TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ WSH

Suppressed air · 0.80×

NYM @ WSH

Nationals Park · 6:45p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.15× Wind 11 mph in 68°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

6:45p

-4 ↑

7:45p

-4 ↑

8:45p

-5 ↑

9:45p

-5 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 6:45p at -4

Best of game Cj Abrams conv 15 · vs Proxy ⟷ Juan Soto conv 25 · vs Alvarez → edge: James Wood

ATTACK NYM Bullpen Proxy · NYM

leak 50

1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cj Abrams — C+ ●●○○○

2 Daylen Lile — C ●●○○○

3 James Wood — B ●●○○○

FADE Andrew Alvarez LHP · WSH

leak 44

0.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.41 · stingy — thin edge

1 Juan Soto — C+ ●●●●○

2 Carson Benge — D ●●●○○

3 Francisco Lindor — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: Match 20.9% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Juan Soto vs Alvarez — 0.250 · 92.7 · 9.0% 23.1% 26.4% F B O C+ 64

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Proxy — 0.237 · 89.6 · 10.3% 0.0% 29.8% F B O C+ 64

· WSH Daylen Lile COOL vs Proxy — 0.185 · 88.6 · 9.8% 12.5% 16.4% F B O C 56

· WSH James Wood ✶ COOL vs Proxy — 0.242 · 95.2 · 19.0% 0.0% 20.9% F B O B 76

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Alvarez Edge — 0.197 · 91.4 · 7.2% 7.7% 12.6% F B O C 51

· WSH Dylan Crews COOL vs Proxy — 0.145 · 90.2 · 9.2% 10.0% 9.7% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· NYM Carson Benge vs Alvarez — 0.145 · 88.8 · 6.5% 23.1% 15.8% F B O D 47

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Alvarez Edge — 0.126 · 86.7 · 5.9% 9.1% 7.8% F B O D 41

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Alvarez Edge — 0.127 · 89.6 · 6.0% 7.7% 8.9% F B O D 42

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Alvarez Edge — 0.169 · 90.7 · 9.6% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 46

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Proxy — 0.165 · 88.0 · 4.8% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 45

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Alvarez — 0.120 · 89.4 · 6.3% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 38

· WSH Jacob Young vs Proxy — 0.140 · 87.8 · 5.8% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 43

· NYM Brett Baty vs Alvarez — 0.139 · 90.5 · 7.7% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 43

· WSH Jorbit Vivas vs Proxy — 0.085 · 83.0 · 3.1% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 33

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Proxy — 0.033 · 85.0 · 0.9% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Andrew Alvarez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for NYM Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Soto Benge Wood Abrams Lile

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Juan Soto — · 64

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 1.15× Wind 11 mph in 68°F open

-4

↑

11 mph · in

68°F

6:45p · peak

-4

↑

11 mph · in

66°F

7:45p

-4

↑

11 mph · in

64°F

8:45p

-5

↑

11 mph · in

63°F

9:45p

-5

↑

11 mph · in

62°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.80× 68°F, wind 11 mph NNW (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andrew Alvarez · LHP 0.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.41 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto 64 C+ — WARM 13 0.250 92.7 9.0% 14.6%vs LHP 403 20.9% 23.1% 26.4% 38

2 Francisco Lindor 51 C — · 60 0.197 91.4 7.2% 13.9%vs LHP 390 15.4% 7.7% 12.6% 39

3 Carson Benge 47 D — WARM 89 0.145 88.8 6.5% 15.6%vs LHP 392 11.2% 23.1% 15.8% 38

4 Francisco Alvarez 46 D — WARM 94 0.169 90.7 9.6% 16.7%vs LHP 401 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 25

5 Brett Baty 43 D — WARM 135 0.139 90.5 7.7% 0.0%vs LHP 402 6.7% 0.0% 8.1% 18

6 Bo Bichette 42 D — COOL 143 0.127 89.6 6.0% 21.2%vs LHP 390 10.4% 7.7% 8.9% 40

7 Marcus Semien 41 D — COOL 152 0.126 86.7 5.9% 10.8%vs LHP 391 9.9% 9.1% 7.8% 39

8 A.J. Ewing 38 D — COOL 175 0.120 89.4 6.3% 9.1%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 31

vs NYM Bullpen Proxy 1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 76 B — COOL 4 0.242 95.2 19.0% 34.1% 413 22.1% 0.0% 20.9% 24

2 Cj Abrams 64 C+ — · 23 0.237 89.6 10.3% 19.6% 397 30.8% 0.0% 29.8% 33

3 Daylen Lile 56 C — COOL 48 0.185 88.6 9.8% 10.6% 401 11.5% 12.5% 16.4% 30

4 Dylan Crews 51 C — COOL 83 0.145 90.2 9.2% 11.9% 405 13.3% 10.0% 9.7% 36

5 Keibert Ruiz 45 D — COOL 145 0.165 88.0 4.8% 8.9% 380 10.4% 0.0% 10.6% 21

6 Jacob Young 43 D — WARM 165 0.140 87.8 5.8% 8.8% 399 6.1% 0.0% 9.0% 20

7 Jorbit Vivas 33 D — WARM 226 0.085 83.0 3.1% 4.0% 392 2.2% 0.0% 7.7% 21

8 Nasim Nunez 25 D — COOL 248 0.033 85.0 0.9% 1.2% 372 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 16

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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