TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ BOS

Suppressed air · 0.64×

CHC @ BOS

Fenway Park · 6:05p · 30 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 13 mph in 63°F Roof open

Hourly window

-18 ↑

6:05p

-17 ↑

7:05p

-18 ↑

8:05p

-18 ↑

9:05p

-18 ↑

10:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at -17

Best of game Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 27 · vs Bello ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 26 · vs Gamboa → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Brayan Bello RHP · BOS

leak 82

0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong — C+ ●●●●○

2 Alex Bregman — D ●●●○○

3 Dansby Swanson — D ●●●○○

FADE Alec Gamboa LHP · BOS

leak 44

0.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.59 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong — C ●●●●○

2 Dansby Swanson — D ●●●○○

3 Alex Bregman — D ●●●○○

FADE David Peterson LHP · CHC

leak 55

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · stingy — thin edge

1 Willson Contreras — C ●●●●○

2 Nick Sogard — D ●○○○○

3 Caleb Durbin — D ●○○○○

FADE Clay Holmes RHP · NYM

leak 13

0.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · stingy — thin edge

1 Willson Contreras — C ●●●●○

2 Nick Sogard — D ●○○○○

3 Caleb Durbin — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 29.0% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Bello Edge — 0.297 · 90.6 · 10.2% 25.0% 29.0% F B O C+ 63

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Gamboa — 0.297 · 90.6 · 7.5% 25.0% 26.9% F B O C 58

· BOS Willson Contreras vs Peterson Edge — 0.242 · 89.8 · 9.2% 25.0% 25.7% F B O C 55

· — Willson Contreras vs Holmes — 0.242 · 89.8 · 8.0% 25.0% 24.8% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 26 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Bello — 0.190 · 88.1 · 6.8% 22.2% 14.6% F B O D 44

· CHC Dansby Swanson COOL vs Bello — 0.188 · 89.5 · 7.5% 20.0% 16.8% F B O D 44

· CHC Dansby Swanson COOL vs Gamboa Edge — 0.188 · 89.5 · 5.6% 20.0% 15.3% F B O D 40

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Gamboa Edge — 0.190 · 88.1 · 5.1% 22.2% 12.1% F B O D 40

· CHC Michael Busch vs Bello Edge — 0.155 · 88.4 · 8.3% 16.7% 14.3% F B O D 43

· CHC Michael Busch vs Gamboa — 0.155 · 88.4 · 6.2% 16.7% 13.8% F B O D 38

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Bello — 0.202 · 88.6 · 9.0% 18.2% 10.7% F B O D 48

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Gamboa Edge — 0.202 · 88.6 · 6.7% 18.2% 10.2% F B O D 43

· CHC Ian Happ vs Bello Edge — 0.193 · 89.3 · 9.3% 9.1% 12.6% F B O D 47

· CHC Ian Happ vs Gamboa — 0.193 · 89.3 · 6.9% 9.1% 10.4% F B O D 42

· BOS Nick Sogard vs Peterson Edge — 0.136 · 86.8 · 5.7% 9.1% 7.6% F B O D 35

· — Nick Sogard vs Holmes Edge — 0.136 · 86.8 · 4.9% 9.1% 7.0% F B O D 33

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Peterson Edge — 0.132 · 83.2 · 4.2% 8.3% 7.2% F B O D 31

· — Caleb Durbin COOL vs Holmes — 0.132 · 83.2 · 3.7% 8.3% 6.8% F B O D 29

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Peterson — 0.200 · 89.8 · 9.0% 0.0% 13.1% F B O D 46

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela HOT vs Peterson Edge — 0.160 · 86.3 · 5.9% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 37

· — Wilyer Abreu vs Holmes Edge — 0.200 · 89.8 · 7.8% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 43

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Peterson Edge — 0.142 · 87.7 · 6.5% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 36

· — Ceddanne Rafaela HOT vs Holmes — 0.160 · 86.3 · 5.1% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 35

· — Jarren Duran COOL vs Holmes Edge — 0.156 · 89.7 · 6.7% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 38

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs Peterson — 0.156 · 89.7 · 7.7% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 40

· — Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Holmes — 0.142 · 87.7 · 5.6% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 33

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Bello — 0.120 · 86.7 · 6.3% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 32

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Gamboa Edge — 0.120 · 86.7 · 4.7% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 29

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Bello — 0.090 · 86.0 · 3.3% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 24

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Gamboa Edge — 0.090 · 86.0 · 2.4% 0.0% 5.0% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Brayan Bello — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Alec Gamboa — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for David Peterson — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Clay Holmes — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Swanson Bregman Busch Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Swanson Bregman Busch Contreras Contreras

Legend

attack side — vs Bello fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Pete Crow-Armstrong — · 63

