NYM Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.1% HR/91.17 FIP4.15 IP1455.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-45 Weather · Nationals Park mild air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: conditions are working against carry tonight. Roofopen Temp68°F Wind11 mph NNW Characterin HR Modifier-3 Spray/Wind-45 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 30 HR Note68°F, wind 11 mph NNW (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast)
5	Ben Rice (L)	71	·	●	Brandon Young (RHP) BAL @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	4:05p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	41	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%9.9% Avg EV91.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-09-23 OffMason Englert Exit Velo101.1 mph Angle30.0° Distance383 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	○○○●○	0.3×	1	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.2% HR/91.02 FIP4.04 IP1371.2 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-31 Weather · Yankee Stadium mild air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70°F Wind13 mph NNE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-31 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 40 HR Note70°F, wind 13 mph NNE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
6	Pro pick (R)	70	·	●	Brendan Beck (RHP) BAL @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	4:10p	🟡 B	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%13.6% Avg EV91.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.9% HR/91.03 FIP3.75 IP1418.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-75 Weather · Yankee Stadium mild air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70°F Wind13 mph NNE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-75 · Deep red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note70°F, wind 13 mph NNE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
7	Pro pick (L)	68	·	●	Jacob Lopez (LHP) HOU @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%10.4% Avg EV94.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	ATH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.0% HR/91.49 FIP4.90 IP1420.5 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+22 Weather · Sutter Health Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp77°F Wind7 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+22 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceblend · 3 HR Note77°F, wind 7 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
8	Pro pick (L)	68	·	●	Trevor Rogers (LHP) BAL @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	4:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%9.8% Avg EV91.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.2% HR/91.02 FIP4.04 IP1371.2 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-31 Weather · Yankee Stadium mild air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70°F Wind13 mph NNE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-31 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 40 HR Note70°F, wind 13 mph NNE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
9	Pro pick (R)	67	·	●	Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP) COL @ CWS · Rate Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%12.3% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.40 FIP4.87 IP1430.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 33 HR NoteUnknown stadium
10	Pro pick (L)	66	·	●	Freddy Peralta (RHP) TB @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%9.8% Avg EV92.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.22 FIP4.05 IP1361.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-68 Weather · Citizens Bank Park mild air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: conditions are working against carry tonight. Roofopen Temp68°F Wind12 mph N Characterin HR Modifier-3 Spray/Wind-68 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 44 HR Note68°F, wind 12 mph N (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast)
11	Pro pick (R)	65	·	●	Sean Burke (RHP) COL @ CWS · Rate Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV89.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CWS Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.5% HR/91.05 FIP4.15 IP1375.4 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 38 HR NoteUnknown stadium
12	Pro pick (R)	64	·	●	Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP) COL @ CWS · Rate Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV91.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.40 FIP4.87 IP1430.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 14 HR NoteUnknown stadium
13	Pro pick (L)	64	·	●	Andrew Alvarez (LHP) NYM @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%9.0% Avg EV92.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.0% HR/91.38 FIP4.75 IP1451.8 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-37 Weather · Nationals Park mild air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: conditions are working against carry tonight. Roofopen Temp68°F Wind11 mph NNW Characterin HR Modifier-3 Spray/Wind-37 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 27 HR Note68°F, wind 11 mph NNW (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast)
14	Pro pick (L)	63	·	●	Brayan Bello (RHP) CHC @ BOS · Fenway Park	6:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	BOS Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.3% HR/90.94 FIP3.65 IP1387.6000000000001 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-75 Weather · Fenway Park cool air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: conditions are working against carry tonight. Roofopen Temp63°F Wind13 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier-3 Spray/Wind-75 · Deep red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 44 HR Note63°F, wind 13 mph NE (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast)
15	Pro pick (S)	66	·	●	TOR Bullpen Proxy CIN @ TOR · Rogers Centre	7:07p	🔵 C+	SHH vs ?HP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%15.9% Avg EV94.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.5% HR/91.03 FIP3.87 IP1316.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-20 Weather · Rogers Centre cool air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp63°F Wind5 mph N Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-20 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 29 HR Note63°F, wind 5 mph N (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
16	Pro pick (R)	62	·	●	Nick Lodolo (LHP) CIN @ TOR · Rogers Centre	7:07p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls34 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.2% HR/91.36 FIP4.86 IP1358.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-18 Weather · Rogers Centre cool air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp63°F Wind5 mph N Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-18 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 32 HR Note63°F, wind 5 mph N (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
17	Pro pick (R)	62	·	●	Cristopher Sánchez (LHP) TB @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%9.7% Avg EV92.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.4% HR/91.20 FIP3.81 IP1366.4 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-70 Weather · Citizens Bank Park mild air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: conditions are working against carry tonight. Roofopen Temp68°F Wind12 mph N Characterin HR Modifier-3 Spray/Wind-70 · Deep red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 41 HR Note68°F, wind 12 mph N (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast)
18	Pro pick (R)	62	·	●	Hunter Brown (RHP) HOU @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls34 BBE Barrel%8.1% Avg EV89.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	HOU Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.33 FIP4.66 IP1398.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+36 Weather · Sutter Health Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp77°F Wind7 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+36 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note77°F, wind 7 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
19	Pro pick (L)	62	·	●	Jackson Jobe (RHP) PIT @ DET · Comerica Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV91.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	DET Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.4% HR/91.07 FIP4.07 IP1475.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+28 Weather · Comerica Park cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63°F Wind5 mph NE Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+28 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 34 HR Note63°F, wind 5 mph NE (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
20	Pro pick (R)	65	·	●	NYY Bullpen Proxy BAL @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	4:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%13.7% Avg EV91.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.9% HR/91.03 FIP3.75 IP1418.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-75 Weather · Yankee Stadium mild air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70°F Wind13 mph NNE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-75 · Deep red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note70°F, wind 13 mph NNE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
21	Pro pick (L)	61	·	●	Eury Pérez (RHP) ATL @ MIA · loanDepot Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%12.2% Avg EV92.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	MIA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.1% HR/91.10 FIP4.23 IP1404.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+10 Weather · loanDepot Park hot air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp82°F Wind2 mph NW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+10 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 41 HR Note82°F, wind 2 mph NW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
22	Pro pick (L)	61	·	●	Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP) COL @ CWS · Rate Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls14 BBE Barrel%11.8% Avg EV88.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.40 FIP4.87 IP1430.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 30 HR NoteUnknown stadium
23	Pro pick (L)	64	·	●	NYM Bullpen Proxy NYM @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🔵 C+	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%10.3% Avg EV89.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	NYM Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.1% HR/91.17 FIP4.15 IP1455.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-38 Weather · Nationals Park mild air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: conditions are working against carry tonight. Roofopen Temp68°F Wind11 mph NNW Characterin HR Modifier-3 Spray/Wind-38 · Red resistance Spray Sourceblend · 1 HR Note68°F, wind 11 mph NNW (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast)
24	Pro pick (L)	59	·	●	Michael McGreevy (RHP) STL @ MIL · American Family Field	7:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls17 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV92.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	STL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.00 FIP4.11 IP1421.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-4 Weather · American Family Field cool air · light crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp60°F Wind4 mph ENE Charactercross HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind-4 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 26 HR Note60°F, wind 4 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast)
25	Pro pick (L)	59	·	●	Gavin Williams (RHP) CLE @ KC · Kauffman Stadium	7:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV91.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.6% HR/91.10 FIP3.88 IP1341.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-20 Weather · Kauffman Stadium mild air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp69°F Wind5 mph ESE Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-20 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 24 HR Note69°F, wind 5 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
26	Pro pick (R)	59	·	●	Hunter Brown (RHP) HOU @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%9.3% Avg EV91.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	HOU Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.33 FIP4.66 IP1398.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+36 Weather · Sutter Health Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp77°F Wind7 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+36 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note77°F, wind 7 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
27	Pro pick (L)	59	·	●	Brendan Beck (RHP) BAL @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	4:10p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV89.2 mph Surprise BarrelYes Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.9% HR/91.03 FIP3.75 IP1418.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-16 Weather · Yankee Stadium mild air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70°F Wind13 mph NNE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-16 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 24 HR Note70°F, wind 13 mph NNE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
28	Pro pick (R)	59	·	●	Jacob Lopez (LHP) HOU @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%7.9% Avg EV88.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	ATH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.0% HR/91.49 FIP4.90 IP1420.5 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+33 Weather · Sutter Health Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp77°F Wind7 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+33 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 26 HR Note77°F, wind 7 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
29	Pro pick (L)	59	·	●	Jackson Jobe (RHP) PIT @ DET · Comerica Park	6:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%12.0% Avg EV93.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	DET Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.4% HR/91.07 FIP4.07 IP1475.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+23 Weather · Comerica Park cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63°F Wind5 mph NE Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+23 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note63°F, wind 5 mph NE (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
30	Pro pick (L)	58	·	●	Alec Gamboa (LHP) CHC @ BOS · Fenway Park	1:05p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%7.5% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	BOS Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.3% HR/90.94 FIP3.65 IP1387.6000000000001 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-72 Weather · Fenway Park cool air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: conditions are working against carry tonight. Roofopen Temp65°F Wind13 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier-3 Spray/Wind-72 · Deep red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 44 HR Note65°F, wind 13 mph NE (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast)

