TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ MIL

Suppressed air · 0.86×

STL @ MIL

American Family Field · 7:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 4 mph cross 60°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-4 ↑

6:40p

-4 ↑

7:40p

-5 ↑

8:40p

-6 ↑

9:40p

-6 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -4

Best of game Alec Burleson conv 13 · vs Gasser ⟷ Jake Bauers conv 24 · vs McGreevy → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Robert Gasser LHP · MIL

leak 83

1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · leakiest side of this game

1 Alec Burleson — D ●●○○○

2 Jordan Walker — C ●○○○○

3 Ivan Herrera — D ●○○○○

FADE Michael McGreevy RHP · STL

leak 63

1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Bauers — C ●●●●○

2 Brice Turang — D ●●●●○

3 William Contreras — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: Match 25.5% · 14D pace 22.2% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ vs McGreevy Edge — 0.223 · 92.2 · 11.3% 22.2% 25.5% F B O C 59

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs McGreevy — 0.193 · 91.6 · 10.5% 9.1% 11.7% F B O C 51

· STL Jordan Walker vs Gasser Edge — 0.197 · 92.6 · 10.0% 0.0% 15.0% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· MIL Brice Turang vs McGreevy Edge — 0.177 · 90.2 · 8.4% 27.3% 19.7% F B O D 48

· MIL William Contreras vs McGreevy — 0.149 · 90.3 · 8.8% 30.0% 14.8% F B O D 46

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs McGreevy Edge — 0.157 · 93.2 · 10.4% 18.2% 17.6% F B O D 48

· STL Alec Burleson COOL vs Gasser — 0.181 · 91.9 · 9.0% 18.2% 8.8% F B O D 48

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs McGreevy Edge — 0.145 · 89.1 · 9.3% 12.5% 9.2% F B O D 43

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs McGreevy — 0.135 · 89.1 · 6.1% 10.0% 8.2% F B O D 37

· STL Ivan Herrera HOT vs Gasser Edge — 0.139 · 89.5 · 6.6% 0.0% 14.6% F B O D 36

· STL José Fermín vs Gasser Edge — 0.109 · 86.1 · 4.0% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 30

· STL Masyn Winn COOL vs Gasser Edge — 0.086 · 88.2 · 5.0% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 29

· STL Nolan Gorman COOL vs Gasser — 0.126 · 89.5 · 8.7% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 39

· STL Jj Wetherholt COOL vs Gasser — 0.124 · 89.8 · 7.4% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 37

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Gasser — 0.120 · 85.6 · 6.4% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 34

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs McGreevy Edge — 0.088 · 86.7 · 5.3% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 30

· MIL Sal Frelick COOL vs McGreevy Edge — 0.087 · 85.8 · 4.6% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Robert Gasser — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Michael McGreevy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Burleson Bauers Turang Mitchell Contreras

Legend

attack side — vs Gasser fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jake Bauers — · 59

Brice Turang — · 48

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.95× Wind 4 mph cross 60°F retractable

-4

↑

4 mph · cross

60°F

6:40p · peak

-4

↑

4 mph · cross

58°F

7:40p

-5

↑

4 mph · cross

57°F

8:40p

-6

↑

5 mph · cross

56°F

9:40p

-6

↑

5 mph · cross

55°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.86× 60°F, wind 4 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Robert Gasser · LHP 1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.01 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 51 C — WARM 58 0.197 92.6 10.0% 33.3%vs LHP 406 16.0% 0.0% 15.0% 22

2 Alec Burleson 48 D — COOL 80 0.181 91.9 9.0% 8.1%vs LHP 405 14.6% 18.2% 8.8% 27

3 Nolan Gorman 39 D — COOL 171 0.126 89.5 8.7% 11.1%vs LHP 407 9.1% 0.0% 6.7% 10

4 Jj Wetherholt 37 D — COOL 184 0.124 89.8 7.4% 11.8%vs LHP 393 16.7% 0.0% 6.7% 13

5 Ivan Herrera 36 D — HOT 189 0.139 89.5 6.6% 18.8%vs LHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 25

6 Nathan Church 34 D — COOL 205 0.120 85.6 6.4% 11.8%vs LHP 386 6.9% 0.0% 6.7% 34

7 José Fermín 30 D — WARM 221 0.109 86.1 4.0% 12.1%vs LHP 390 5.1% 0.0% 7.8% 20

8 Masyn Winn 29 D — COOL 229 0.086 88.2 5.0% 4.8%vs LHP 385 3.8% 0.0% 6.9% 21

vs Michael McGreevy · RHP 1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 59 C — WARM 24 0.223 92.2 11.3% 27.7%vs RHP 401 19.4% 22.2% 25.5% 17

2 Jackson Chourio 51 C — COOL 59 0.193 91.6 10.5% 18.6%vs RHP 401 17.1% 9.1% 11.7% 30

3 Brice Turang 48 D — WARM 72 0.177 90.2 8.4% 25.0%vs RHP 406 11.3% 27.3% 19.7% 23

4 Garrett Mitchell 48 D — COOL 73 0.157 93.2 10.4% 26.3%vs RHP 417 7.9% 18.2% 17.6% 24

5 William Contreras 46 D — · 95 0.149 90.3 8.8% 16.5%vs RHP 407 12.0% 30.0% 14.8% 32

6 Christian Yelich 43 D — COOL 130 0.145 89.1 9.3% 21.7%vs RHP 395 9.3% 12.5% 9.2% 23

7 Joey Ortiz 37 D — WARM 182 0.135 89.1 6.1% 18.4%vs RHP 392 7.5% 10.0% 8.2% 24

8 David Hamilton 30 D — COOL 224 0.088 86.7 5.3% 5.4%vs RHP 386 4.0% 0.0% 6.6% 13

9 Sal Frelick 29 D — COOL 231 0.087 85.8 4.6% 5.8%vs RHP 396 3.3% 0.0% 6.6% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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