Pete Crow-Armstrong — · 58

Willson Contreras — · 55

Willson Contreras — · 52

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 6:05p · roof open

Park 0.91× Wind 13 mph in 63°F open

-18

↑

15 mph · in

62°F

6:05p

-17

↑

14 mph · in

61°F

7:05p · peak

-18

↑

14 mph · in

60°F

8:05p

-18

↑

14 mph · in

59°F

9:05p

-18

↑

14 mph · in

59°F

10:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.64× 63°F, wind 13 mph NE (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Brayan Bello · RHP 0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 63 C+ — · 14 0.297 90.6 10.2% 30.1%vs RHP 397 23.3% 25.0% 29.0% 36

2 Seiya Suzuki 48 D — WARM 79 0.202 88.6 9.0% 18.1%vs RHP 408 16.3% 18.2% 10.7% 31

3 Ian Happ 47 D — · 86 0.193 89.3 9.3% 23.5%vs RHP 401 16.7% 9.1% 12.6% 26

4 Dansby Swanson 44 D — COOL 114 0.188 89.5 7.5% 18.3%vs RHP 404 12.5% 20.0% 16.8% 10

5 Alex Bregman 44 D — WARM 116 0.190 88.1 6.8% 18.8%vs RHP 389 13.1% 22.2% 14.6% 28

6 Michael Busch 43 D — WARM 125 0.155 88.4 8.3% 12.5%vs RHP 404 13.3% 16.7% 14.3% 25

7 Carson Kelly 32 D — COOL 216 0.120 86.7 6.3% 9.1%vs RHP 403 8.0% 0.0% 6.1% 24

8 Nico Hoerner 24 D — WARM 244 0.090 86.0 3.3% 6.0%vs RHP 383 5.1% 0.0% 5.8% 40

vs Alec Gamboa · LHP 0.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.59 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 58 C — · 30 0.297 90.6 7.5% 31.4%vs LHP 397 23.3% 25.0% 26.9% 36

2 Seiya Suzuki 43 D — WARM 133 0.202 88.6 6.7% 30.8%vs LHP 408 16.3% 18.2% 10.2% 31

3 Ian Happ 42 D — · 141 0.193 89.3 6.9% 14.8%vs LHP 401 16.7% 9.1% 10.4% 26

4 Dansby Swanson 40 D — COOL 157 0.188 89.5 5.6% 26.1%vs LHP 404 12.5% 20.0% 15.3% 10

5 Alex Bregman 40 D — WARM 158 0.190 88.1 5.1% 18.4%vs LHP 389 13.1% 22.2% 12.1% 28

6 Michael Busch 38 D — WARM 176 0.155 88.4 6.2% 16.3%vs LHP 404 13.3% 16.7% 13.8% 25

7 Carson Kelly 29 D — COOL 232 0.120 86.7 4.7% 20.0%vs LHP 403 8.0% 0.0% 5.9% 24

8 Nico Hoerner 22 D — WARM 246 0.090 86.0 2.4% 8.3%vs LHP 383 5.1% 0.0% 5.0% 40

vs David Peterson · LHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.24 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 55 C — WARM 40 0.242 89.8 9.2% 26.7%vs LHP 405 19.4% 25.0% 25.7% 9

2 Wilyer Abreu 46 D — · 97 0.200 89.8 9.0% 14.3%vs LHP 406 15.0% 0.0% 13.1% 27

3 Jarren Duran 40 D — COOL 160 0.156 89.7 7.7% 10.0%vs LHP 401 13.4% 0.0% 9.6% 17

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 37 D — HOT 181 0.160 86.3 5.9% 15.6%vs LHP 382 11.7% 0.0% 11.1% 1

5 Andruw Monasterio 36 D — COOL 192 0.142 87.7 6.5% 16.1%vs LHP 390 9.7% 0.0% 9.9% 3

6 Nick Sogard 35 D — WARM 200 0.136 86.8 5.7% 16.7%vs LHP 381 11.1% 9.1% 7.6% 31

7 Caleb Durbin 31 D — COOL 219 0.132 83.2 4.2% 14.3%vs LHP 376 8.1% 8.3% 7.2% 30

vs Clay Holmes · RHP 0.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 52 C — WARM 50 0.242 89.8 8.0% 31.7%vs RHP 405 19.4% 25.0% 24.8% 9

2 Wilyer Abreu 43 D — · 126 0.200 89.8 7.8% 14.9%vs RHP 406 15.0% 0.0% 11.0% 27

3 Jarren Duran 38 D — COOL 177 0.156 89.7 6.7% 25.7%vs RHP 401 13.4% 0.0% 9.8% 17

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 35 D — HOT 199 0.160 86.3 5.1% 13.9%vs RHP 382 11.7% 0.0% 9.9% 1

5 Andruw Monasterio 33 D — COOL 207 0.142 87.7 5.6% 2.3%vs RHP 390 9.7% 0.0% 7.2% 3

6 Nick Sogard 33 D — WARM 212 0.136 86.8 4.9% 10.7%vs RHP 381 11.1% 9.1% 7.0% 31

7 Caleb Durbin 29 D — COOL 230 0.132 83.2 3.7% 16.7%vs RHP 376 8.1% 8.3% 6.8% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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