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

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Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

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Full board + 6-pick cards — Pro

Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

16.4%

▲ +0.2 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 16.3% prior 15d

Yesterday · 2026-09-24

22 HRs

31%

7 caught / 22 HRs

in top 50

#10 Elly De La Cruz

28.8%

🔵

#15 Zack Gelof

29.6%

🔵

#18 Christian Walker

20.0%

🔵

#22 Isaac Paredes

30.4%

🟠

#33 Nolan Arenado

23.9%

🟠

#38 Seiya Suzuki

14.9%

🟠

#47 Austin Riley

17.0%

🟠

Missed

Corey Seager George Lombard Jr. Gabriel Moreno Austin Wells Julio Rodríguez +10 more

7-Day Streaks

top 50 pool

🔥 Hot

Pete Alonso ×4 Brandon Lowe ×3 Ben Rice ×2 Isaac Paredes ×2 Elly De La Cruz ×2

❄️ Cold

Coby Mayo 0 of 7d Kazuma Okamoto 0 of 7d Junior Caminero 0 of 7d Dominic Canzone 0 of 6d Drake Baldwin 0 of 6d

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 19.2%

B 20.1%

C+ 17.3%

C 13.8%

D 9.0%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Today · 2026-09-25

The free preview stops at 5. Tonight's board doesn't.

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.