0
HRs allowed
0%
HR rate (pool)
0.9%
Overall HR/FB
3.39
FIP
3.92
xFIP
#20
Leakiest SP today (of 22, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
100
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 100th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
—
Hard-Hit% allowed
—
Fly-ball rate
—
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 63.4%
BRK 32.1%
Overall
Score
Long shots · 8 — below the fade line
No single family leads his damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal.
7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
50.8%
81.4
18.1°
0
-1.7
Slider Breaking
32.1%
82.6
18.0°
1
+4.0
Sinker Hard
12.6%
86.2
-0.6°
0
-4.8
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups0
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0%
Pool HR/game day—
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB0.9% 100
HR/9—
FIP3.39 25
xFIP3.92
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed—
Hard-Hit% allowed—
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-17
Fastball
Hard · 50.8% usage
-1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.4 mph
Avg launch angle18.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches125
Slider
Breaking · 32.1% usage
+4.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.6 mph
Avg launch angle18.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches79
Sinker
Hard · 12.6% usage
-4.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.2 mph
Avg launch angle-0.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches31
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 0 scored game days · pool
No scored game days yet for Alec Gamboa.
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Fenway Park
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
0.884
Wind
3 mph from E
Temp
70°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
7:10p
3
70°
-5
8:10p
3
70°
-5
9:10p
3
70°
-5
10:10p
3
70°
-5
11:10p
3
70°
-5
-5
Slight red alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 3 mph from E
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
310ft
short
CF
390ft
short
RF
302ft
short
vs LHH → RF
354ft
0 HRs allowed
vs RHH → LF
323ft
0 HRs allowed · short porch
Shortest: RF 302 ft
Green Monster (37 ft) in LF; straightaway CF 390, deep RCF triangle ~420; Pesky's Pole 302 in RF
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
No scored matchups by venue yet for Alec Gamboa.
Common questions about Alec Gamboa
Is Alec Gamboa likely to give up a home run tonight?
Alec Gamboa pitches tonight (AZ @ BOS at Fenway Park). This season he has allowed 0 home runs across 0 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.